The 13 keys to the Presidency

[Mr.Phips]

Many people here have probably heard of Professor Allen Lichtman's "13 Keys To The Presidency".  They apparently have predicted every Presidential election going back to 1860 save for 2000.  A candidate needs at least 7 keys in his favor to win.
Here are the 13 keys:

1. Did the incumbent party gain House seats in the previous midterm election?
2. Was there a serious contest for the nomination of the incumbent party candidate?   
3. Was there major third party activity during the election year?
4. Is the incumbent party candidate the sitting president?
5. Was the yearly mean per-capita rate of growth in real Gross National Product during the incumbent administration equal to or greater than the mean rate of the previous eight years, and equal to or greater than 1 percent?
6. Is the election year a time of recession or depression?
7. Did the incumbent president initiate major changes in national policy?
8.Was there major social unrest during the incumbent administration?
9. Was the incumbent administration tainted by major scandal?
10. Did the incumbent party suffer a major setback in foreign or military policy?
11. Did it achieve a major success in foreign or military policy?
12. Is the incumbent party candidate charismatic or a national hero?
13. Is the challenging party candidate charismatic or a national hero?

It appears that Obama currently has nine keys in his favor, two more than needed to win.   
However, there are some problems with this method.   

Take a look at 1992.  In 1992, Bush had only six keys, just enough to lose.  However, had either Perot or Buchanan not run, he would have had seven keys, enough to win, making the "keys" wrong.  Does anybody really think Buchanan or Perot running was the difference between victory and defeat for Bush?

Another election where the keys could have been wrong is 1968.  Humpherey had five keys in his favor that year.  However, had Johnson run for reelection and not had a primary challenge, he would have had seven keys in his favor, enough to win.  Does anybody believe that Johnson could have won reelection in 1968?

[Averroës Nix]

There's something eerily familiar about this...

EDIT: You'll probably find this interesting, too.

Hope this helps.