Sarah Palin for the win

[DS0816]

… for winning the nomination.

If Sarah Palin wins the 2012 Republican nomination for president of the United States, which primaries and caucuses would make it possible?

(Would she win both Iowa and New Hampshire? Have the nomination wrapped pretty quickly? South Carolina, the biggest bellwether for GOP presidential primaries, is obviously a part of it.)

[TomC]

Palin's not clinching the nomination early on; Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Texas would be critical to her campaign as well.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Unless tea-party-mania swells to even greater heights by then, it's pretty difficult to see Palin winning New Hampshire.

[Beet]

Being able to steamroller her opponents in money and enthusiasm (and therefore organization) are Palin's strengths. When her opponents see this, there is a chance that they do a Warner / Bayh and end their humiliation before the exploratory committee stage or very early in it. If they all do this, she could have the nomination clinched up by six months from now. I see this as about 40 percent chance.

Or, there is a chance that ambition propels one of the men to continue to mount a campaign against her, competing with her for the tea party / conservative label (None of the candidates will find explicitly identifying as an establishment or mainline Republican rewarding - you can take that to the bank). If that happens, it may be an opportunity to tease out some of the nuances of Palin's positions, and the campaign could run all the way through next year and until Iowa (by which time the inevitable outcome of Iowa will be widely known, leaving the actual caucusing to a mere formality / pep rally). I see this as about 40 percent chance.

Very likely it's in between #1 and #2.

It looks like you all are predicting something more akin to 2008 where it drags on beyond the first few states. Anything is possible. This is about 20 percent chance. Her actually losing the nomination is < 20 percent chance.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

PLEASE, DO NOT USE RED FOR THE REPUBLICANS AND BLUE FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

THANK YOU.

And regarding the actual question, I'd say Iowa and South Carolina.

[Fritz]

Oh Please, Republican Grand Old Party,  please make us all very happy, by nominating Sarah Palin.  She alone can guarantee Obama a 400+ EV win.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Palin has absolutely no chance. We all know this, come on now.

[tmthforu94]

I think she'd have to win South Carolina and Iowa to have a good shot. That being said, I can't see her making it through a gruesome, 6 month campaign and then win a primary. She'll be toast by October, let alone caucus day.

[Yelnoc]

What Tmthforu94 said.  There is no way our Gaffe Princess will make it through that long on the campaign trail, especially when she is at center stage media-wise.  Especially when considering she will very likely not be the only right-wing Republican running.

[Poundingtherock]

On what basis?  It's even more likely that Mitch Daniels, Mitt romney, and tim pawlenty will split the moderate vote, allowing her to win the conservative vote and take the nomination.

How will the conservative vote be split?  Huckabee and Gingrich are unlikely to run while Pawlenty and Daniels are likely to run.

How does Obama get to 400+ electoral votes if he's leading Palin by 6 and under 50%?

[Bull Moose Base]

Palin wouldn't even have to announce a run for another year.

[pbrower2a]

On what basis?  It's even more likely that Mitch Daniels, Mitt romney, and tim pawlenty will split the moderate vote, allowing her to win the conservative vote and take the nomination.

How will the conservative vote be split?  Huckabee and Gingrich are unlikely to run while Pawlenty and Daniels are likely to run.

How does Obama get to 400+ electoral votes if he's leading Palin by 6 and under 50%?

Many people don't bother voting or else waste their votes on third-party or independent candidates.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin wouldn't even have to announce a run for another year.

Possible.  The first fiiling deadlines for early primaries will probably be in late October (contingent on possible changes in primary dates), so that's probably the absolute latest anyone could enter the race.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

She has an incredibly small chance to win, and it hinges on a lack of conservative or libertarian opposition while the moderate field is extremely crowded. That means no Huckabee, no Johnson, no Paul, no serious conservative or libertarian opposition, and as many "moderates" as possible (Romney, Pawlenty, POSSIBLY Gingrich, etc).

Under these circumstances, she could do decently riding on the conservative votes alone in the more moderate "early bird" states, and then ride the wave in the South (without Huckabee) and certain parts of the Midwest (without Paul or Johnson) in addition to Alaska to pull off a narrow victory (Sorry, don't know how to make a map, but I could probably show you about how it would look if I could).

It would still be incredibly close, but with some luck Palin might just pull it off.

If Huckabee ran, she would lose the Evangelicals and Soc. Cons, not to mention the southern Conservatives. Huckabee not running would be absolutely instrumental in Palin pulling off a win, but it is quite possible (Huckabee seems to not be preparing for a run, since his support outside of the South is pretty limited).

If Ron Paul ran, she would lose the lukewarm supporters of hers that are Libertarians and Fis. Cons, meaning a chunk of her Tea Party base. Assuming he pulled off what he pulled off last year or what the polls are currently going for, he would at the very least spoil her chances of winning. Assuming he jumped in popularity the way he did when the Ron Paul Internet Machine began rolling in the beginning of his campaign, she would lose quite soundly.

