With a field this volatile...

[Simfan34]

...I simply don't see how how the GOP can avoid going to the convention. At this time in 2008, McCain was gaining steam, while Guiliani was starting to peter out, as was Thompson. Today, we still seem to be in that "flavour-of-the-month" phase that we all thought would be over by now leading to an easy Romney nomination. Enter Perry, and there wasn't a doubt it would come between them. Now Herman Cain is in the lead, again, with Gingrich not too far behind. Perry is rapidly becoming third-tier, and Jon "fricking-Mormon" Huntsman is suddenly polling double digits in New Hampshire.

There's no stablilty whatsoever in this field, and unless the electorate somehow decides that one candiate would make the best nominee, we're going to have canidates just win primaries. Thanks to the proportional allocation of delegates, and the virtual end of Super Tuesday, there won't be such a thing as a "knock-out" victory, and I wouldn't be surprised if we have the same eight candiates (or more) standing on the debate stage in April.

At this point, I think, anything is possible. Mitt Romney might go down to 10%, Huntsman to 20%. Bachmann could make a resurgence. Palin could jump in. Trump might regain attention. Buddy Roemer might suddenly sit at 5%.  Bachmann could make a comeback. This race is simply so unpredictable, indeed, random, that such things could happen.

It won't end well. I'm split 50/50 on this, but either a moderate or a conservative candidate will be nominated. If the economy goes south, people might become so certain in Obama's defeat that I could see an independent run- whether it be from the right or the center.

[Wonkish1]

Seriously what is with this McCain had money at this time last cycle, McCain was gaining steam at this time, McCain was getting endorsements at this time.

McCain was near flat broke at this time last cycle, he had crashed completely in the polls, his staff and all of his paid consultants, pollsters, etc. deserted him because he couldn't afford anything. He couldn't get an endorsement if he!! froze over.

In December he got the Union Leader endorsement in New Hampshire out of the blue. That is when he started his comeback in the polls in New Hampshire. Then he ended outperforming his polling in Iowa because of people picking him as their 2nd choice given the way the caucus system works in Iowa.

He arrived in New Hampshire still broke and with out any other endorsements or anything, but his polling numbers in New Hampshire and gotten much better with his beating the expectations in Iowa and the Union Leader endorsement a month earlier.

McCain in 2008, is the ultimate extremely late comeback kid surge of the last couple decades. Even bigger than Kerry's in 2004 and possibly even Clinton's in 1992.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

With a primary as contentious as the 2008 Democratic primary, with Hillary Clinton supporters threatening to vote for McCain if she didn't get the nomination and vice-versa I really can't believe an unsettled field will hurt the GOP.  The base will rally to the nominee against Obama, even if that means having a split convention

[Mehmentum]

There's no stablilty whatsoever in this field, and unless the electorate somehow decides that one candiate would make the best nominee, we're going to have canidates just win primaries. Thanks to the proportional allocation of delegates, and the virtual end of Super Tuesday, there won't be such a thing as a "knock-out" victory, and I wouldn't be surprised if we have the same eight candiates (or more) standing on the debate stage in April.

At this point, I think, anything is possible. Mitt Romney might go down to 10%, Huntsman to 20%. Bachmann could make a resurgence. Palin could jump in. Trump might regain attention. Buddy Roemer might suddenly sit at 5%.  Bachmann could make a comeback. This race is simply so unpredictable, indeed, random, that such things could happen.

I agree with most of this, but I also think that it would'tn be that damaging, beyond giving Obama more time to prepare and raise money while the Republicans waste time and money (as well as their image) against each other.  In the end I think they will rally around the nominee (anybody but Obama, after all). 

[cavalcade]

Well, people have to start running out of money at some point.

Romney and Perry will probably run out just after Super Tuesday if they don't have a chance of winning/piling up enough delegates to influence a convention.

Paul is a special case.

