Where did Blanche Lincoln go wrong?

[redcommander]

That she's so far behind in polls.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Obama is President. Also, she's a conserva-dem who then votes for all the Dems major initiatives only after watering them down. That's not going to help her with either side.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I think we're just seeing a correction in voting patterns to match partisan re-alignments that already happened years ago. Arkansas is finally catching up, thanks especially to Obama's enduring unpopularity in the state.

[Mr.Phips]

Obama got elected. 

[The Vorlon]

She is in the wrong state.

She would be a great Senator for Rhode Island, not so much so for Arkansas.

The US has been in a process of political "ethnic cleansing" for many years now where the South is being purified of Democrats whilst the Northeast is being purified of Moderate GOPers.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Makes you wonder how Mark Prior is going to do in his next election. I do have a feeling he's more popular than Lincoln though.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Mark Pryor is absolutely fine.  His father was an extremely popular Governor, and it's not like the Arkansas GOP is particularly potent in the state, even with their gains.  He'll be reelected in 2014, I predict.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's true that no Democrat would be able to hold that seat this year - the environment is just too toxic (though be careful not to project that on to future elections) - but that merely explains defeat, not the likely brutality. Basically she's useless; a neoliberal hack without the wit to adopt a fake folksy populist persona, who represents establishment interests first, foremost and only, and who has drifted from election to election without ever bothering to connect with the electorate.

[Beet]

Interesting that everyone here agrees that she's largely the victim of forces beyond her control, and did not do anything particularly noteworthy to be singled out for such a large defeat.

... And just as I post, here comes Al.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting that everyone here agrees that she's largely the victim of forces beyond her control, and did not do anything particularly noteworthy to be singled out for such a large defeat.

I dissent! I dissent!

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Interesting that everyone here agrees that she's largely the victim of forces beyond her control, and did not do anything particularly noteworthy to be singled out for such a large defeat.

... And just as I post, here comes Al.

No she deserves it. The way she tries to water down any legislation that the Dems are trying to pass is pathetic and doesn't endear her to liberals at all. The fact that she ends up voting for that legislation makes conservatives hate her. She's a terrible politician.

[ottermax]

Is she really a loss to the Democrats if she always votes against everything?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

She is at the top of the list of Democratic Senators that deserve to lose. She was terrible at presenting herself as a "populist", obviously pandered to special interest and was a moderate hero on almost every issue. Basically what Al said, she is definitely a neo-liberal and if she was actually a decent Senator she wouldn't be down 30 points in the polls.

[Sasquatch]

She is a DINO.

[Sam Spade]

It's true that no Democrat would be able to hold that seat this year - the environment is just too toxic (though be careful not to project that on to future elections) - but that merely explains defeat, not the likely brutality. Basically she's useless; a neoliberal hack without the wit to adopt a fake folksy populist persona, who represents establishment interests first, foremost and only, and who has drifted from election to election without ever bothering to connect with the electorate.

Yep.  Agree very much.

In this cycle, there were three obvious Dem incumbents who were going to be in trouble based on their past electoral history if any type of a Republican edge started to appear.  But because of the fact that Obama was Prez, she faced obliteration unlike the other two (who are still alive, of course).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

She took a bunch of useless Moderate Hero positions that pissed off everyone instead of pleasing everyone.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

It's true that no Democrat would be able to hold that seat this year - the environment is just too toxic (though be careful not to project that on to future elections) - but that merely explains defeat, not the likely brutality. Basically she's useless; a neoliberal hack without the wit to adopt a fake folksy populist persona, who represents establishment interests first, foremost and only, and who has drifted from election to election without ever bothering to connect with the electorate.

Yep.  Agree very much.

In this cycle, there were three obvious Dem incumbents who were going to be in trouble based on their past electoral history if any type of a Republican edge started to appear.  But because of the fact that Obama was Prez, she faced obliteration unlike the other two (who are still alive, of course).

Reid and who else?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It's true that no Democrat would be able to hold that seat this year - the environment is just too toxic (though be careful not to project that on to future elections) - but that merely explains defeat, not the likely brutality. Basically she's useless; a neoliberal hack without the wit to adopt a fake folksy populist persona, who represents establishment interests first, foremost and only, and who has drifted from election to election without ever bothering to connect with the electorate.

Yep.  Agree very much.

In this cycle, there were three obvious Dem incumbents who were going to be in trouble based on their past electoral history if any type of a Republican edge started to appear.  But because of the fact that Obama was Prez, she faced obliteration unlike the other two (who are still alive, of course).

Reid and who else?

Feingold?

