911 never happened

[2952-0-0]

My shot:

late 2001: the economy continues to shrivel as corps announce cuts, and Pres Bush's approval rate plummets to 45%

early 2002: see above, Dems talk of landslide in midterms

mid 2002: Bush talks of war in Iraq bc of WMDs, makes up evidence and points at his daddy, approval rate climbs up to 55-60%

Sept 02: Americans are finally supporting a war, but less so bc there's no Al Qaida to blame

midterms: Rs gain control of Senate, get 225-230 in House

Dec: UN tries to intervene, and fails, and in February Bush declares war.

March: Iraq falls swiftly, Bush's approval rate goes to 60-65%

April-Dec: Just in time, jobs are created back in the US, but Iraq continues to spiral into chaos. Approval rate falls to 55%. Also doubts grow about Bush's credibility.

Iowa caucuses: Dems are united in fighting Bush, and Kerry narrowly wins Iowa over Clark and Dean.

At the same time: Bush talks about going into Afghanistan because it's a terrorist haven

Dem primaries: The campaign is ferocious. Dean wins NH and goes "YYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!", killing himself. Everything is competitive since Bush starts to grow like Daddy. Not even Super Tuesday yields a winner, as Edwards wins GA, OH, and MO and Dean takes VT and narrowly loses NY to Kerry. The post-ST primaries point to Edwards, as he wins TX and FL and Dean drops out.

Meanwhile: Bush mobilizes against Afghanistan, Taliban falls, and approval rate goes from 40% to 55%.

What next?

[Sam Spade]

Your whole hypothesis is wrong because you fail to take into account that in his 2000 campaign and in his dealings in government before 9/11, Bush specifically ran against the type of "nation-building" that Clinton had promoted in the Bosnia-Kosovo area and that Bush is promoting presently.

Clinton (as well as every other senator) had already labeled Iraq a threat in 1998 with dangerous WMD's and had come very close to launching war on them himself (with the support of Congress) after Iraq threw out the UN inspectors in 1998.  In the end, he just lobbed a few missiles their way.

If 9/11 would never have happened, the US would still be ignorant of the terrorist threat, even though they (the terrorists) probably would have been much stronger and would have caused many more attacks than they are presently doing.

The economy would have been a greater factor and my bet is that Bush would have lost the next election by a close margin.  Also the inspectors would still be in Iraq (or Saddam might have kicked them out again) and they still would have found nothing.  We would be assuming at this moment that Saddam had stockpiles of WMDs also.

[opebo]

Bush's electoral success has been based upon many things - hatred of gays, religiosity, and 9/11.  Obviously his warmongering has helped him, but I think only because of 9/11.  Had he attacked Iraq without 9/11, I doubt it would have been very popular. 

[Ben.]

Bush gets some important legislation through thanks to the support of moderate democrats however his administration is still seen as somewhat lacklusta in terms of achievements and yet radical in its plans to slash tax.

The midterm look bleak for Bush at first, polls show the Democrats set to hold the senate with an increased majority and even make inroads in the House. However Bush hits the campaign trail for the GOP in a way that no president has before, stumping for candidates in tight races, even venturing into contests where the GOP are the challengers and campaigning hard across the county. Despite his best efforts the GOP sees the Democrats win contests in NH and AR however the GOP manage to stage a surprise win by defeat Max Cleland in Georgia. In the House the GOP majority hold fairly steady much to the frustration of Dick Gephardt.

Despite the modest gains, rumours soon circulate that Tom Daschle is preparing to run for the Democratic nomination while others rumoured to be preparing to run include Roy Barnes, John Edwards, John Kerry and Howard Dean.

By late early 2003 Daschle, Edwards, Barnes, Dean and Kerry are all campaigning while Al Gore is yet to make up his mind and Lieberman and others remain on the side lines.

In January 2003 American Journalist are kidnapped in Northern Pakistan by Islamic Militants based in Afghanistan and executed a few days latter. Bush demands the militants be handed over by the Taliban Government in Kabul and steps up US aid to the Northern Alliance forces opposing the Taliban. The Taliban refuse despite calls from both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia for them to comply with US demands and in response the US in alliance with the UK begin to bomb Afghanistan with a few weeks the Northern Alliance launch an offensive and drive the Taliban first from Kabul and then Kandahar. The republicans in congress are initially sceptical about deploying troops in Afghanistan to keep the peace but together with a small UN forces made up of predominately of troops from Islamic nations they approve Bush’s modest proposals.

