IA-Paul, NH-Romney, SC-Gingrich

[fezzyfestoon]

Then what? Let's also say it goes FL-Gingrich, NV-Paul, ME-Romney or some split like that. Does the base take Paul seriously? Do either Romney or Gingrich get a boost or start to tumble? I usually don't like to bother with the infinite hypotheticals at this point, but this one seems possible and potentially very interesting.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't see Gingrich winning SC if he finishes third in Iowa. Of that were to happen, who knows, but I doubt it will drag on that long. Plus, the NV caucuses are pretty irrelevant if I remember. If Romney finishes 2nd in Iowa, and wins NH handily, I expect he'll win SC over newt.

[tmthforu94]

I don't see Gingrich winning SC if he finishes third in Iowa. Of that were to happen, who knows, but I doubt it will drag on that long. Plus, the NV caucuses are pretty irrelevant if I remember. If Romney finishes 2nd in Iowa, and wins NH handily, I expect he'll win SC over newt.

Also, keep in mind, Newt will be lucky to finish 3rd in Iowa. At this point, a 5th or 6th place finish would NOT shock me.

[Mehmentum]

What I think is more likely than Gingrich getting SC is either Perry, Bachmann, or Santorumn getting a strong 2nd in Iowa and then winning SC.

Bachmann and Santorumn have high favorables in Iowa, but Perry has lots of money, I think either of these three could become the next flavor (perhaps even surpassing Paul in Iowa if the conservatives are unified enough.)

That being said, Paul would have a good chance in Nevada (as well as the many numerous caucuses that occur before super tuesday like Maine, Minnesotta, Alaska, and Washington)

I think Paul is a stronger candidate than many people give him credit for.  He is one of the few people in the race that has a strong orginization, money, and a deeply committed base.  Something which all of the flavors lack.

[Lief 🗽]

Whoever wins South Carolina will probably win the nomination, so in this scenario it's Newt.

[Gustaf]

If Gingrich gets 3rd in Iowa I think the narrative would kill him. He's a perceived front-runner or at least close to. He'd become 2008 Romney in that scenario, once Romney takes New Hampshire. I don't see him getting South Carolina after that.

I actually would be extremely, extremely surprised to see anything other than a Romney victory if Iowa is Paul, Romney, Gingrich, in that order.

[Badger]

I think Gingrich could survive 3rd in IA, though no guarantee. The rest of the pack will drop out (or be knocked out of serious contention) after IA (& Huntsman after NH). Will SC really accept a Romney vs. Paul race? I doubt it, and the mantle for that role is likely "the last right winger standing", and by default who else would that be? I can't envision Perry parlaying a 4th place finish in Iowa into being the "non-Paul alternative anti-Romney".