Which map is most likely next year?

[Wonkish1]

Seriously, Wonkish, up your game. That first map is absurd, especially given that Obama already beat Palin when she was on the ticket in NC, FL, OH and NH. That map represents the best Obama can hope for if things don't get better and the GOP nominates Romney.

As for the OP, frankly, none of them look right to me.

Map 1: Obama can't win NC if he has lost VA.

Map 2: If Mitt Romney wins CO, he would also win NV.

Map 3: If Mitt Romney wins MI, he should definitely have won WI too.

Map 4: I don't think Mitt Romney will win IA, especially not before winning WI.

So you think Nevada will go before CO? I personally think CO goes GOP about 3-4 pts nationally before Nevada goes leaving WI and Iowa to go before Nevada does.

Your thoughts?

[President von Cat]

Not if Romney is the nominee. Wouldn't a high unemployment rate + Mormon candidate + union dissatisfaction/disappointment would make Nevada much more likely to flip than CO?  Nevada looks stronger against Democrats because the tea party wave failed to wipe out Harry Reid. But Romney is the perfect candidate if you want to win the state.

Romney's hard line on immigration could be a deal breaker with Hispanics, but Sandoval would of course endorse him and help him out.

[Wonkish1]

Not if Romney is the nominee. Wouldn't a high unemployment rate + Mormon candidate + union dissatisfaction/disappointment would make Nevada much more likely to flip than CO?  Nevada looks stronger against Democrats because the tea party wave failed to wipe out Harry Reid. But Romney is the perfect candidate if you want to win the state.

Romney's hard line on immigration could be a deal breaker with Hispanics, but Sandoval would of course endorse him and help him out.

Interesting! I would guess that Mormon voters overwhelmingly vote Republican as is though, right?

[Averroës Nix]

Not if Romney is the nominee. Wouldn't a high unemployment rate + Mormon candidate + union dissatisfaction/disappointment would make Nevada much more likely to flip than CO?  Nevada looks stronger against Democrats because the tea party wave failed to wipe out Harry Reid. But Romney is the perfect candidate if you want to win the state.

Romney's hard line on immigration could be a deal breaker with Hispanics, but Sandoval would of course endorse him and help him out.

Interesting! I would guess that Mormon voters overwhelmingly vote Republican as is though, right?

25% of Republican primary voters are Mormon, but they're only about 10% of Nevada's voting population. I haven't seen any exit polling data, but I would guess that Mormon turnout is typically relatively high, and overwhelmingly Republican.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Map 1 minus North Carolina

Sure North Carolina has been trending Democratic, but it is still a conservative leaning state.

[Peeperkorn]

Map 1 minus North Carolina

Sure North Carolina has been trending Democratic, but it is still a conservative leaning state.

What about sending teachers to improve literacy rates?

[TJ in Oregon]

Map 1 minus North Carolina

Sure North Carolina has been trending Democratic, but it is still a conservative leaning state.

What about sending teachers to improve literacy rates?

It'll help you if the teachers are Democrats