In May 2003 Gore announces he will not run, having left his decision so late, Lieberman feels unable to run especially after approaches to potential backers reveal them lukewarm at best. Jo Biden toys with the idea of a run but in the end decides against it. Gephardt ends speculation by announcing he will run for the Senate against Kit Bond. 

Despite the Democrats best efforts the primary race proves fairly unexciting, Bush approval ratings are lukewarm but most voters give him the benefit of the doubt despite the dispiriting state of the economy and a rise in unemployment. Howard Dean attempts to steer to the left to gain some traction and his inventive use of the internet allows him to gain a glut of small contributions and a loyal base of supporters but he remains a marginal force with the Democratic field when compared with the frontrunners Daschle and Edwards. Initially fated as the front runner John Kerry fails to ignite any excitement and while still collecting large campaign contributions remains static in the majority of polls. Roy Barnes campaign is a mix of Al Gore southern populism and hard edged DLC centrism however he continually falls short of the both Daschle and Edwards.

In the Iowa primary Edwards wins by a narrow margin over Dashcle with Dean a surprisingly close third and Barnes (who did not contest the caucus) a distant fifth behind Kerry. A short time latter in New Hampshire the nation is stunned when both Daschle and Edwards fall short with Howard Dean pulling off a surprise win in the key primary. The field now narrows with Kerry quitting after a poor 19% showing in NH. On Super Tuesday Roy Barnes’ working of the southern states pays off with wins in Oklahoma, North Dakota and a near miss in Edward’s native South Carolina, Daschle mean while pulls off a close win in Missouri and a small landslide in Delaware while Dean wins Arizona and Edwards New Mexico.

The Michigan, Maine and Washington contests, see Dean winning handily in Washington while Edwards pulls off wins in Michigan and Maine despite a late challenge from Dean. In the southern primaries in Tennessee and Virginia Barnes once again confounds received wisdom winning both primaries with an endorsement from Mark Warner in VA, however Daschle is able to squeeze Edwards out of second place in Tennessee thanks in some part to the backing of Rep.Harold Ford other leading Tennessee Democrats. Cruch time for the Daschle campaign comes in the  Wisconsin primary however Edwards win sees Daschle exit the race leaving Barnes and Dean to contest the nomination with Edwards. Super Tuesday however soon crushes both Governor’s dreams with Dean winning his native Vermont as well as Massachusetts while Barnes wins his native Georgia and Maryland leaving Edwards to swing all the larger prizes of the night. With these losses both Barnes and Dean exit the race endorsing Edwards and pledging their support.

[YRABNNRM]

Bush gets some important legislation through thanks to the support of moderate democrats however his administration is still seen as somewhat lacklusta in terms of achievements and yet radical in its plans to slash tax.

The midterm look bleak for Bush at first, polls show the Democrats set to hold the senate with an increased majority and even make inroads in the House. However Bush hits the campaign trail for the GOP in a way that no president has before, stumping for candidates in tight races, even venturing into contests where the GOP are the challengers and campaigning hard across the county. Despite his best efforts the GOP sees the Democrats win contests in NH and AR however the GOP manage to stage a surprise win by defeat Max Cleland in Georgia. In the House the GOP majority hold fairly steady much to the frustration of Dick Gephardt.

Despite the modest gains, rumours soon circulate that Tom Daschle is preparing to run for the Democratic nomination while others rumoured to be preparing to run include Roy Barnes, John Edwards, John Kerry and Howard Dean.

By late early 2003 Daschle, Edwards, Barnes, Dean and Kerry are all campaigning while Al Gore is yet to make up his mind and Lieberman and others remain on the side lines.

In January 2003 American Journalist are kidnapped in Northern Pakistan by Islamic Militants based in Afghanistan and executed a few days latter. Bush demands the militants be handed over by the Taliban Government in Kabul and steps up US aid to the Northern Alliance forces opposing the Taliban. The Taliban refuse despite calls from both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia for them to comply with US demands and in response the US in alliance with the UK begin to bomb Afghanistan with a few weeks the Northern Alliance launch an offensive and drive the Taliban first from Kabul and then Kandahar. The republicans in congress are initially sceptical about deploying troops in Afghanistan to keep the peace but together with a small UN forces made up of predominately of troops from Islamic nations they approve Bush’s modest proposals.

In May 2003 Gore announces he will not run, having left his decision so late, Lieberman feels unable to run especially after approaches to potential backers reveal them lukewarm at best. Jo Biden toys with the idea of a run but in the end decides against it. Gephardt ends speculation by announcing he will run for the Senate against Kit Bond. 

