Cain campaign in turmoil, yet he leads the polls

[Mr. Morden]

This article gives a picture of a campaign in turmoil:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/27/us/politics/as-cain-touts-management-skills-ex-aides-tell-of-chaos.html?_r=1&hp

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So yeah, Cain is doing everything "wrong", yet he still leads the polls.  How is that possible?

Well, here's a pretty good take on how Cain (and to a lesser extent, Gingrich) are actually much more media savvy than they get credit for:

link

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[NHI]

I don't think it can last much longer though. Now Cain could get lucky and win Iowa, but I don't see it happening. It will either be Romney or Perry that gets the state, or a surprise upset by Gingrich/Bachmann.

[Paul Kemp]

So people are starting to figure out that Cain is pretty much on a book tour?

[Jacobtm]

For those of you who don't read 538, Nate Silver just pegged Cain as a 1-in-300,000 outlier.

His polling numbers, contrasted with his low level of insider support, electoral experience etc. make him unlike any candidate ever. No other ''outsider'' candidate has ever done this well in the polls.

We'll have to wait for the elections, but he definitely is doing something that hasn't been done before.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/27/herman-cain-outlier/

[The Vorlon]

999 is loony tunes.

The guy is just not ready for prime time.






And yet... I actually like the guy.....

[King]

*smoke*
We've never had a candidate like Herman Cain

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

This article gives a picture of a campaign in turmoil:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/27/us/politics/as-cain-touts-management-skills-ex-aides-tell-of-chaos.html?_r=1&hp

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So yeah, Cain is doing everything "wrong", yet he still leads the polls.  How is that possible?

Well, here's a pretty good take on how Cain (and to a lesser extent, Gingrich) are actually much more media savvy than they get credit for:

link

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He's falling, he just isn't being such a massive idiot as Perry and thus his fall is gradual so far. He isn't polling as well as we was earlier.

[Lief 🗽]

He isn't polling as well as we was earlier.

False.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

He isn't polling as well as we was earlier.

False.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

26%-37%-28%-21% (Clear decline)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

27%-13%-17% (Another decline)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html

31%-32%-23% (Ditto)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

26%-25%-25%-24%

Looks like a pretty obvious fall to me.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I presume his 'book and motivational speaking tour'... hasn't got staff in IA and NH yet?

At least Trump's goal was blatant self-promotion.... gotta feel sorry for the GOP, they're so desperate to avoid Romney that they're being fooled again.

That slow-reveal smile is basically a 'I don't know how it happened either' smile. 

[Lief 🗽]

Dude... you can't do a trend line between polls from different companies. It doesn't work like that.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Dude... you can't do a trend line between polls from different companies. It doesn't work like that.

If the trend is obvious enough I can.

[sentinel]

I think Cain's support is in the polls only. When it comes to GOTV you're going to see him fail miserably.

[redcommander]

Because people aren't paying that much attention to who they are voting for yet. Dean and Clark didn't slug it out to get the Democratic nomination in 04's primaries.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He isn't polling as well as we was earlier.

False.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

26%-37%-28%-21% (Clear decline)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

27%-13%-17% (Another decline)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/sc/south_carolina_republican_presidential_primary-1590.html

31%-32%-23% (Ditto)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-1452.html

26%-25%-25%-24%

Looks like a pretty obvious fall to me.

LOL, that 37% is a university poll with 181 responses.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I realize some may consider this hyperbolic; but the current success of the Cain campaign is really the most terrifying thing to me right now in American politics. It exemplifies everything that is wrong with, well, everything. The media, the voting population, everything. That some people are even jokingly supporting the campaign isn't any comfort to me. I take some comfort in being fairly confident he won't actually win the nomination, but if our politics has seriously become this stupid and blatantly media driven, if our politics has gotten to the point that we have literally no standards, we are screwed.

[Torie]

Nah, Cain is a charming man, with a great temperament, and a compelling bio. Folks want to believe that he is competent and viable, and that his ideas have some nexus to mitigating what ails the Fruited Plain. Give them time for reality to sink in; it will. 

[Marokai Backbeat]

Nah, Cain is a charming man, with a great temperament, and a compelling bio. Folks want to believe that he is competent and viable, and that his ideas have some nexus to mitigating what ails the Fruited Plain. Give them time for reality to sink in; it will. 

If you say so, my friend..

[Mr. Morden]

I realize some may consider this hyperbolic; but the current success of the Cain campaign is really the most terrifying thing to me right now in American politics. It exemplifies everything that is wrong with, well, everything. The media, the voting population, everything. That some people are even jokingly supporting the campaign isn't any comfort to me. I take some comfort in being fairly confident he won't actually win the nomination, but if our politics has seriously become this stupid and blatantly media driven, if our politics has gotten to the point that we have literally no standards, we are screwed.

I don't think Cain will win the nomination, but I think it's entirely possible that one of the two major parties will nominate someone as manifestly unprepared for office as he is within the next few decades.  It's always going to be a possibility as long as the primary system is in place.  This is why we should ditch primaries, and go back to deciding party nominees in smoke-filled rooms.

Then we wouldn't have this situation is which several of the more qualified candidates don't want to run because they don't want to go through a two year campaign, and half of the candidates who *do* run are doing so because they want to sell books and/or become media stars.

Of course, it also wouldn't be as entertaining.

[redcommander]

I realize some may consider this hyperbolic; but the current success of the Cain campaign is really the most terrifying thing to me right now in American politics. It exemplifies everything that is wrong with, well, everything. The media, the voting population, everything. That some people are even jokingly supporting the campaign isn't any comfort to me. I take some comfort in being fairly confident he won't actually win the nomination, but if our politics has seriously become this stupid and blatantly media driven, if our politics has gotten to the point that we have literally no standards, we are screwed.

What's more alarming is that he could actually be elected President if the economy goes into free fall again. Republicans shouldn't take that risk, even if he is a charming and charismatic man.

[Minnesota Mike]

This won't help.

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