This can't be right--PPP polled an electorate that voted only 52% for McCain. So unless Perry is greatly depressing turnout from Republicans, this is probably a more Liberal demographic than the state as a whole.
Perry is not popular. That he would be depressing Republican turnout is not out of the question.
Well, if an unpopular governor running for a 3rd term against a popular former mayor of the largest city in the state in a highly depressed turnout election can win by 6 points, Democrats future in Texas doesn't look to bright at least for the near future. Especially given that Perry's biggest weakness is that he barely gets above
An interesting note is that the under-30 demographic is both candidate's worst in terms of approval. It supports White 55-25, but supports Dewhurst 44-41 for LT. governor, which suggests it really doesn't like Perry, but is by no means loyal to the Democratic party. I wish PPP had polled an Obama approval number to remove more variables however.
Also interesting is the inroads Republicans have made with African-American voters; both Republicans are hovering around 20% of their vote with over 20% still undecided in both races. I think Bush never did better than Single digits with Texas blacks in 2004, so this looks like an improvement.
Finally, White is winning Hispanics by roughly the same margin (26 points) that Obama carried in 2008 in Texas, which suggest they have moved to the right relative to the state as a whole given that this sample is more Obama-friendly than the 2008 electorate (and that Perry is under-performing McCain statewide). Either Liberal Hispanics aren't planning on going to the polls but are outweighed by Conservative Whites not going to the polls, undecided Hispanics are going to break for White, or there's been some rightward shift in their voting intentions.