Despite the Democrats best efforts the primary race proves fairly unexciting, Bush approval ratings are lukewarm but most voters give him the benefit of the doubt despite the dispiriting state of the economy and a rise in unemployment. Howard Dean attempts to steer to the left to gain some traction and his inventive use of the internet allows him to gain a glut of small contributions and a loyal base of supporters but he remains a marginal force with the Democratic field when compared with the frontrunners Daschle and Edwards. Initially fated as the front runner John Kerry fails to ignite any excitement and while still collecting large campaign contributions remains static in the majority of polls. Roy Barnes campaign is a mix of Al Gore southern populism and hard edged DLC centrism however he continually falls short of the both Daschle and Edwards.

In the Iowa primary Edwards wins by a narrow margin over Dashcle with Dean a surprisingly close third and Barnes (who did not contest the caucus) a distant fifth behind Kerry. A short time latter in New Hampshire the nation is stunned when both Daschle and Edwards fall short with Howard Dean pulling off a surprise win in the key primary. The field now narrows with Kerry quitting after a poor 19% showing in NH. On Super Tuesday Roy Barnes’ working of the southern states pays off with wins in Oklahoma, North Dakota and a near miss in Edward’s native South Carolina, Daschle mean while pulls off a close win in Missouri and a small landslide in Delaware while Dean wins Arizona and Edwards New Mexico.

The Michigan, Maine and Washington contests, see Dean winning handily in Washington while Edwards pulls off wins in Michigan and Maine despite a late challenge from Dean. In the southern primaries in Tennessee and Virginia Barnes once again confounds received wisdom winning both primaries with an endorsement from Mark Warner in VA, however Daschle is able to squeeze Edwards out of second place in Tennessee thanks in some part to the backing of Rep.Harold Ford other leading Tennessee Democrats. Cruch time for the Daschle campaign comes in the  Wisconsin primary however Edwards win sees Daschle exit the race leaving Barnes and Dean to contest the nomination with Edwards. Super Tuesday however soon crushes both Governor’s dreams with Dean winning his native Vermont as well as Massachusetts while Barnes wins his native Georgia and Maryland leaving Edwards to swing all the larger prizes of the night. With these losses both Barnes and Dean exit the race endorsing Edwards and pledging their support.

This board needs more thought-out "what if" scenarios such as this. Not "Blah Blah Blah vs. Lesser of Two Evils". Thanks for that interesting post!

[Jake]

My shot:

late 2001: the economy continues to shrivel as corps announce cuts, and Pres Bush's approval rate plummets to 45%

early 2002: see above, Dems talk of landslide in midterms

mid 2002: Bush talks of war in Iraq bc of WMDs, makes up evidence and points at his daddy, approval rate climbs up to 55-60%

Sept 02: Americans are finally supporting a war, but less so bc there's no Al Qaida to blame

midterms: Rs gain control of Senate, get 225-230 in House

Dec: UN tries to intervene, and fails, and in February Bush declares war.

March: Iraq falls swiftly, Bush's approval rate goes to 60-65%

April-Dec: Just in time, jobs are created back in the US, but Iraq continues to spiral into chaos. Approval rate falls to 55%. Also doubts grow about Bush's credibility.

Iowa caucuses: Dems are united in fighting Bush, and Kerry narrowly wins Iowa over Clark and Dean.

At the same time: Bush talks about going into Afghanistan because it's a terrorist haven

Dem primaries: The campaign is ferocious. Dean wins NH and goes "YYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!", killing himself. Everything is competitive since Bush starts to grow like Daddy. Not even Super Tuesday yields a winner, as Edwards wins GA, OH, and MO and Dean takes VT and narrowly loses NY to Kerry. The post-ST primaries point to Edwards, as he wins TX and FL and Dean drops out.

Meanwhile: Bush mobilizes against Afghanistan, Taliban falls, and approval rate goes from 40% to 55%.

What next?

This is OTL, minus the invasion of Afghanistan.

[Ben.]

Bush gets some important legislation through thanks to the support of moderate democrats however his administration is still seen as somewhat lacklusta in terms of achievements and yet radical in its plans to slash tax.

The midterm look bleak for Bush at first, polls show the Democrats set to hold the senate with an increased majority and even make inroads in the House. However Bush hits the campaign trail for the GOP in a way that no president has before, stumping for candidates in tight races, even venturing into contests where the GOP are the challengers and campaigning hard across the county. Despite his best efforts the GOP sees the Democrats win contests in NH and AR however the GOP manage to stage a surprise win by defeat Max Cleland in Georgia. In the House the GOP majority hold fairly steady much to the frustration of Dick Gephardt.

