Bobby Lives

[bloombergforpresident]

It was early in the morning on June 5, 1968. Robert F. Kennedy, one of the frontrunners for the Democratic Nomination and brother of former President John F. Kennedy had just won the important California Primary, and with it, a new wave of momentum. After Kennedy's victory speech he went through a kitchen to get to another ballroom. As he walked through the kitchen to a press conference. Rafer Johnson. a Kennedy bodyguard saw a man that had what looked like a pistol in his hand. As he took it out of his pocket, Johnson who believed he was going to shoot the Senator tackled and disarmed the man, who was later identified to be anti-zoinist Sirhan Sirhan, was arrested and later convicted on charges to kill the Senator. After the assassination attempt, Kennedy was rushed up to a room at the hotel. He was later assigned full time Secret Service protection. After the attempt on Kennedy's life, Democrats focused on who would win the nomination. The current delegate total was as follows.

Hubert Humphrey 561
Robert F. Kennedy 393
Eugene "Gene" McCarthy 258





Humphrey, Kennedy, or McCarthy: Who will it be?

[bloombergforpresident]

Sorry, I posted this twice. This will be the official thread.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Mind as well post what I posted in the other one:

Great start!

If you don't mind, two ideas, though I don't know how you have this planned out. Either:
A) Bobby doesn't win the nomination and is elected President in 1976 or 1980
B) Bobby wins, but his Presidency is seen like Nixon's because he acts how he acted as AG, with bugging political opponents and stuff like that.

[bloombergforpresident]

Democratic Nomination and Campaign 1968

As the convention approached Humphrey had a narrow lead in the delegate count. The convention which opened on August 26 was marked by fiery speeches by many politicians including South Dakota Senator George McGovern and Jesse Jackson. On the first ballot, no candidate won the majority of the votes and therefore, nobody won the nomination.

Democratic 1st Ballot
Hubert Humphrey-994 Delegates
Robert F. Kennedy-691 Delegates
Gene McCarthy-370 Delegates
Other-12 Delegates

After the first ballot, Robert F. Kennedy makes a rousing speech in a thick New England accent.

"We have a crucial decision to make-for our party-and for our nation. We can side with the candidate that believes we should continue a war that has utterly destroyed most of our military. This is a choice between right or wrong-fair or unfair-and now is the time side withe the real peace candidate-that candidate is me"

The speech is well received and Kennedy gains momentum on the second ballot picking up over one hundred delegates.

Democratic 2nd Ballot
Hubert Humphrey-884 Delegates
Robert F. Kennedy-839 Delegates
Gene McCarthy-331 Delegates
Other-13 Delegates

After the second ballot, it is obvious that Kennedy is running away with the nomination. It gets worse when Chicago Mayor Richard Daley switches his endorsement to Robert F. Kennedy and on the third ballot he narrowly takes the nomination.

Democratic 3rd Ballot
Robert F. Kennedy-1,313 Delegates
Hubert Humphrey-601 Delegates
Gene McCarthy-148 Delegates
Other-5 Delegates

Kennedy accepting his party's nomination

Kennedy VP pick was between Ed Muskie, George McGovern, and Henry Jackson. Jackson is picked because he will help win the West and he has needed foreign policy experience.

After the convention, the polls are close between Nixon and Kennedy with Wallace in a distant third.

CBS NEWS POLL-SEPTEMBER 6, 1968
Kennedy/Jackson 40%
Nixon/Agnew 38%
Wallace/LeMay 13%

As his brother did in 1960 Kennedy challenges Nixon to a series of debates. At first Nixon turns him down, remembering what happened to him eight years ago but after being sharply criticized by Kennedy. He agrees to the debates. The first and second debate are largely uneventful with the two candidates refraining from personal attacks but in the third debate, Nixon says Kennedy is not the candidate of change, but of crazy, Kennedy responds by saying that Nixon's "silent majority" does not exist. After the debate a new poll comes out showing Kennedy with a larger lead than expected.

