2008: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

[Skill and Chance]

...At the end of President Gore's 2nd term.  Who would win and what would the map look like?

Background: Gore wins Florida by <1000 votes in the 2000 election.  9/11/2001 and the military response in Afghanistan happen as in real life, but there is no war in Iraq.  In 2002, the Democrats take the House and the Senate.  Gore is re-elected in 2004 by a substantially wider margin ( >300 EC, >51% PV).  In 2005, he pushes a cap and trade bill through congress.  There is a modest backlash and the GOP gains a narrow majority in both houses of congress in 2006.  The economic events of late 2008 happen as in real life.  Gore and the GOP congress pass a TARP bill. 

[MAINEiac4434]

If the same economic events happened in 2008 under a Democratic President, McCain would win. Plus, 16 years of Democratic rule of the Executive branch would likely lead Americans to vote for a new face...even though McCain would be the oldest president-elect ever.

The youth would still vote heavily for Obama.

[Vote UKIP!]

I agree, McCain would probably win after a miniature Democrat dynasty. However, don't count out Obama's historocity (spellcheck): no doubt the prospect of a black president might reinvigorate an already tired Democratic base.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Without the US active in the Iraq War and the apparent success of the surge strategy there advocated by McCain, and with him having voted for a cap and trade bill (which he would have in 2005), being nominated by the GOP would be much less likely.

[NHI]

Though McCain would be the favorite, Obama pulls out a narrow win.

D: 270
R: 268

[tmthforu94]

I agree with Shua that I doubt McCain would be nominated in this scenario, but if he had been, I can't see Obama winning due to the economic collapse and 16 straight years of Democratic rule. I also don't think McCain would pick Sarah Palin because he wouldn't be in a desperate situation like he was in real life, but assuming he still picked her...

[Person Man]

Maybe McCain would offer a "Third Way" for Republicans and a safe way back into the White House with Palin appeasing the base. Then again, it would seem a lot like Bush/Quayle all over again.

 
McCain still probably wins by 350 or so EVs.

2002- Jim Jeffords doesn't leave the GOP caucus but Wayne Allard loses and Max Cleland wins. Mondale is welcomed back to the senate and Carnahan wins in MO.   
Senate- 53 D 47 R 
House- 220 D 218 R

2004-

Senate- There's no big GOP wave in the South and Johnson hangs on. Salazar wins dispite the uphill struggle for him in Colorado.
Senate- 54 D 46 R
House- 228 D 207 R
2004-

It came down to Pennsylvania.....

Al Gore/Joe Lieberman 286 EVs/ 51.1%
George Allen/Bill Owens 252 EVs/ 47.8%

2006- Rs win WA, FL, NJ, MN and MI 

Senate- 51 R 49 D
House- D 213 R 222

2008-

John McCain/ Sarah Palin 351 EVs 52.4%
Barack Obama/ Joe Biden 187 EVs 46.3%

McCain defeats Obama; due to the entire "race" thing, McCain has even more trouble governing than Obama does and 2010 goes the exact opposite way.

Senate- 55 R 45 D
House-  R 245 D 190

2010-  52 D 48R , 241 D 194 R