Ohio PPP: Obama 46-49 approvals, leads by 4 over Romney

[krazen1211]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0524513.pdf

Obama approval: 46%
Obama disapproval: 49%

Obama/Romney: 46/42
Obama/Portman: 48/38
Obama/Gingrich: 49/40
Obama/Palin: 50/40


Sample: 45D/35R/20I, 87 white/9 black



Most undecideds are Republicans and Independents; Romney leads independents 44-34. Should be competitive.

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Gingrich

Obama vs. Palin

Huckabee and Trump were not included.

[Badger]

They decided to include Portman instead of a host of second tier actual candidates?

[big bad fab]

46 isn't very high for Obama.
Romney needs someone who can campaign effectively in Ohio as his running mate.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

46 isn't very high for Obama.
Romney needs someone who can campaign effectively in Ohio as his running mate.

Dennis Kucinich?

[pbrower2a]

They decided to include Portman instead of a host of second tier actual candidates?

That's one way to establish whether the new Senator is an up-and-coming figure in American politics beginning in the definitive swing state. Maybe he doesn't have the baggage that Governor Kasich has and demonstrates that Ohioans are liberal on statewide issues but conservative on national issues.

At the least that poll disabused anyone of any idea that Rob Portman is an up-and-coming leader in the Senate, at least early. I think that most of us can predict that the right-wing politicians who won in anomalous places in 2010 are best described as "one term and out". For the Senate that means 2016, by which time they will have people in their states pulling their hair out.

[Brittain33]

Ohio is just a tough state for Obama. Chuck Todd says that unlike his victories in other states, where he won by driving up new turnout or winning over large numbers of Independents from '04, the difference in Ohio was merely a drop in Republican turnout for the Republican ticket. He's not a good candidate for this state and if there's a big state he can slough off and still win by a decent if narrow margin, it's this one.

[freepcrusher]

the difference in Ohio was merely a drop in Republican turnout for the Republican ticket.

not true at all. Bush won the state by a small margin in 2004 so all Obama had to do was win some independents and people who regretted voting for Bush and the state was his.

[DS0816]

The only state that has voted with the winner in each of the past ten presidential elections—1972 to 2008—Ohio has been giving carriage to the presidential winner within a 5-point spread from his national margin. So, I’d recommend looking for that to possibly get repeated with results in Election 2012.

[Year, State, Winner, State Margin, National Margin, Spread]

1972 Ohio: Richard Nixon: 21.56% | 23.15% [1.59]
1976 Ohio: Jimmy Carter: 0.27% | 2.06% [1.79]
1980 Ohio: Ronald Reagan: 10.60% | 9.75% [0.85]
1984 Ohio: Ronald Reagan: 18.76% | 18.22% [0.54]
1988 Ohio: George Bush: 10.85% | 7.73% [3.12]
1992 Ohio: Bill Clinton: 1.83% | 5.56% [3.73]
1996 Ohio: Bill Clinton: 6.36% | 8.52% [2.16]
2000 Ohio: George W. Bush: 3.51% | –0.52% [4.03]
2004 Ohio: George W. Bush: 2.11% | 2.46% [0.35]
2008 Ohio: Barack Obama: 4.58% | 7.26% [2.68]

[Brittain33]

the difference in Ohio was merely a drop in Republican turnout for the Republican ticket.

not true at all. Bush won the state by a small margin in 2004 so all Obama had to do was win some independents and people who regretted voting for Bush and the state was his.

I don't have access to Todd's book, and I'm doing this on my phone so even visiting this site is tough, but I believe total turnout dropped in OH from 2004 to 2008 because it was the number one contested state in '04 but one of many in '08. I think Obama got about the same number of votes Kerry got when he lost Ohio.

[krazen1211]

the difference in Ohio was merely a drop in Republican turnout for the Republican ticket.

not true at all. Bush won the state by a small margin in 2004 so all Obama had to do was win some independents and people who regretted voting for Bush and the state was his.

I don't have access to Todd's book, and I'm doing this on my phone so even visiting this site is tough, but I believe total turnout dropped in OH from 2004 to 2008 because it was the number one contested state in '04 but one of many in '08. I think Obama got about the same number of votes Kerry got when he lost Ohio.

Turnout was actually just about identical in vote count.

Obama got about 200k votes more than Kerry and Bush got about 200k more than McCain. Some of them were disaffected conservative independents who flipped; the rest was presumably disaffected conservative independents who stayed home and increased black turnout.