GALLUP POLL-OCTOBER 14, 1968
Kennedy/Jackson 45%
Nixon/Agnew 40%
Wallace/LeMay 12%

Kennedy largely abandoned the deep South in the final month of the campaign and left Wallace and Nixon to fight over those states. Kennedy focused on carving out wins in the West and Rust Belt while Nixon tried to win over the South and West while Wallace focused on the South and border states. Nixon fought back in the final days of the campaign with ads about his law and order theme implying the other two candidates were too extreme for middle america.

NBC NEWS POLL-NOVEMBER 3, 1968
Kennedy/Jackson 46%
Nixon/Agnew 45%
Wallace/LeMay 7%

Up Next-ELECTION RESULTS 1968

[feeblepizza]

I want Nixon!

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I might actually prefer RFK in a Nixon vs. RFK scenario. RFK would have been a DLC type Democrat, while Nixon, let's say he's elected and everything goes as it might have, would be a Liberal Republican, when it gets down to DLC Democrat vs. Liberal Republican, I'd prefer the DLC Democrat. This also make Kennedy, who I have heard was ardently pro-life, President during Roe vs. Wade. Nixon was pro-choice.

[bloombergforpresident]

Robert F. Kennedy/Henry Jackson 46% 288 EV
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew  42%  197 EV
George Wallace/Curtis LeMay 11% 53 EV

Kennedy built back the New Deal coalition as well as adding in new groups like the suburbs. He won many important states that turned the election in his favor. Meanwhile in the Senate, The Democrats kept on to around the same congressional seats.

House
246 Democrats(-2)
189 Republicans(-2)

Senate
James Allen(D) wins the election in Alabama
Mike Gravel(D) wins the election in Alaska
Barry Goldwater(R) wins in Arizona
J. William Fulbright(D) wins reelection in Arkansas
Alan Craston(D) wins election in California
Peter Dominick(R) wins reelection in Colorado
Abraham Ribicoff(D) wins reelection in Connecticut
Edward Gurney(R) wins the election in Florida
Herman Talmadge(D) wins reelection in Georgia
Daniel Inouye(D) wins reelection in Hawaii
Frank Church(D) will win reelection in Idaho
Everett Dirksen(R) wins reelection in Illinois
Birch Bayh(D) will win another term in Indiana
Harold Hughes(D) will win in Iowa
Bob Dole(R) will win in Kansas
Katherine Peden(R) will win in Kentucky
Russell B. Long(D) will win reelection in Louisiana
Charles Mathais(R) will win in Maryland
Thomas B. Curtis(R) will win in Missouri
Alan Bible(D) will win reelection in Nevada
Norris Cotton(R) will win reelection in New Hampshire
Jacob Javits(R) is reelected in New York
Sam Ervin(D) wins reelection in North Carolina
Milton Young(R) wins reelection in North Dakota
William Saxbe(R) wins the election in Ohio
Mike Monroney(D) wins reelection in Oklahoma
Wayne Morse(D) wins reelection in Oregon
Richard Schweiker(R) wins the election in Pennsylvania
Ernest Hollings(D) wins reelection in South Carolina
George McGovern(D) wins reelection in South Dakota
Wallace Bennent(R) wins reelection in Utah
George Aiken(R) wins reelection in Vermont
Warren Magnouson(D) wins reelection in Washington
Gaylord Nelson(D) wins reelection in Wisconsin

Senate
59 Democrats
41 Republicans

[bloombergforpresident]

Questions? Comments?

[Miles]

Pretty good!

[bloombergforpresident]

I'll have an update out this weekend.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Reagan/Laxalt '72! Maybe Agnew will make an appearance in the primaries as well.

