Mid-decade Redistricting and VRA district questions

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If the Democrats gain the trifecta in states that either have an incumbent-protection gerrymander or have a Republican gerrymander in 2014, is there anything stopping them from doing Texas-style mid-decade redistricting gerrymanders (Possibilities include Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Colorado, Nevada, etc)?  Also after the 2012 elections, can California Democrats just replace the redistricting commission's map with a new one from the legislature?  I know it's REALLY early, but anyone have any thoughts on this?  Finally, has there been any indication of how aggressively the Democrats will push for new VRA districts in states like South Carolina, Virginia, Texas, Alabama, Florida (non-Cuban Hispanics?), etc?

[krazen1211]

Mid-decade redistricting was ruled illegal in Colorado. So that part really depends on state law. NJ, for instance, has this clause:

The establishment of Congressional districts shall be used thereafter for the election of members of the House of Representatives and shall remain unaltered through the next year ending in zero in which a federal census for this State is taken.

In California, the legislature doesn't have the power to replace the map, so they couldn't do that.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mid-decade redistricting was ruled illegal in Colorado. So that part really depends on state law. NJ, for instance, has this clause:

The establishment of Congressional districts shall be used thereafter for the election of members of the House of Representatives and shall remain unaltered through the next year ending in zero in which a federal census for this State is taken.

In California, the legislature doesn't have the power to replace the map, so they couldn't do that.

In that case, does anyone know which states allow mid-decade redistricting and which states prohibit it?   

[krazen1211]

http://www.georgetownlawjournal.org/issues/pdf/95-4/levitt&mcdonald.pdf

[nclib]

BTW, When states redistrict again mid-decade, does the population equality and racial numbers have to be compatible for what they are at that moment or what they were at the decennial census?

[Dgov]

BTW, When states redistrict again mid-decade, does the population equality and racial numbers have to be compatible for what they are at that moment or what they were at the decennial census?

Census, because they can't realistically do a new census mid-decade, and "estimating" population numbers is highly subjective to partisanship.

[jimrtex]

If the Democrats gain the trifecta in states that either have an incumbent-protection gerrymander or have a Republican gerrymander in 2014, is there anything stopping them from doing Texas-style mid-decade redistricting gerrymanders (Possibilities include Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Colorado, Nevada, etc)?  Also after the 2012 elections, can California Democrats just replace the redistricting commission's map with a new one from the legislature?  I know it's REALLY early, but anyone have any thoughts on this?  Finally, has there been any indication of how aggressively the Democrats will push for new VRA districts in states like South Carolina, Virginia, Texas, Alabama, Florida (non-Cuban Hispanics?), etc?

The Texas legislature failed to redistrict in 2001, so a federal court ordered a temporary remedial plan so that elections could be held.  They specifically told the intervening parties that they should petition the Texas legislature if they wished to have districts of the type that only a legislature is competent to craft (eg a Black-majority district in SW Houston).  The next time the legislature met, in 2003 (the legislature only meets every other year), the legislature drew a map, as is their responsibility, including a Black-majority district in SW Houston.

4 elections were held using the legislatively-drawn districts, and only one that was imposed by the federal courts.

[jimrtex]

BTW, When states redistrict again mid-decade, does the population equality and racial numbers have to be compatible for what they are at that moment or what they were at the decennial census?

Census.  In the Texas litigation, the Democrats made an argument that the new districts were in violation of one man, one vote, but that was rejected.

If unbalanced population districts were unconstitutional per se, then a State could be forced to redistrict before every election, or at least when the districts were too far out of whack.

The issue before a court would be: "Is it OK to deny equal protection through sloth or inaction?"

The only defense would be that the state does not have accurate data, and possibly that incumbent protection and stability of congressional careers is more important than the right to vote.