Chances that a third party candidate wins a state/EV in 2012?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

13%

Discuss.

[homelycooking]

Not more than 1 or 2%.

The only way that a third party candidate is going to win an electoral vote or a state is by having an intensely rabid following in one region or one state that overrides partisan allegiances. Ross Perot couldn't win a single EV with 19% of the vote across the country, remember. The only plausible candidate who could win a plurality in his or her home state without major-party status is Sarah Palin in Alaska, and I don't see why she would be running on a third party ticket.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Not more than 1 or 2%.

The only way that a third party candidate is going to win an electoral vote or a state is by having an intensely rabid following in one region or one state that overrides partisan allegiances. Ross Perot couldn't win a single EV with 19% of the vote across the country, remember. The only plausible candidate who could win a plurality in his or her home state without major-party status is Sarah Palin in Alaska, and I don't see why she would be running on a third party ticket.

She's not very well liked in Alaska either. I mean, if Howard Dean decided to run as an Independent, I could see Vermont voting for him. But I highly doubt he's going to run again.

[Yelnoc]

10%

Here's a step-by-step guide.

1. Palin runs while Huckabee and Daniels sit it out
2. Palin wins the Iowa Caucus and pulls out a victory in South Carolina, allowing her to eventually win the Republican nomination.  She still has to fight with Romney, making it a close fight to the convention.  After her nomination, there is still some bad blood between her and Romney supporters.
3. The unrest in the Middle East causes the price of oil to hit $200 a barrel.  It also causes terrorist attacks to increase.  The US takes a side in one of the wars, possibly backing the Saudis against the revolutionaries for pragmatic reasons, giving Obama a bad rep with many liberals.
4. Bloomberg sees his time has come and launches an independent bid.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Sadly, the entertaining days of faithless electors are over. They gave some people electoral votes in 1960, Reagan a vote in 1976, and the Libertarian guy a vote in 1972. Having some sort of faithless elector thing today would be entertaining.

[California8429]

Sadly, the entertaining days of faithless electors are over. They gave some people electoral votes in 1960, Reagan a vote in 1976, and the Libertarian guy a vote in 1972. Having some sort of faithless elector thing today would be entertaining.

Edwards got one in 2004...

[The Mikado]

<1%.  (Allowing the possibility of a major party candidate dying in October 2012 or something)

[Mehmentum]

Not more than 1 or 2%.  Even if Palin wins the nomination and somone like Bloomburg runs from the center (the most plausible scenario I see), their support would probably be too spread out to win a state, even if they got a significant proportion of the vote.

[California8429]

to get an accurate measure it should have gone by single digits or .5 percentage poitns and once it hit 8 or something had an 8-100% option

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Sadly, the entertaining days of faithless electors are over. They gave some people electoral votes in 1960, Reagan a vote in 1976, and the Libertarian guy a vote in 1972. Having some sort of faithless elector thing today would be entertaining.

Edwards got one in 2004...

Really? I'll have to check it out.

[ilikeverin]

Sadly, the entertaining days of faithless electors are over. They gave some people electoral votes in 1960, Reagan a vote in 1976, and the Libertarian guy a vote in 1972. Having some sort of faithless elector thing today would be entertaining.

Edwards got one in 2004...

Really? I'll have to check it out.

No, he lied.  He meant John Ewards did.

[The Mikado]

Also, the Democratic delegation of New York voted for someone named John L. Kerry in 2004.

Apparently, they didn't even bother to look up how to spell the guy's name before filling out their forms.

[pbrower2a]

It would most likely be a right-wing splinter from the Republicans in the event that the Republicans nominate someone like Sarah Palin. I'm basing my prediction on the chance that the GOP nominee is a wholly-unqualified candidate. I can imagine someone winning a state in which a majority of people can vote for neither President Obama or the  official GOP nominee.

15% chance, I'd guess. 

[All Along The Watchtower]

America is basically a two-party system, so very unlikely.

[Bull Moose Base]

In Yelnoc's scenario, even without the Mideast unrest escalating, I could see Romney winning Utah as a write-in.  He'd akwardly have to endorse Palin obviously but it wouldn't be a big leap for Utahns to interpret it as insincere.  The fact that it would be a protest that wouldn't affect the race regardless would embolden them.  It would put Huntsman in a weird squeeze too- needing to be a good party player/wanting Romney out of the equation for 2016.