[bloombergforpresident]

The First Term of Robert F. Kennedy

After his election, Kennedy asks and succeeds in having Congress pass the Equal Rights Amendment. It then goes to the states, a three year process. In June, Kennedy nominates Wendell Garrity, Jr. for Chief Justice. The nomination passes easily. In August, the "Kennedy Tax Cuts" are passed. They are an across the board tax cut and it is extremely popular with Americans. Kennedy approval stands at 68% in October and he is very popular. The Clean Air Act mandates different emissions and is signed by Kennedy in December. As the President enters a new year, his approval is at 63% with the effects of the popular tax cut setting in. In late January, Senator Ted Kennedy proposes the Children's Healthcare Insurance Act which would make Children's healthcare for minors free or nearly free. Most Americans support the idea and it passes 63-37 in the Senate. In March 1970, President Kennedy announces that all US troops will be out of Vietnam by early 1972. As the midterms approach, Kennedy remains popular with Americans- with a 56% approval rating in September. In October, Secretary of State Ed Muskie and other Soviet leaders meet in Brussels and lay groundwork for a nuclear reduction treaty. The midterms are indifferent to the parties with no party gaining more than a few seats in each house.

Pickups in Bold

Ted Stevens(R) wins another term in Alaska
Paul Fannin(R) wins another term in Arizona
John Tunney(D) wins in California
Lowell Weicker(R) wins a first term in Connecticut
William Roth(R) wins in Deleware
Lawton Chiles(D) wins in Florida
Cecil Heftel(D) wins in Hawaii
Aldai Stevenson III(D) wins in Illinois
Vance Hartke(D) wins reelection in Indiana
Joseph Tydings(D) will win again in Maryland
Phil Hart(D) wins reelection in Michigan
Ted Kennedy(D) wins in Massachusetts
Hubert Humphrey(D) wins in Minnesota
John Stennis(D) wins reelection in Mississippi
Stuart Symington(D) wins again in Missouri
Mike Mansfield(D) wins in Montana
Roman Hruska(R) is reelected in Nebraska
Howard Cannon(D) wins reelection in Nevada
Harrison Williams(D) win another term in New Jersey
Joseph Montoya(D) win in New Mexico
Richard Ottinger(D) wins in New York
Quentin Burdick(D) wins reelection in North Dakota
Robert Taft(R) wins his first term in Ohio
William Sesler(D) wins in Pennsylvnia
John Pastore(D) wins another term in Rhode Island
Al Gore(D) wins reelection in Tennessee
George Bush(R) wins in Texas
Frank Moss(D) wins again in Texas
Winston Prouty(R)  wins in Vermont
Harry Byrd(I) wins another term in Virginia
Julia Hansen(D) wins in Washington
Robert Byrd(D) wins again in West Virginia
William Proxmire(D) wins reelection in Wisconsin
Gale McGee(D) wins again in Wyoming


Senate
Democrats 60 (+1)
Republicans 40 (-1)

House
243 Democrats (-3)
192 Republicans (+3)

Hugh Scott, the Minority Leader is defeated and Robert Griffin of Michigan becomes Minority Leader and Jacob Javits is elected Minority Whip.

As the end of 1970 man lands on the moon. Americans are optimistic with Kennedy- he has over 60% approval. In his second State of the Union, Kennedy promises a withdrawal from Vietnam and announces a US-Soviet Summit in June. There is almost no protests and America seems to be very calm. In March, The Technology Advancement Act provides new funding for Technology and Space Travel. In May, Ronal Reagan enters the Republican fray to challenge President Kennedy. He is followed by James Rhodes and John Lindsay. In June, Kennedy and Soviet Leaders work out a treaty that would reduce US Nuclear Arms by 35%. It is opposed by war hawks for ratification. The Senate agrees to it by a vote of 68-32 because of the Democratic Majority but Republican Presidential contenders call it radical. Kennedy's poll numbers take a hit and his approval drops to 54% with 45% not approving. Reagan leads all Republicans in 1972 at that point. Going into 1972, Americans are still optimistic but uncertain about their future.


Would Kennedy win reelection?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Good update. Who's in Kennedy's cabinet?

[hcallega]

Good stuff. I think of myself as a Kexpert (Kennedy expert). This is pretty much how I would see a RFK presidency turning out. Pretty middle of the road Democrat; similar to Bubba only  more focused on poverty and more socially conservative.

