Did Illinois voters get cold feet?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I have a theory this is why Quinn survived. Voters got too scared to elect Brady. They entered the voting booth and though "Damn I hate Quinn but do I really want to elect this far right nutjob just to prove a point about that? Oh f**k it I'll just vote for Quinn."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems reelected a democratic state legislature and Kirk is a moderate republican. That's why we did better at the state level. And Simon is a brand name that carries more weight in downstate than Giannoulias.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Makes sense. That probably also partly explain Nevada Senate.

[muon2]

Let's look at some of the county percentages for Brady compared to Kirk. Here's the first four:

Adams (west): Brady 74%, Kirk 74%
Alexander (south): Brady 45%, Kirk 44%
Bond (exurban StL): Brady 61%, Kirk 61%
Boone (north): Brady 61%, Kirk 61%

There's no sign of cold feet there. In every case Brady gets slightly more votes than Kirk, but that's to be expected since Brady's from Downstate. Simon didn't have much of an effect on the ticket - in fact in her home county Quinn got fewer votes (6,421) than Giannoulias  (6,486)

How about the Chicago and suburbs:

Cook: Brady 29%, Kirk 32%
DuPage: Brady 54%, Kirk 58%
Kane: Brady 54%, Kirk 57%
Kendall: Brady 55%, Kirk 58%
Lake: Brady 50%, Kirk 57% (Kirk's CD is here)
McHenry: Brady 57%, Kirk 60%
Will: Brady 51%, Kirk 53%

There is a consistent 3% of Chicagoland voters who voted for Kirk but not Brady. Since that makes up 2/3 of the state's population that accounts for the 2% overall difference. Negative advertising hammered on Brady's social positions, and it looks like for about 3% of the Chicagoland voting population that was enough. That 3% didn't go to Quinn, he got 64% in Cook just like Giannoulias. That 3% still couldn't support a Dem this cycle, so they voted for a third party candidate, just like the anti-Blago vote in 2006 that went to the Green Party.

I would also note that Cook had a higher than expected turnout due to a strong Dem GOTV. Most of that was designed to push state legislative candidates that had been polling behind to the win, and it worked. I think that it also carried Quinn, boosting his percentage just enough compared to the pre-election polls.

I don't think it was cold feet, it was a combination of organizing and advertising.

[Eraserhead]

Great analysis!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Rutherford and Topeka also won there statewide races. So most likely. McKenna or Dillard would have won the Governorship.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Rutherford and Topeka also won there statewide races. So most likely. McKenna or Dillard would have won the Governorship. ^cost Kirk the Senate seat.

[Franzl]

I think Mr. Moderate is maybe right. Look at Kirk's margins downstate. I sincerely doubt they would have happened if Brady hadn't been the nominee.

Although I think cold feet had something to do with Quinn winning as well. I voted for Rutherford, Topinka.....and yes, Mark Kirk. But no way in hell are you going to get me to vote for Bill Brady.

[??????????]

How long will it be until Quinn is convicted of something? LOL

[Franzl]

How long will it be until Quinn is convicted of something? LOL

Evidence? Yeah, didn't think so.

[??????????]

How long will it be until Quinn is convicted of something? LOL

Evidence? Yeah, didn't think so.

It was a joke moron, bye bye, enjoy ignore.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Remember how that person in your sig was going to win?

[??????????]

Remember how that person in your sig was going to win?

+60

[Franzl]

How long will it be until Quinn is convicted of something? LOL

Evidence? Yeah, didn't think so.

It was a joke moron, bye bye, enjoy ignore.

Oh you can't imagine how troubled I am by that prospect. Idiot.

[DrScholl]

Quinn survived by Democrats who weren't thrilled with their choice, but were absolutely put off by Brady's ideology. Quinn essentially pulled off a victory and only won three counties, so it's clear that some people decided at the last minute to hold their nose and vote Quinn.

[Lunar]

Bill Brady was too conservative for Illinois, but he was not a typical tea party disaster that became deeply unpopular in the state like Miller, Angle, O'Donnell etc.

[Sam Spade]

I made an observation a couple of weeks ago...

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The polling was, of course, a mile off.  But you have to realize who controls Illinois for both the Republicans and Democrats.  It's why everyone goes to jail there.

The actual results indicate that what happened is that all the Dem leaners or third-party players came back to both Giannoulias and Quinn.  They run very similarly everywhere and exactly the same (more importantly) in the Chicago suburbs.  The difference was that enough of the people who voted for Kirk were siphoned off to third parties in the Brady race.

Maybe they were scared.  Or maybe that was the intention all along.

[nkpatel1279]

Pat Quinn is the IL version of Gray Davis(CA) and Harry Reid(NV)- He is personally unpopular. He has a dull personality. He is a type of of candidate that should lose in this type of year. But he won against a Republican opponent who is way out of touch with the voters in IL. 
Quinn also is the anti Blagojevich- He is a straightshooter and has a blue collar working class persona.
On the US Senate Side- Mark Kirk is the ideal Republican candidate for Statewide office- A political moderate from a Democratic leaning swing district. The Democratic Nominee-Alexi Giannoulias- is a lightweight- Young inexperienced-alleged ties to corruption(Rezko,Broadway Bank).  Giannoulias won a low level statewide office in IL against a generic GOP challenger in 2006-a Democratic year. Giannoulias-D was better of running for re-election as State Treasurer. Then run for higher office ie Governor or US Senator in 2014,2016,or 2018.
A more older and experienced Democratic like Dan Hynes or Lisa Madigan would have kept IL in the DEM collumn.