Everyone else probably needs to win one out of IA, NH, NV, and SC to stay in the race beyond SC.  I doubt that two different candidates other than Perry and Romney are winners in those first four states (and if so, say Bachmann in IA and Cain in SC, Perry likely drops out).

So by the time the dust clears on Super Tuesday and the winner-take-all primaries start, it should be whittled down to Romney and 1-2 other people, plus Paul.

[Mr. Morden]

It's December 2007, the GOP field is so volatile, how can they avoid a brokered convention?

It's January 2004, we're heading into Iowa, and it's a virtual 4-way tie, how can the Dems avoid a brokered convention?

It's February 1996, Forbes just won Arizona after Dole won Iowa and Buchanan won NH.  Things are so volatile.  How can the GOP avoid a brokered convention?

It's March 1992, and we've had five different candidates score victories in the first six primaries (!).  How can the Dems possibly avoid a brokered convention?

[labred82]

The strongest GOP candidate (imo) is one who isn't running - Huckabee. He could well defeat Obama in a landslide in the general election. As well as the GOP base, he appeals to the old school populist Democrats who have been abandoned by the Obama Administration.

[Peeperkorn]

...I simply don't see how how the GOP can avoid going to the convention

Guns?

[Wonkish1]

The strongest GOP candidate (imo) is one who isn't running - Huckabee. He could well defeat Obama in a landslide in the general election. As well as the GOP base, he appeals to the old school populist Democrats who have been abandoned by the Obama Administration.

No he isn't. He would probably the worst candidate to run besides Bachmann.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

The strongest GOP candidate (imo) is one who isn't running - Huckabee. He could well defeat Obama in a landslide in the general election. As well as the GOP base, he appeals to the old school populist Democrats who have been abandoned by the Obama Administration.

Huckabee would have been a very strong candidate I'm surprised he decided not to run

If Obama wins a Huckabee/Christie or Christie/Huckabee 2016 ticket could easily be a 300+ electoral vote victory for the GOP

[Wonkish1]

The strongest GOP candidate (imo) is one who isn't running - Huckabee. He could well defeat Obama in a landslide in the general election. As well as the GOP base, he appeals to the old school populist Democrats who have been abandoned by the Obama Administration.

Huckabee would have been a very strong candidate I'm surprised he decided not to run

If Obama wins a Huckabee/Christie or Christie/Huckabee 2016 ticket could easily be a 300+ electoral vote victory for the GOP

Huckabee would not be a strong candidate. The guy knows next to 0 about economics and it would show every single day on the campaign trail. He is among the worst possible picks the GOP could make. Glad he's not running.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

In October 2007, Giuliani had nearly peaked. He was leaking the crowded field, but it was going into December when he started to fall back and McCain began to surge. Things  will shape up and they will not go to the convention unsettled.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Huck's not running, you can tell that by listening to his show.  

And Huntsman...just isnt worth talking about - he's way too liberal to win the GOP nomination, regardless if he polls 10% or 15% in NH.  Forget about him.

Unless Perry can quickly learn how to speak on his feet (which aint likely), he will end up like polling around Bachmann's numbers.

Right now the competition is between Cain/Newt/Romney.

And there is always the possibility of someone else jumping into the race (if Cain implodes, which is a very real possibility).

[Jacobtm]

It's December 2007, the GOP field is so volatile, how can they avoid a brokered convention?

It's January 2004, we're heading into Iowa, and it's a virtual 4-way tie, how can the Dems avoid a brokered convention?

It's February 1996, Forbes just won Arizona after Dole won Iowa and Buchanan won NH.  Things are so volatile.  How can the GOP avoid a brokered convention?

It's March 1992, and we've had five different candidates score victories in the first six primaries (!).  How can the Dems possibly avoid a brokered convention?

[Averroës Nix]

And there is always the possibility of someone else jumping into the race (if Cain implodes, which is a very real possibility).

If Cain died today, who would jump in?