The "Portillo Moments"

[Phony Moderate]

What were the "Portillo Moments" of each UK General Election?

1970 - George Brown, Belper
Feb 1974 -
Oct 1974 -
1979 -
1983 - Tony Benn, Bristol South East
1987 -
1992 - Chris Patten, Bath
1997 - Michael Portillo, Enfield Southgate (obviously)
2001 -
2005 - Tim Collins, Westmorland and Lonsdale
2010 - Either Jacqui Smith, Redditch or Charles Clarke, Norwich South. Possibly Lembit Opik, Montgomeryshire.

[You kip if you want to...]

2010 - Either Jacqui Smith, Redditch or Charles Clarke, Norwich South. Possibly Lembit Opik, Montgomeryshire.

Peter Robinson.

Let's not forget the "None-Portillo moment" in Morely and Outwood.

[Harry Hayfield]

What were the "Portillo Moments" of each UK General Election?

1970 - George Brown, Belper
Feb 1974 - Wolverhampton South West (17% swing to Lab)
Oct 1974 - Carmarthen (Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour)
1979 -
1983 - Tony Benn, Bristol South East
1987 - Alliance HOLD Brecon and Radnor
1992 - Chris Patten, Bath
1997 - Michael Portillo, Enfield Southgate (obviously)
2001 - Labour GAIN Ynys Mon from Plaid or Labour GAIN Dorset South from Con or Independent GAIN Wyre Forest from Lab
2005 - Tim Collins, Westmorland and Lonsdale
2010 - Either Jacqui Smith, Redditch or Charles Clarke, Norwich South. Possibly Lembit Opik, Montgomeryshire.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd never heard a reference to a 'Portillo Moment' until, well, this year I think. At the time the term used was 'were you up for Portillo?'*

But if we are to use it then we have to remember why Portillo's defeat was so iconic. It wasn't just because such a high profile and senior member of the government was defeated (he wasn't even the most senior cabinet minister to be defeated that election; Rifkind was Foreign Secretary), or even because of the immense swing (Portillo's majority in 1992 was close to a third of votes cast in his constituency), although those were both factors. It was because Portillo was a widely hated figure at the time and because he was obviously planning to run for the leadership of the Tory party after the election (infamously he had phone-lines installed to his office for that purpose). Hubris met nemesis live on the telly. Probably the last time an individual constituency result caused that level of gloating was when Manny Shinwell hammered MacDonald in Seaham in 1935.

Btw, a list of all ministers to loose their seats from 1905 until 2005 be here: http://www.election.demon.co.uk/defminis.html

Interestingly, no serving cabinet minister has been defeated since 1997.

*No.

[doktorb]

It was a term created in 1997, and now 'retconned' to fit any similiar pre-97 victory or defeat.

[DL]

I think the "Portillo moment" this was year was SUPPOSED to be Ed Balls being defeated - but he foiled that by being re-elected!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think the "Portillo moment" this was year was SUPPOSED to be Ed Balls being defeated - but he foiled that by being re-elected!

It wouldn't been even had he lost. At the time he was nowhere near as high profile as Portillo was in 1997. Political obsessives tend to forget how little ordinary people pay attention to politics outside General Election campaigns; about the only time he was the centre of attention was when he fired Sharon Shoesmith.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, and the most high-profile defeat in 1979 was Shirley Williams in Hertford & Stevenage. She was the last sitting Labour cabinet minister to have been defeated in a General Election. And if you want a high-profile defeat in 1987, there's always Roy Jenkins (Glasgow Hillhead) and Enoch Powell (South Down) though, obviously, neither were in the Cabinet at the time...

[Phony Moderate]

Roy Jenkins (Glasgow Hillhead)

Oh yeah, by a certain leftie with a tash....

[RodPresident]

Can I put some Portillo moments in Brazilian politics?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can I put some Portillo moments in Brazilian politics?

Additional electoral trivia is always welcome here! So, yes

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Didn't Arthur Balfour lose his seat in 1905? That should qualify as a bigger Portillo moment than even Portillo himself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Didn't Arthur Balfour lose his seat in 1905? That should qualify as a bigger Portillo moment than even Portillo himself.

Yeah, but that was before the age of the broadcast media. It was also in an age when the number of genuinely safe seats was quite a bit smaller than now (and when most of them were essentially out of bounds for aspiring politicians; if you were a Unionist and wanted a safe seat in Birmingham then you had to become a cog in Joseph Chamberlain's machine. If you were a Liberal and wanted a safe seat in rural or industrial Wales you had to become an advocate of the distinctive brand of Liberalism dominant in the area and so on). People then were used to extremely senior politicians losing their seats.

[Phony Moderate]

What about the two 1974 Elections?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What about the two 1974 Elections?