Despite the modest gains, rumours soon circulate that Tom Daschle is preparing to run for the Democratic nomination while others rumoured to be preparing to run include Roy Barnes, John Edwards, John Kerry and Howard Dean.

By late early 2003 Daschle, Edwards, Barnes, Dean and Kerry are all campaigning while Al Gore is yet to make up his mind and Lieberman and others remain on the side lines.

In January 2003 American Journalist are kidnapped in Northern Pakistan by Islamic Militants based in Afghanistan and executed a few days latter. Bush demands the militants be handed over by the Taliban Government in Kabul and steps up US aid to the Northern Alliance forces opposing the Taliban. The Taliban refuse despite calls from both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia for them to comply with US demands and in response the US in alliance with the UK begin to bomb Afghanistan with a few weeks the Northern Alliance launch an offensive and drive the Taliban first from Kabul and then Kandahar. The republicans in congress are initially sceptical about deploying troops in Afghanistan to keep the peace but together with a small UN forces made up of predominately of troops from Islamic nations they approve Bush’s modest proposals.

In May 2003 Gore announces he will not run, having left his decision so late, Lieberman feels unable to run especially after approaches to potential backers reveal them lukewarm at best. Jo Biden toys with the idea of a run but in the end decides against it. Gephardt ends speculation by announcing he will run for the Senate against Kit Bond. 

Despite the Democrats best efforts the primary race proves fairly unexciting, Bush approval ratings are lukewarm but most voters give him the benefit of the doubt despite the dispiriting state of the economy and a rise in unemployment. Howard Dean attempts to steer to the left to gain some traction and his inventive use of the internet allows him to gain a glut of small contributions and a loyal base of supporters but he remains a marginal force with the Democratic field when compared with the frontrunners Daschle and Edwards. Initially fated as the front runner John Kerry fails to ignite any excitement and while still collecting large campaign contributions remains static in the majority of polls. Roy Barnes campaign is a mix of Al Gore southern populism and hard edged DLC centrism however he continually falls short of the both Daschle and Edwards.

In the Iowa primary Edwards wins by a narrow margin over Dashcle with Dean a surprisingly close third and Barnes (who did not contest the caucus) a distant fifth behind Kerry. A short time latter in New Hampshire the nation is stunned when both Daschle and Edwards fall short with Howard Dean pulling off a surprise win in the key primary. The field now narrows with Kerry quitting after a poor 19% showing in NH. On Super Tuesday Roy Barnes’ working of the southern states pays off with wins in Oklahoma, North Dakota and a near miss in Edward’s native South Carolina, Daschle mean while pulls off a close win in Missouri and a small landslide in Delaware while Dean wins Arizona and Edwards New Mexico.

The Michigan, Maine and Washington contests, see Dean winning handily in Washington while Edwards pulls off wins in Michigan and Maine despite a late challenge from Dean. In the southern primaries in Tennessee and Virginia Barnes once again confounds received wisdom winning both primaries with an endorsement from Mark Warner in VA, however Daschle is able to squeeze Edwards out of second place in Tennessee thanks in some part to the backing of Rep.Harold Ford other leading Tennessee Democrats. Cruch time for the Daschle campaign comes in the  Wisconsin primary however Edwards win sees Daschle exit the race leaving Barnes and Dean to contest the nomination with Edwards. Super Tuesday however soon crushes both Governor’s dreams with Dean winning his native Vermont as well as Massachusetts while Barnes wins his native Georgia and Maryland leaving Edwards to swing all the larger prizes of the night. With these losses both Barnes and Dean exit the race endorsing Edwards and pledging their support.

This board needs more thought-out "what if" scenarios such as this. Not "Blah Blah Blah vs. Lesser of Two Evils". Thanks for that interesting post!

If i could be bothered I'd go on to say that Edwards/ Barnes faces Bush/ Cheney, not sure how it would play out but a modest Bush win seems likely. On long these lines…

 

No one kid themselves Alternative History can be just as dull as real life… I kid you not

Senate somthing like this...



Daschle doesn't run because of his abortive run for the presidency, so Thune has a fairly easy ride.

Dem Pickups: AK, IL, CO, KT, OK and MO

GOP Pickups: SD, GA, NC and SC. 

[Kodratos]

Bush's electoral success has been based upon many things - hatred of gays, religiosity, and 9/11. 

Are those the reasons why you supported him for four years?

[opebo]

Bush's electoral success has been based upon many things - hatred of gays, religiosity, and 9/11. 

Are those the reasons why you supported him for four years?

I supported the GOP based on a preference for right wing economics.  However the things I mentioned above are more popular.