Santorum: No poll surge yet? Great!

[Keystone Phil]

And I agree. If he's going to surge, he needs it to be as close to January as possible.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/politicolive/1211/Santorum_Great_not_to_have_had_boomlet_.html?showall

[Yelnoc]

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Let's say that Newt underestimates Santorum and Huntsman and the two of them hit him hard during their Lincoln-Douglas debates.  Gingrich flubs the Dec 10 and 15 national debates, and some campaigning by the Romney and Paul folks is enough to pop his bubble by the week of the 18th.  That means, one week before Christmas, Romney is back in the lead, with Huntsman and Santorum the only undamaged goods while Bachmann and Perry still theoretically able to make a comeback. 

Say there is a lull in the weeks before Christmas, but then on Dec 27 is a National debate on Ion Television.  Is it safe to say that whatever non-Romney candidate "wins" that debate will win Iowa?  Because if so, I am starting to see a possible path to the nomination for Frothy.  It's not as if he has trouble articulating himself in debates, he just never gets any questions.

[Averroës Nix]

The candidates with serious organization in Iowa (Perry, Santorum, and Paul) have been underrated and under-covered, especially since candidates running these kinds of campaigns typically improve their standing in the last few weeks and over-perform relative to polls in the caucus itself.

[sg0508]

Oh yeah.  He's electable for sure in the general (sarcasm on)

[Averroës Nix]

Oh yeah.  He's electable for sure in the general (sarcasm on)

Does that have anything to do with his prospects in Iowa or are you just using this thread as an avenue for some Frothy-bashing?

Hypothetically speaking, I find it difficult to believe that Santorum would do any worse than Perry, Gingrich, Cain, Bachmann, or Paul. And I'm not entirely sure that Romney would do much better.

With social issues and foreign policy in the background, Santorum really isn't that extreme compared to his fellow contenders.

[Tender Branson]

Palin could send him a Christmas present by endorsing him on Dec. 23rd.

Then he surges by 10% in Iowa ...

[Joe Biden 2020]

Palin could send him a Christmas present by endorsing him on Dec. 23rd.

Then he surges by 10% in Iowa ...

And crashes and burns elsewhere...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

of course, the jmfcsts will never go for Santorum...but that wont stop many (meaning, more than one) on this board from thinking so...

[Stranger in a strange land]

Say there is a lull in the weeks before Christmas, but then on Dec 27 is a National debate on Ion Television.  Is it safe to say that whatever non-Romney candidate "wins" that debate will win Iowa?  Because if so, I am starting to see a possible path to the nomination for Frothy.  It's not as if he has trouble articulating himself in debates, he just never gets any questions.

Santorum has no viable path to the nomination. He lost reelection by 19 points. Even if he wins Iowa, he doesn't have the funds or organizational structure to run a national campaign. More likely, he'll just end up splitting the SoCon vote and paving the way for Romney to win the nomination. Alternatively, it may also produce a scenario where:

IA - Santorum (narrowly)
NH - Romney
SC - Gingrich
NV - Romney
FL - Gingrich (narrowly)
with Paul getting 10-15% in each state. Paul would have an outside shot of winning a few caucuses in sparsely populated Western states at this point. Santorum would also have some momentum from Iowa, and would also be getting around 10% in each state. Perry no longer has a viable path to the nomination, but he can stay in and use his war chest to launch negative attacks against one or more candidates. The result of all this could be a brokered convention in Tampa. Not likely, but a Santorum win in Iowa opens the door to that outcome.

[Yelnoc]

Say there is a lull in the weeks before Christmas, but then on Dec 27 is a National debate on Ion Television.  Is it safe to say that whatever non-Romney candidate "wins" that debate will win Iowa?  Because if so, I am starting to see a possible path to the nomination for Frothy.  It's not as if he has trouble articulating himself in debates, he just never gets any questions.

Santorum has no viable path to the nomination. He lost reelection by 19 points. Even if he wins Iowa, he doesn't have the funds or organizational structure to run a national campaign. More likely, he'll just end up splitting the SoCon vote and paving the way for Romney to win the nomination. Alternatively, it may also produce a scenario where:

IA - Santorum (narrowly)
NH - Romney
SC - Gingrich
NV - Romney
FL - Gingrich (narrowly)
with Paul getting 10-15% in each state. Paul would have an outside shot of winning a few caucuses in sparsely populated Western states at this point. Santorum would also have some momentum from Iowa, and would also be getting around 10% in each state. Perry no longer has a viable path to the nomination, but he can stay in and use his war chest to launch negative attacks against one or more candidates. The result of all this could be a brokered convention in Tampa. Not likely, but a Santorum win in Iowa opens the door to that outcome.

That makes no sense.  Why would Gingrich win anything after losing Iowa (to anyone other than Paul, that is).  Especially in a scenario where his bubble bursts just as the primaries are about to start.  Santorum may have no infrastructure, but as we have seen, infrastructure matters less than national approval ratings and debate performances.  If Santorum looks like the only viable stop-Romney candidate, I am confident the Tea Party will coalesce around him by Super Tuesday.

Oh, and Nevada is February 4, while Florida is January 31.

[Phony Moderate]

http://bit.ly/uymQkn

[anvi]

I'll surely grant Santorum the idea that the best time to surge is when the voting happens.  Still, when you're comforting yourself with ideas like, "whew, I'm still behind.  Yay!", things don't exactly look promising yet.  The best thing Santorum can do is to outshine Newt on the debate stage.  It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.  If Newt crashes on his own, and I believe he will, Santorum will be the next conservative in line to benefit, since the others aren't getting anywhere.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

http://bit.ly/uymQkn

This sums it up better... http://lmgtfy.com/?q=santorum&l=1

[Keystone Phil]

Say there is a lull in the weeks before Christmas, but then on Dec 27 is a National debate on Ion Television.  Is it safe to say that whatever non-Romney candidate "wins" that debate will win Iowa?  Because if so, I am starting to see a possible path to the nomination for Frothy.  It's not as if he has trouble articulating himself in debates, he just never gets any questions.

Santorum has no viable path to the nomination. He lost reelection by 19 points.

Ah, yes. The one directly affects the other.

[Eraserhead]

The problem is, of course, that no poll surge is ever going to come for Rick.