Maloney's Seat? Predictions.

[Progressive]

Carolyn Maloney, incumbent Congressmember from NY's 14th District, is facing perhaps her most serious primary challenger to date, Reshma Saujani.

Saujani has been endorsed by The Daily News, The NY Observer, Russell Simmons, Bloomberg's GF, and some others.

My prediction:
Maloney 55%
Saujani  45%

Please write yours, I want to see who comes close to accurate, and who feels differently from me on this primary race.

[cinyc]

Maloney will win, unfortunately.   But she's worried enough to have run ads on NYC over-the-air TV.

[Smash255]

Maloney 68-32

[Beet]

Maloney will win, unfortunately.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Can you please just use the primary thread to talk about predictions rather than spamming the boards with individual threads for each primary that flits through your mind?

[Progressive]

Can you please just use the primary thread to talk about predictions rather than spamming the boards with individual threads for each primary that flits through your mind?

You'll live sweetheart, I promise

[Verily]

Saujani will not break 30%. She looked relevant early on, but she's failed to do any serious campaigning. The district does consist of more than the blocks between Park and 5th; Saujani has done nothing more than make social calls to the elite. She will get negligible votes outside of the Upper East Side, which has the lowest Democratic registration rate of all parts of the district to begin with.

Sort of ironic that Maloney is the candidate of Astoria and the Lower East Side. But voters in those places haven't even heard of Saujani before; they know and (mostly) like Maloney.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If this was 1946, the seat would likely go to the Republicans no matter who the Dems nominate. But of course, this is 2010, and as such I don't give a damn.

[Verily]

If this was 1946, the seat would likely go to the Republicans no matter who the Dems nominate. But of course, this is 2010, and as such I don't give a damn.

No, even in 1946 Astoria and the LES would have outvoted the UES. It would have been phenomenally polarized back then but probably Democratic.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If this was 1946, the seat would likely go to the Republicans no matter who the Dems nominate. But of course, this is 2010, and as such I don't give a damn.

No, even in 1946 Astoria and the LES would have outvoted the UES. It would have been phenomenally polarized back then but probably Democratic.

What were the leanings of Astoria and LES back then? Surely less Dem then they are now. 1946 was strong enough to produce even a one term wonder in such a district, but I am not familiar with what exactly you mean when you say "polarized" (55-45?, 60-40?, somewhere in between?)

 And UES likely wouldn't be in a district with those back then or atleast wouldn't contain as much of the upper east side. (45 seats instead of 29 across the state).

[Verily]

If this was 1946, the seat would likely go to the Republicans no matter who the Dems nominate. But of course, this is 2010, and as such I don't give a damn.

No, even in 1946 Astoria and the LES would have outvoted the UES. It would have been phenomenally polarized back then but probably Democratic.

What were the leanings of Astoria and LES back then? Surely less Dem then they are now. 1946 was strong enough to produce even a one term wonder in such a district, but I am not familiar with what exactly you mean when you say "polarized" (55-45?, 60-40?, somewhere in between?)

No idea on the exact proportions, but the LES was as intensely Democratic back then as it is now, although for different reasons. Immigrants in NYC were almost all Democrats, and there was not a neighborhood with more immigrants than the LES.

Astoria is harder to say, but I think it had a lot of immigrants then, too. Greek immigration didn't really pick up until the 1950s so I'm not sure what immigrant group dominated there in 1946. Presumably they were Democrats, though. Edit: According to Wikipedia, it was Italian before it was Greek. Maybe not so Democratic then, given that 1946 was right after WWII. Depends what they thought of Mussolini.

The Republicans' strength would have been among the German immigrants in Yorkville and the wealthy of the UES (and in Kips Bay/Murray Hill/Gramercy), but the sheer density of the LES probably meant it easily outvoted the UES.

I would guess 55-45 D, but hard to say.

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Certainly true. But I was assuming this district's exact geographic boundaries.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If this was 1946, the seat would likely go to the Republicans no matter who the Dems nominate. But of course, this is 2010, and as such I don't give a damn.

No, even in 1946 Astoria and the LES would have outvoted the UES. It would have been phenomenally polarized back then but probably Democratic.

What were the leanings of Astoria and LES back then? Surely less Dem then they are now. 1946 was strong enough to produce even a one term wonder in such a district, but I am not familiar with what exactly you mean when you say "polarized" (55-45?, 60-40?, somewhere in between?)

No idea on the exact proportions, but the LES was as intensely Democratic back then as it is now, although for different reasons. Immigrants in NYC were almost all Democrats, and there was not a neighborhood with more immigrants than the LES.

Astoria is harder to say, but I think it had a lot of immigrants then, too. Greek immigration didn't really pick up until the 1950s so I'm not sure what immigrant group dominated there in 1946. Presumably they were Democrats, though. Edit: According to Wikipedia, it was Italian before it was Greek. Maybe not so Democratic then, given that 1946 was right after WWII. Depends what they thought of Mussolini.

The Republicans' strength would have been among the German immigrants in Yorkville and the wealthy of the UES (and in Kips Bay/Murray Hill/Gramercy), but the sheer density of the LES probably meant it easily outvoted the UES.

I would guess 55-45 D, but hard to say.

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Certainly true. But I was assuming this district's exact geographic boundaries.

And a 55-45 D seat wouldn't go GOP in an election like 1946? Granted those immigrants would likely be hard core Dems and thus less prone to waves but turnout among them could have been an issue.

[DrScholl]

Saujani isn't that strong of a candidate, so I don't expect Maloney to have any problems. Maloney did face a challenger in the primary that gained about 45% of the vote once, but I doubt Saujani will get that high. In 1992 this seat when Maloney took this seat, she took it from moderate Republican Bill Green and then fended off a strong GOP challenge in 1994. Just thought I add a little bit to the discussion about the district background.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Saujani isn't that strong of a candidate, so I don't expect Maloney to have any problems. Maloney did face a challenger in the primary that gained about 45% of the vote once, but I doubt Saujani will get that high. In 1992 this seat when Maloney took this seat, she took it from moderate Republican Bill Green and then fended off a strong GOP challenge in 1994. Just thought I add a little bit to the discussion about the district background.

There practically isn't a GOP left in the district, anymore. They were wiped out after Green lost in mid and late 90's.

[Lunar]

Saujani will not break 30%. She looked relevant early on, but she's failed to do any serious campaigning. The district does consist of more than the blocks between Park and 5th; Saujani has done nothing more than make social calls to the elite. She will get negligible votes outside of the Upper East Side, which has the lowest Democratic registration rate of all parts of the district to begin with.

Sort of ironic that Maloney is the candidate of Astoria and the Lower East Side. But voters in those places haven't even heard of Saujani before; they know and (mostly) like Maloney.

I heard she was concentrating a lot of her campaigning on Queens

[Verily]

Presumably, she did well among the South Asians at the east end of Astoria (and maybe some confused Arabs who assumed she was Muslim by her name). She won a whopping 19% of the vote.

[Eraserhead]

Wow, the OP seriously predicted 55%-45%? Hmm.

Anyway... funny article time!
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2010/09/15/reshma_will_run_again/