Primary Digest: Florida 2012

[Progressive]

Assuming the candidates are:

Mitt Romney
Michele Bachmann
Gary Johnson
Haley Barbour
Newt Gingrich
Donald Trump
Ron Paul
Herman Cain
Tim Pawlenty
Rick Santorum

Where would these candidates do well...For example, I could see Mitt Romney doing well in Orlando/Tampa suburbs...

Who would likely win?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Romney may well take South Florida, providing Trump doesnt run. Palm Beach, Broward, and maybe Dade will go to Trump. Perhaps a higher turnout for Paul (by that I mean 10-15%) in Indian River, Brevard, and other counties.

[Elyski]

It should be close between Romney and Trump, Trump should win if Romney doesn't gather more support in North Florida.

[Bull Moose Base]

Weren't there only 5 left by the time Florida voted in 08?

[Mr. Morden]

Weren't there only 5 left by the time Florida voted in 08?

Yes.  McCain, Romney, Giuliani, Huckabee, and Paul.

In fact, we were already down to 7 candidates by the time Iowa voted.  By the time the primaries get started with Iowa, there are always between 5 and 9 candidates running.  10 is kind of unheard of in the modern era.

[Bull Moose Base]

If you're running, it seems less likely to make it Florida than to drop out in 2011 or earlier in January.  Of the names listed in the first post, I'd call only Romney, Trump and Ron Paul as having at least even odds of making it to Florida.  I'd add Huntsman or Huckabee if they get in.  People like Bachmann, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Barbour would probably need some kind of score in the first couple to go on.