I doubt it can be staved off that long. The more interesting scenario is what if the defaults happen this winter-spring? The economy is still in the sh**tter by November, but it appears to be getting a little better. The republicans of course nominate a crazy, but Americans Elect somehow found themselves with a credible candidate. Then what?
I agree that this is the time scale that makes the election interesting. Historically it's the state of the economy in the winter-spring that sticks in the voter's mind in Nov.
1992 is an excellent example. The recession occurred from Summer 1990 through March 1991. The rest of 1991 had sluggish growth in the 1-2% range. Even though all four quarters of 1992 had real gdp growth in excess of 4%, the slow pace in 1991 stuck with the voters, capitalized by the Clinton's trademark "It's the economy stupid!" Though not the only reason for GHWB's loss, polls showed the economy was a factor, but it must have been a factor from the past since the economy had been strong throughout 1992.
Growth in 2011 has been remarkably like that in 1991. The real gdp growth in the first three quarters ranged from 0.35% to 1.99% according to the
BEA. A similar fourth quarter sets the stage for a similar view of the economy by the electorate through the coming year.
