Mason Dixon: Romney slightly ahead in SW Florida

[Tender Branson]

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA VOTER POLL - OCTOBER 2011

400 likely voters interviewed in Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties October 24-26, 2011 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, FL. The margin for error is +/-5%.

The survey also includes an additional sampling of 300 likely Republican primary voters. These respondents were only asked the question related to the GOP race and not the other questions. The margin for error on this group is +/-5.8%.

27% Romney
22% Cain
11% Gingrich
  7% Paul
  5% Perry
  2% Bachmann
  1% Santorum
25% Undecided

QUESTION: If the 2012 Presidential Election were held today, would you vote for Democrat Barack Obama, or the Republican candidate?

60% Republican
34% Obama

http://www.abc-7.com/story/15915649/2011/10/31/latestmasondixonpollpresident

[Meeker]

What a bizarre poll.

[M]

I wonder if Romney will get a bounce from winning the Charlotte, Collier and Lee County primary.

[Simfan34]

I don't care.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

when is the SW Florida primary?

[ilikeverin]

I don't care.

My parents live in Lee County, so I forwarded it to them.  I guess they didn't poll my dad, the lone Huntsman supporter in the counties

[California8429]

Anyone have SW Florida of these counties info from the 08 primary results?

[Thomas D]

I took a poll of my living room. Romney doesn't do as well there.

[RI]

Anyone have SW Florida of these counties info from the 08 primary results?

In 2008, here were the combined results of these three counties:

Romney: 40.11%
McCain: 32.29%
Giuliani: 14.93%
Huckabee: 8.26%
Paul: 2.72%
Thompson: 1.36%
Other: 0.33%

[Lief 🗽]

So Romney is doing worse than he did in 2008. Neat!

[cavalcade]

So Romney is doing worse than he did in 2008. Neat!

I'm pretty sure most of Romney's 2008 supporters are now Cain supporters.  Similarly, Romney's current supporters probably include at least as many Giuliani 08 voters as Romney 08 voters.

[Lief 🗽]

That's a very true observation. I doubt there are many Romney 2008/Romney 2012 supporters.

[King]

To be fair, 2008 Romney and 2012 Romney are different candidates.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

To be fair, 2008 Romney and 2012 Romney are different candidates.

As are September 2011 and October 2011 Romney

[Gustaf]

So Romney is doing worse than he did in 2008. Neat!

I'm pretty sure most of Romney's 2008 supporters are now Cain supporters.  Similarly, Romney's current supporters probably include at least as many Giuliani 08 voters as Romney 08 voters.

Yeah, I was just going to say. Romney was the conservative (although non-evangelical) candidate in 2008, running on an anti-establishment image.

Now he's the moderate establishment candidate.

[Mr. Morden]

It's a bit strange to call Romney 2008 "anti-establishment".  The "establishment" was more for McCain by the time of the Florida primary, that's true.  But that's because by that point he was winning.  Six weeks earlier, the establishment had been more pro-Romney, and McCain was the insurgent.  Really, the establishment will go for whoever they think is going to win anyway.

[Simfan34]

I don't care.

My parents live in Lee County, so I forwarded it to them.  I guess they didn't poll my dad, the lone Huntsman supporter in the counties

I like your dad.

[The Mikado]

That's a very true observation. I doubt there are many Romney 2008/Romney 2012 supporters.

Winfield's probably the only one.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The only voting groups I can think of that have stuck with Romney would be: Mormons + commuter base in Massachusetts/New Hampshire + papists in Iowa (where Romney was the more moderate choice) + the wealthy suburbs of Detroit in Michigan.

[Zarn]

At my house in Burlington County NJ, it is 75% "Paul" and 25% "meh." In 2007-8, it was a mixture of McCain and Giuliani. Obama also has a 0% approval rating with the New York Rangers being the only liked professional hockey team. When measured up against the poll results Mason Dixon has here and Thomas D's polling of his house, it is clear how the primaries will unfold. Anyone who doesn't see it is a dumb, obviously.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Romney was the establishment candidate last time, only he was not the moderate candidate then.  He got the upper income suburban households, and will do so again.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

But will he win the crucial Kalawao County primary?