IL: Rasmussen: Kirk (R) leads by 4

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Illinois Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-10-26

Summary: D: 42%, R: 46%, I: 5%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Associate Justice PiT]

     46% is the best Kirk's done in any poll in a long time.

[Eraserhead]

I'm thinking it still comes down to whether that Green vote holds up or not. Also, why doesn't Rasmussen include the Libertarian in his polls? That would likely hurt Kirk.

[Badger]

And it (the Green vote) won't. That and the "undecided" vote in most polls is disproportionately African-American/Cook County in most polls is the reason Alexi G still has a real shot. Add Obama campaigning in Sweet Home Chicago just before the election.....

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I really, really hope Kirk pulls this one out.

[Tender Branson]

Now we just need a poll from WA and DE, no poll there for 2 weeks now ...

[Guderian]

And it (the Green vote) won't. That and the "undecided" vote in most polls is disproportionately African-American/Cook County in most polls is the reason Alexi G still has a real shot. Add Obama campaigning in Sweet Home Chicago just before the election.....

African-Americans (especially those living in Chicago) are known for staying undecided for a long-ass time and breaking for one side after long and careful consideration. Give me a break, they would vote for Charles Manson if he won Democratic primary, and they are voting for the G-man. I would guess most of the undecided vote is among white Cook County suburbanites and Latinos.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama is giving one last speech, here in Chicago on the weekend to motivate voters, I think this will stay in the Democratic column.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Now we just need a poll from WA and DE, no poll there for 2 weeks now ...

We don't need polling from Delaware, thanks. Losing candidate is losing.

[RRusso1982]

Obama is giving one last speech, here in Chicago on the weekend to motivate voters, I think this will stay in the Democratic column.


Yes, this will save Giannoulias.  Just like it saved Jon Corzine and Martha Coakley.

[DrScholl]

The difference here is, this is Chicago, it's exactly where Obama's influence is at it's very best and he can get some Democrats out to the polls.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

And it (the Green vote) won't. That and the "undecided" vote in most polls is disproportionately African-American/Cook County in most polls is the reason Alexi G still has a real shot. Add Obama campaigning in Sweet Home Chicago just before the election.....

African-Americans (especially those living in Chicago) are known for staying undecided for a long-ass time and breaking for one side after long and careful consideration. Give me a break, they would vote for Charles Manson if he won Democratic primary, and they are voting for the G-man. I would guess most of the undecided vote is among white Cook County suburbanites and Latinos.

Obviously they will vote for Alexi, but they are saying they are undecided now(in polls) is what he's saying.

Alexi's going to need a big turnout in Chicago to win this one.

[Miles]

The military ballots aren't being counted. That will help to offset Kirk's lead in the polls.

[muon2]

I'm thinking it still comes down to whether that Green vote holds up or not. Also, why doesn't Rasmussen include the Libertarian in his polls? That would likely hurt Kirk.

Ras included "Some Other Candidate" which got 5%. Labno was the only candidate not listed, so I would attribute most of those responses as support for him.