Could Romney win the IA caucus?

[Del Tachi]

Could vote-splitting between Perry and Bachmann lead to a Romney victory in the Hawkye state?

Vote and discuss...

[TheGlobalizer]

Can?  Yes.  Will?  No.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Highly unlikely.

He has Perry stealing a lot of his support (not enough to win, mind, but enough to hurt and possibly make New Hampshire competitive), and by the time the caucuses come around either Bachmann or Paul will be fairly strong opposition (the two share similar supporters, and it is likely one will eventually start rising from a decline in the other's popularity).

[NHI]

Sadly, no.

My prediction:

Bachmann takes Iowa with Perry in second.
Romney takes New Hampshire, with Perry coming in either second or third.
Romney takes Michigan and Nevada and from there can either win or come in second in South Carolina, then go onto Florida which if he carries he'll have the nomination.

A loss in South Carolina is okay, Florida is another story.

[Eraserhead]

It'd be tough but it is possible. Of course, if he does win it, we will be looking at a Kerry '04 situation all over again.

[specific_name]

One of the TP candidates will probably fell the other before the caucus.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClXAaGoT5eE&feature=related

[Mr. Morden]

Sadly, no.

My prediction:

Bachmann takes Iowa with Perry in second.
Romney takes New Hampshire, with Perry coming in either second or third.
Romney takes Michigan and Nevada and from there can either win or come in second in South Carolina, then go onto Florida which if he carries he'll have the nomination.

Michigan is unlikely to be that early again.  They'll go before Super Tuesday, but probably not much earlier:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128721.msg2990280#msg2990280

The order will probably be something like Iowa-->New Hampshire-->Nevada / South Carolina-->Florida / Minnesota-->Arizona, or maybe Iowa-->New Hampshire-->Nevada / South Carolina-->Florida-->Arizona-->Minnesota.

Something like that.  Georgia, North Dakota, Wyoming, and/or maybe another state will probably be in there somewhere as well.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I guess he could, but I've been betting on this state going to the Bachmann column for a while.  But I voted yes.

[King]

Romney will be lucky to finish 3rd.  He will most likely be a McCain 4th behind some ordering of Bachmann, Perry, and Paul.