A little theory of mine regarding John Thune

[tpfkaw]

Either he, his staff, or an admirer keeps buying his shares on InTrade, to make him look like a more viable candidate than he actually is.

[Bull Moose Base]

Maybe.  I don't know how much intrade rankings influence the narrative as opposed to say polls.  Maybe donors check it?  Thune strikes me as a bit more likely to drop out before Iowa than he is to win the nomination.

[dmmidmi]

Maybe.  I don't know how much intrade rankings influence the narrative as opposed to say polls. 

I think it's really the other way around. If you notice, every time Nate Silver said something about a particular Senate race, or a big story came out, the rankings fluctuated. To me, Intrade doesn't drive the narrative, but is a reflection of the overall narrative.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

All the InTrade numbers now reflect is who idiots with disposable income are fans of.