NH-WMUR/UNH Poll: Only Romney ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

47% Romney
43% Obama

47% Obama
41% Bachmann

47% Obama
38% Pawlenty

These findings are based on the latest WMUR Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.  Seven hundred seventy-three (773) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed by telephone between June 21 and July 1, 2011.

The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.5%.  Included in the sample were 357 likely 2012 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 5.2%) and 263 likely 2012 Democratic Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.0%).

http://www.wmur.com/new-hampshire-primary-extended-coverage/28452166/detail.html

[redcommander]

I'm surprised Bachmann does so well.

[tmthforu94]

Bachmann is starting to perform better in the polls, and I don't think it's just a fluke.

I still don't understand why Pawlenty is being polled. There are quite a few others who have a better shot at winning the nomination.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Maybe Romney does have a real shot at winning NH in a general. And I'm still horrified to see Bachmann catching on. She may have a real shot at winning the nomination if she doesn't fizzle out.

[Ben Romney]

Mitt will win in NH!!!!!

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Pawlenty

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Johnson -- New Mexico

PPP polled New Hampshire this weekend, so this set is transitory. Palin was not shown.

[NHI]

Romney will carry NH. As for Pawlenty I wish the media would stop taking him so seriously. He's never going to win the nomination, I personally know of no one who is supporting him.

[Tender Branson]

Even though Romney is the best Republican for NH, I wouldn't rule out an Obama win against him yet. Obama once trailed McCain by 10 points in NH and then won by 10. Bush was leading Kerry in a UNH poll by 6 and Kerry then won the state. Also, Romney already lost 3 points in the last couple of months, because in the previous UNH poll he was leading by 50-43.

[Brittain33]

Romney is a full-time resident of NH. It's where his main estate and stables are located.

[pbrower2a]

Even though Romney is the best Republican for NH, I wouldn't rule out an Obama win against him yet. Obama once trailed McCain by 10 points in NH and then won by 10. Bush was leading Kerry in a UNH poll by 6 and Kerry then won the state. Also, Romney already lost 3 points in the last couple of months, because in the previous UNH poll he was leading by 50-43.

My main map shows President Obama winning against Mitt Romney in New Hampshire because of an approval rating at 50%.  It is nearly impossible to have n approval rating of 50% for a politician to have an approval rating that high and still lose. This WMUR/UNH poll has shown a strong  R bias, as I have usually seen.

[bonncaruso]

I'm surprised Bachmann does so well.

What has not been mentioned is that Romney's margin in the WMUR poll has DROPPED 3 points since April 2011. I do think this is one state that Romney could pick up, but there are other states, like GA, where Obama has the better pick-up possibility if Romney is the nominee. I will take 16 EV over 4 EV, its ok with me.

I do not think Bachman could do this well. The newness of her name is showing on this poll, nothing more.

[redcommander]

I'm surprised Bachmann does so well.

What has not been mentioned is that Romney's margin in the WMUR poll has DROPPED 3 points since April 2011. I do think this is one state that Romney could pick up, but there are other states, like GA, where Obama has the better pick-up possibility if Romney is the nominee. I will take 16 EV over 4 EV, its ok with me.

I do not think Bachman could do this well. The newness of her name is showing on this poll, nothing more.

Well 48% of the state voted for Bush in 2004, so anything is possible.

[TheGlobalizer]

Romney will carry NH. As for Pawlenty I wish the media would stop taking him so seriously. He's never going to win the nomination, I personally know of no one who is supporting him.

I'm loath to tell the media to cover less candidates, but I do think they're overstating him at this point.  The NH debate was a complete debacle for Pawlenty, and Bachmann won the support that he should have.

[pbrower2a]

I'm surprised Bachmann does so well.

What has not been mentioned is that Romney's margin in the WMUR poll has DROPPED 3 points since April 2011. I do think this is one state that Romney could pick up, but there are other states, like GA, where Obama has the better pick-up possibility if Romney is the nominee. I will take 16 EV over 4 EV, its ok with me.

I do not think Bachman could do this well. The newness of her name is showing on this poll, nothing more.

The other state that Mitt Romney could reasonably pick up is Indiana, and I say so only out of enforced ignorance due to the lack of Indiana polls. I think that the last Nevada poll is so stale that it is now unreliable. Even IN + NH + NV is far from enough for the Republicans. I trust that the Obama campaign will flood Nevada again with campaign staff, with many even changing their legal residence to Nevada so that they can vote in Nevada as in 2008. Arizona, too?

There are advantages to being domiciled in an imaginable swing state, like getting an inordinate amount of media attention even if that attention is over trivialities instead of over one's public policy. The Republicans lose potentially a 7-EV advantage with the switch of Arizona for New Hampshire.