[HAnnA MArin County]

When Hillary lost the nomination, that's where Blanche Lincoln went wrong. While it's not her fault that Hillary lost, I still think voters in the state are issuing a long overdue referendum on Obama fueled by the deep-seeded remorse and disappointment over the primary. I realize I'm probably in the minority on this, but if this weren't the case, Democrats should have easily held onto this seat in addition to the two House seats that are shaping out to be very competitive (AR-01 and AR-02) where they shouldn't be that competitive. Arkansas did swing wildly GOP in 2008, but every poll that I saw out of Arkansas showed Hillary always leading McCain. Let's assume Hillary won the nomination and carried Arkansas in the general. Would Blanche Lincoln be the most endangered incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator in 2010? I wouldn't think so. Correlate Obama's approval ratings in other states to see if any other incumbent Democratic senators are in as much trouble as she is. Obama was always very disliked in Arkansas and, if memory serves me correctly, I don't even think his campaign opened any offices in Arkansas.

If Arkansas really is going to undergo a political realignment and embrace the Republican Party, is it just going to be at the federal level where they pick up this seat in the Senate and 1-2 seats in the House, or is it going to radiate at the state and local levels where Democrats control pretty much everything in Arkansas, i.e. will Governor Mike Beebe be defeated along with the other statewide elected officials, will Republicans pick up buttloads of seats in the state legislature? It'll be interesting to see how things unfold here in a couple of months.

[DS0816]

Where did Blanche Lincoln go wrong?

Blanche Lincoln is a corporatist who voted for the Patriot Act, the wire-tap surveillance, plenty of destructive Bush/Republican Party legislation and — oh yeah! — she so bravely and defiantly stood up against having a public option in the Senate's version of the healthcare bill (even though it polled more than 55% in support in her home state of Arkansas).

I don't totally fault Lincoln on her stance on the healtcare bill: I think it was what the Obama White House wanted. She and at least four other Senate "Democrats" (mentioned in the next paragraph) are the faction that makes up for the party's "centrist" policy — and, fortunately, overwhelming majority of Dems' losses, in the 2010 congressionals, will come from this sector (especially in the House).

What would've been perfect is if her other corporatist colleagues — Connecticut's Joe Lieberman, Louisiana's Mary Landrieu, and Nebraska's Ben Nelson — would've been facing an election year. But at least Indiana's Evan Bayh was on the schedule — before he whined about not liking being a member of the U.S. Senate after pursuing it, winning it, and working in it for 12 years.



Once the polls close in Ark. on Election Night, hopefully the exit polling shows that the state can be called right away — for John Boozman.


Links:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/poll-arkansas-voters-disagree-with-lincolns-public-option-skepticism.php

http://www.politico.com/blogs/glennthrush/1009/Ark_poll_Public_option_popular_Lincoln_not.html

[DS0816]

Is she really a loss to the Democrats if she always votes against everything?

Only to the White House. Which is partly why President Obama fought to get her re-nominated (courtesy of ex-president and Arkansas native son Bill Clinton). She votes the way the President wants. A team player. And, even though Lt. Gov. Bill Halter would've performed better in the general (had he defeated her in the primaries), this Obama White House would prefer to [guarantee] lose the seat than take a chance on someone not in their inner circle. (They couldn't fight the forces in Pennsylvania.)

[DS0816]

When Hillary lost the nomination, that's where Blanche Lincoln went wrong. While it's not her fault that Hillary lost, I still think voters in the state are issuing a long overdue referendum on Obama fueled by the deep-seeded remorse and disappointment over the primary. I realize I'm probably in the minority on this, but if this weren't the case, Democrats should have easily held onto this seat in addition to the two House seats that are shaping out to be very competitive (AR-01 and AR-02) where they shouldn't be that competitive. Arkansas did swing wildly GOP in 2008, but every poll that I saw out of Arkansas showed Hillary always leading McCain. Let's assume Hillary won the nomination and carried Arkansas in the general. Would Blanche Lincoln be the most endangered incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator in 2010? I wouldn't think so. Correlate Obama's approval ratings in other states to see if any other incumbent Democratic senators are in as much trouble as she is. Obama was always very disliked in Arkansas and, if memory serves me correctly, I don't even think his campaign opened any offices in Arkansas.

I'm not going as far as you suggest, but…

2004 John Kerry garnered 49% of female vote; 2008 Obama saw a substantial decline, down to 39%. That's why Arkansas shifted polar opposite direction to that of the rest of the country. (Remember: to flip a state, you have to immediately win the vote of the gender that supports your party more so than the opposite sex. Republicans win males before females; Democrats win females before males.)

Hillary would've been near 60% females, maybe a little more than that.

Democratic male support, in 2004 and 2008, was the same: 40%.

Hillary would've flipped/carried Arkansas.

As for whether Lincoln would be in danger had it been Hillary: depends on the former First Lady's leadership as president.

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Prior to Barack Obama, every Democratic president carried the state of Arkansas. The state was 9.76% for 2004 Bush in 2004, and Obama shifted that election's popular vote margin (over to 2008), D+9.73%. In answer to your question: it may be too early to ask that question.