The problem with Palin is that she mostly appeals to the Soc. Cons, which is a bit of a fickle base and alienates several other groups of potential supporters. When her non Soc. Con supporters look at her, they see other candidates with far clearer views on what they want. Any liberals she has can be picked up by moderates like Romney. The Neo Cons have far more reliable candidates to choose from. The Fiscal Cons look at her, see something they kind of like, and then pursue that to its logical conclusions and find Ron Paul at the end of the trail.

[Bull Moose Base]

Huckabee not running would be absolutely instrumental in Palin pulling off a win, but it is quite possible (Huckabee seems to not be preparing for a run, since his support outside of the South is pretty limited).

I think people exaggerate the chances of Huckabee skipping the race a bit.  They're probably less than 50-50 but I doubt he's ruled it out and like Palin, he could afford to take his time deciding.  And it could well be that if either one announces a decision not to run, the other one will shift to being much more likely to jump in.

If Ron Paul ran, she would lose the lukewarm supporters of hers that are Libertarians and Fis. Cons, meaning a chunk of her Tea Party base. Assuming he pulled off what he pulled off last year or what the polls are currently going for, he would at the very least spoil her chances of winning. Assuming he jumped in popularity the way he did when the Ron Paul Internet Machine began rolling in the beginning of his campaign, she would lose quite soundly.

Paul, like Huckabee, is showing no signs of preparing a run.  Johnson seems more likely but I suspect would be a harder sell to anyone but true libertarians and would consequently, hurt Palin less.

If she jumped in the race a year from now, she shortens her primary window to slip up, immediately dominates the press's conversation just as people start paying attention, and it's not all that hard to see her winning Iowa, which would give her momentum as it did Obama, squeeze out rivals/go a long ways toward narrowing it down to a Palin vs. Romney race, which there's a decent chance she'd win.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul, like Huckabee, is showing no signs of preparing a run.  Johnson seems more likely but I suspect would be a harder sell to anyone but true libertarians and would consequently, hurt Palin less.

How much do Johnson/Paul voters overlap with people who would otherwise vote in a GOP presidential primary at all anyway?  Probably not very much.  Certainly in 2008, the other candidates ignored Paul except as an occasional foil in debates, and there was no sense that his surge up to 15-20% or more in some caucus states was having any impact on what was going on with the rest of the candidates.  It was like he was occupying a separate political universe from the others.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Paul, like Huckabee, is showing no signs of preparing a run.  Johnson seems more likely but I suspect would be a harder sell to anyone but true libertarians and would consequently, hurt Palin less.

What? Paul's been to Iowa numerous times, and he's also been to South Carolina and New Hampshire since 2008 as well IIRC. He's stated explicitly that he hasn't ruled out a 2012 run.

Paul has been quite active with his Campaign for Liberty and with the tea party movement, and he regularly appears in the media now.

Did you miss this thread?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Paul, like Huckabee, is showing no signs of preparing a run.  Johnson seems more likely but I suspect would be a harder sell to anyone but true libertarians and would consequently, hurt Palin less.

How much do Johnson/Paul voters overlap with people who would otherwise vote in a GOP presidential primary at all anyway?  Probably not very much.  Certainly in 2008, the other candidates ignored Paul except as an occasional foil in debates, and there was no sense that his surge up to 15-20% or more in some caucus states was having any impact on what was going on with the rest of the candidates.  It was like he was occupying a separate political universe from the others.

I know I'm not the only Ron Paul supporter who was in 2008 either a) not a registered voter) or b) not a Republican (for closed primary states), but who will be ready when it comes time for the 2012 primaries.

[opebo]

Palin has absolutely no chance. We all know this, come on now.

Seriously, you're out of touch with reality.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If the Huckster takes a run, Palin is going to lose. It really is that simple. The far-right is making massive gains thanks to the Tea Party, but it isn't quite powerful to beat all the RINOS and Centrists within the Republican Party when it gets split. If it came down to a moderate like Romney and Palin, I would say Romney would have a better chance of winning.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ron Paul has a pretty good chance of running. He has been getting more and more enthusiastic about the idea, so I would guess he probably will (No guarantees, though).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Probably because of the migration towards the Republicans. Remember, in the Bush Era, Ron Paul was definitely not a representative of the Republican Party. Most of his supporters would have been with the Democrats (if they opposed the war) or third party or not voting. If anything, him running just made the Republican Party bigger to accommodate all the Libertarian sorts joining up. Also, the random people from the internet who never vote that came out to support him.

His supporters matter more now, though, because the Republican Party has taken a definite in the direction of Ron Paul. It is entirely possible that they will go for someone who is like Paul if he doesn't run, which could lead a bunch into supporting Palin. Really though, when he first ran in 2007 he was polling around 2% and by the time the elections came around he was pulling in about 10%.