Texas

[nclib]

Bush won the Hispanic vote in Texas with 56%.

Of course blacks and whites were solidly for Kerry/Bush respectively.

Kerry won many Hispanic-majority counties in SW Texas.

Since these counties have very low black populations, what is the reason for Kerry winning them...are the exit polls inaccurate or do Hispanics on the border vote differently than Hispanics in the rest of Texas?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I am very wary of those exit polls.

In the 1998 governor's race (go look at the results here and compare that to 2004) Bush still only got 49% of the Hispanic vote.

[The Dowager Mod]

A lot of hispaics in the border counties were pissed about the DeLay redistricting.
so they voted democrat.

[Sam Spade]

I am very wary of the exit polls too.

Thouhg I do believe that Bush got around 56% of the Hispanic vote in Florida, I don't believe he got 59% of the Hispanic vote in Texas.

Based on 1998 results, I would say 45-47% of the Hispanic vote is much more realistic.

[jimrtex]

Bush won the Hispanic vote in Texas with 56%.

Of course blacks and whites were solidly for Kerry/Bush respectively.

Kerry won many Hispanic-majority counties in SW Texas.

Since these counties have very low black populations, what is the reason for Kerry winning them...are the exit polls inaccurate or do Hispanics on the border vote differently than Hispanics in the rest of Texas?

Take a look at Webb County, where Bush received 43% of the vote.  It is 95% Hispanic, which means that Bush must have received pretty close to 43% of the Hispanic vote in the county.  There were similar results in Maverick and Hidalgo counties, and Bush carried Cameron county.

If there is a difference between areas along the border and elsewhere, it might not be that great.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

43% is a far cry from 56%.

In Starr county, over 97% Hispanic, Bush only got 26.1% of the vote. And he barely carried Dallas count, which he got 64.65% in in 1998.

[jimrtex]

43% is a far cry from 56%.

Not really.

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Starr County is a rural county with a small population.  You can see the same pattern in Duval, Zavala, and Presidio counties.

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Have you reported this error in the Atlas to Dave?

[minionofmidas]

43 or 56 is enough of a difference to just can that exit poll...but there does seem to be some regional difference. Take a look at San Antonio, Corpus Christi, Hispanic areas in Houston, Dallas, the Panhandle...either Bush is polling at, maybe not 56%, but at least 50% of the Hispanic vote here, or Hispanic turnout (and, no doubt, citizenship rates) must be very low indeed.
Cameron county's got a Navy presence and some Republican traditions.