UT-Dan Jones: Believe it or not, Utah's going to be a toss-up race

[Tender Branson]

47% Jim Matheson (D)
47% Orrin Hatch (R-Inc.)

46% Jason Chaffetz (R)
45% Jim Matheson (D)

Hatch's most likely GOP challenger appears to be Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah. In a primary race, 40 percent of poll respondents said they would vote for Hatch and 41 percent for Chaffetz.

Among a slightly smaller sample of voters who said they were likely to vote in a Republican primary, Hatch was ahead of Chaffetz, 47 percent to 44 percent.

A majority of Utah voters believe Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, has been in office too long and should be replaced, a new Deseret News/KSL-TV poll shows.

The poll by Dan Jones & Associates found only 38 percent of registered voters agree that it's important to re-elect Hatch in 2012 because of his seniority. Fifty-nine percent said after 36 years, it's time for someone new.

The statewide poll of 406 registered voters, conducted June 13-16, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. Dan Jones & Associates also does polling for Hatch.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700145325/Poll-Time-for-Hatch-to-go.html?pg=1

[Keystone Phil]

No, it won't.

[The Professor]

Obama will be at the top of the ticket in 2012 which will boost black turnout and that might be enough to push Mattheson over the edge

[Tender Branson]

Obama will be at the top of the ticket in 2012 which will boost black turnout and that might be enough to push Mattheson over the edge

There are Blacks in Utah ?



No, seriously, the race should remain close for another year or so and then I expect the Republican - whoever it may be - to break slightly away from Matheson and then to win 55-45.

[JacobNC]

If Romney or Huntsman is the GOP nominee, Matheson will definitely not ride Obama's coattails to victory.

And I'm rooting for Matheson and everything - but is "Dan Jones" a legitimate pollster?

[Tender Branson]

If Romney or Huntsman is the GOP nominee, Matheson will definitely not ride Obama's coattails to victory.

And I'm rooting for Matheson and everything - but is "Dan Jones" a legitimate pollster?

Dan Jones is the best UT pollster out there.

They got all the recent election results right within about 3-5%.

[tmthforu94]

Obama will be at the top of the ticket in 2012 which will boost black turnout and that might be enough to push Mattheson over the edge

Obama being at the top of the ticket will certainly hurt Matheson more than it will help him, given Obama's terrible approval's in Utah.

[King]

If Romney or Hunstman is the nominee, Chaffetz will win without contest.  Otherwise, it will be swing with adv Chaffetz.

[Franzl]

Has Matheson declared that he's running?

[Meeker]

Has Matheson declared that he's running?

Yeah, when did this happen? I must've missed it.

[bullmoose88]

I won't miss Orrin Hatch.

[Niemeyerite]

I can't believe a democrat is leading in Utah... but, anyways, the republican nominee will win. Utah isn't" independent" enough... Remember that Nebraska's 3rd CD election in 2006, it was supposed to be a close one, with the best democrat candidate... but finally, the republican won 55-45

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It would take a perfect storm of super great Dem year and some still divine intervention to make this happen. As good a pollster as Dan Jones is, or their reputation rather, I would not think it imprudent to wait for further polling from them and others to ensure this just isn't the one bad poll of the season here.

[DrScholl]

You never know what can happen, that's all I'll say. The odds are terrible, but it's not impossible for some freak of nature Democrat to break through statewide in Utah.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/CandidateDetail.html?CandidateID=6572

[© tweed]

I guess a key precondition would be no Romney heading the GOP ticket.

[SamInTheSouth]

This talk of Utah being competitive is comical.  It is the most Republican state in the country.  There is no chance of a Democrat taking that Senate seat, even Matheson, especially with Obama dragging down the rest of his party on his sinking ship of an administration.

[auburntiger]

Remember when Massachusetts was supposed to be a shoe-in for the democrat? I know its utah and all, but Should the republicans really take this one lightly?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I was a little bit sad when Matheson said he wouldn't run, but after closely looking over his record and positions, I don't really care anymore.  I had a hard time finding the one issue he's liberal on.

[pbrower2a]

This talk of Utah being competitive is comical.  It is the most Republican state in the country.  There is no chance of a Democrat taking that Senate seat, even Matheson, especially with Obama dragging down the rest of his party on his sinking ship of an administration.

Maine has two Republican Senators. West Virginia has two Democratic Senators.

Strange things can happen.

[Miles]

This talk of Utah being competitive is comical.  It is the most Republican state in the country.  There is no chance of a Democrat taking that Senate seat, even Matheson, especially with Obama dragging down the rest of his party on his sinking ship of an administration.

Maine has two Republican Senators. West Virginia has two Democratic Senators.

Strange things can happen.

I don't think its that strange that WV has 2 Democrats, considering that WV is a Democratic state. But yeah, I agree with your point.

[pbrower2a]

This talk of Utah being competitive is comical.  It is the most Republican state in the country.  There is no chance of a Democrat taking that Senate seat, even Matheson, especially with Obama dragging down the rest of his party on his sinking ship of an administration.

Maine has two Republican Senators. West Virginia has two Democratic Senators.

Strange things can happen.

I don't think its that strange that WV has 2 Democrats, considering that WV is a Democratic state. But yeah, I agree with your point.

I think that President Obama is simply a poor cultural match for five states (Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia) that Bill Clinton won reliably. That he is a better match for such states as Indiana and Virginia, neither of which had voted for any Democratic nominee for President since 1964, or North Carolina (which no Democrat has won since 1976) says much about the President as a campaigner.