[bloombergforpresident]

Republican Nomination 1972

Republican Primary Poll-January 7, 1072
Governor Ronald Reagan-CA 46%
Former Governor William Scranton-PA 20%
Mayor John Lindsay-NY 10%
Former Governor Winthrop Rockefeller-AR 10%
Governor James Rhodes-OH 7%
Harold Stassen-MN 6

Republican Primary Map
Red-Reagan
Blue-Scranton
Green-Rhodes
Grey-No primary

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Hopefully Reagan will win the Presidency, but I doubt it.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Whoa! I just noticed that Scoop Jackson is Vice-President! Awesome!

[bloombergforpresident]

1972 Campaign

Reagan after massive primary victories won the nomination easily. Reagan selected John Tower of Texas to be his running mate. The Republican platform called for repeal of many social programs especially the Children's Health Care System and a military buildup. Kennedy also won his party's nomination very easily and retained Scoop Jackson as his running mate. Kennedy had a large lead in the pools in Late September.

Gallup Presidential Poll-September 23, 1972
Kennedy/Jackson 48%
Reagan/Tower 39%

Even with low poll numbers, Reagan ran an energetic and forceful campaign. He bought TV time to do ads and made hundreds of campaign stops. Kennedy split his time campaigning and working at the White House. Reagan's campaigning paid off in the polls.

NYT Presidential Poll-October 16, 1972
Kennedy/Jackson 48%
Reagan/Tower 45%

Kennedy got a boost when on October 29, 1972 the ERA was ratified and added to the Constitution.
As the campaign drew to a close, Kennedy had a solid lead over Reagan.

NBC Poll-November 1, 1972
Kennedy/Jackson 50%
Reagan/Tower 46%

Can Reagan make a come back?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Go Reagan!

[bloombergforpresident]

Kennedy/Jackson 280 EV 52%
Reagan/Tower 250EV 47%
Other 1%

Kennedy won reelection in a narrow victory. Reagan swept the South but Kennedy did well in the Rust Belt and Pacific West. Democrats lost seats in Congress, though.

Pickups in bold
John Sparkman(D) wins reelection in Alabama
Ted Stevens(R) win another term in Alaska
John McClellan(D) wins another term in Arkansas
Gordon Allott(R) wins reelection in Colorado
J. Caleb Boggs(R) wins yet again in Delaware
Sam Nunn(D) wins in Georgia
James McClure(R) wins in Idaho
Charles Percy(R) wins another term in Illinois
Dick Clark(D) wins a first term in Iowa
James Pearson(R) wins reelection in Kansas
Louie Nunn(R) wins in Kentucky
J. Bennet Johnson(D) wins in Louisiana
Margaret Chase Smith(R) wins another term in Maine
Edward Brooke(R) wins reelection in Massachusetts
Robert Griffin(R) wins reelection in Michigan
Walter Mondale(D) wins another term in Minnesota
James Eastland(D) wins again in Mississippi
Lee Metcalf(D) wins in Montana
Carl Curtis(R) wins reelection in Nebraska
Thomas McIntyre(D) wins another term in New Hampshire
Clifford Case(D) wins another term from New Jersey
Pete Dominci(R) wins a first term in New Mexico
Jesse Helms(R) wins a first term in North Carolina
Dewey Bartlett(R) wins in Oklahoma
Mark Hatfield wins again in Oregon
John Chaffee(R) wins a first term in Rhode Island
Strom Thurmond wins again in South Carolina
James Abourezk(D) win in South Dakota
Howard Baker wins reelection in Tennessee
John Tower(R) win another term in Texas
Robert Stafford(R) wins in Vermont
William Sprong(R) wins in Virginia
Jennings Randolph(D) wins in West Virginia
Clifford Hansen(R) wins in Wyoming

Democrats 57 (-3)
Republicans 43 (+3)

House
Democrat 230
Republican 205

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Reagan loses California?