Not many high profile people lost in either. I think the Secretary of State for Scotland in the Health government lost in February, while the leader of the UUP (Harry West) lost Fermanagh & South Tyrone in October.

[Phony Moderate]

What about the two 1974 Elections?

Health government

[Hash]

The big one in Quebec is Bertrand 1985, obviously. Party leader and PM-to-be loses in his own riding while sailing to a landslide win.

Though to be fair he had only won this traditionally PQ seat in a by-election. Yet, the defeat of the leader of a party who wins a landslide is extremely rare.

In France, in terms of recent stuff, you've got Juppe's 2007 defeat (though the whole runoff was unforeseen), Giscard's 2004 defeat in Auvergne, Aubry's 2002 defeat to some 20-something nobody, 1993 obviously had lots of shock defeats (Rocard in Conflans, Jospin in Cintegabelle, Hollande in Tulle).

In Brazil, where my knowledge of local political culture is weak, Wagner's 2006 win in Bahia was not predicted by polls, Cardoso's defeat by Janio in the SP mayoral race in 1985 is a big one as would be Dutra's landslide win in 1945 (where the common wisdom in a pre-polling era was that Gomes would trounce Dutra)

[Хahar 🤔]

Manny Shinwell was an MP until 1970. I did not know that.

[RodPresident]

I will select some Portillo Moments in Brazilian politics:
2008: Alckmin's defeat in São Paulo. He was favourite, but he didn't went to run-off. ACM Neto's 1st round defeat was also very surprising, because he had support of popular radialist Raimundo Varela and UCKG's machine. He would go to lose in run-off, because Salvador is a very anti-carlist city.
2006: Roseana's defeat in Maranhão state elections. She was favourite to gain in 1st round, went to run-off, and lost. But her influential dad has friends that get job to her in electoral justice.
Paulo Souto was favourite to gain a landslide in Bahia, but strong campaigning by Lula changed everything. In day before election, Wagner was fighting to get a run-off, but he won in 1st round.
2004: Amazonino Mendes' defeat in Manaus. His defeat destroyed his two-decade political dominance of Amazonas. This election showed also the end of malufism as political force in São Paulo.
2002: Lula's wave helped PT in many states. In Piauí, unknown deputy Wellington Dias defeated incumbent governor and former senator Hugo Napoleão. In Ceará, José Airton Cirilo almost defeated Lucio Alcântara, that was candidate supported by Ciro and Jereissati. In Mato Grosso, governor Dante de Oliveira lose 2-seats senatorial contest to Jonas Pinheiro and Serys Slhessarenko. Another historic defeated were Iris Rezende in his reelection senatorial bid, Leonel Brizola that were put in 6th place in his former stronghold in RJ to senate and Antônio Brito that was put in a distant 3rd place in Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial contest. Maluf also didn't make into run-off
1998: Francisco Rossi that was early favourite to governorship in São Paulo, but he was put to a 4th place and Orestes Quércia's distant 5th place. Also remarkable were Arraes' defeat at Jarbas Vasconcellos' hands and Pedrossian's surprising defeat in Mato Grosso do Sul to Zeca do PT.
1994: Quércia, Brizola and Amin were defeated in presidential contest for 3rd place for funny and inteligent long-bearded Dr. Enéas Carneiro of Prona. César Schirmer was an early favourite to Rio Grande do Sul's senatorial contest, but he was defeated by unknown Emília Fernandes strongly supported by radialist Sérgio Zambiasi. Plano Real favoured PSDB candidates in Pará against early favourites to governorship, Jarbas Passarinho and Hélio Costa, respectively.
1989: Ulysses Guimarães' 7th place in presidential election because rejection to Sarney government, that he kept his support during hyperinflation crisis. Another bad performance was by former Vice-President Aureliano Chaves, that was Sarney's minister.

[Phony Moderate]

Will Chris Huhne be the star of the next election's "Portillo Moment"?

[You kip if you want to...]

Will Chris Huhne be the star of the next election's "Portillo Moment"?

Will Nick Clegg? His personal vote, which was probably substancial this year, will probably be destroyed at the next election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, but he'd still win anyway; Tory organisation in Sheffield has collapsed and, obviously, Labour are not a threat in Hallam.

[YL]

Yeah, but he'd still win anyway; Tory organisation in Sheffield has collapsed and, obviously, Labour are not a threat in Hallam.

It's possible to imagine boundary changes which would change the second point there.

[You kip if you want to...]

Yeah, but he'd still win anyway; Tory organisation in Sheffield has collapsed and, obviously, Labour are not a threat in Hallam.

It's possible to imagine boundary changes which would change the second point there.

It'd be ironic if Clegg lost his seat due to difficult boundary changes. Well, atleast it's have an equal electorate.