Let's be serious

[Reaganfan]

I honestly don't believe Daniels, Palin, or Huckabee are seriously running for President. If any of those three are, it's most likely Huckabee.

On the other hand...Romney, Pawlenty, and Santorum are definitely running.

The questions still out on Barbour, Gingrich, and Thune.

Over all, I think Santorum and Pawlenty are the most aggressive for the Presidency at this point. (Even more-so than the actual President, Barack Obama)

[Bull Moose Base]

I'd ballpark like this:

Romney, Pawlenty - definite
Johnson, Santorum, Thune, Barbour - likely
Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich - about even odds of a run
Daniels, Paul, Pence - unlikely

Regarding Huckabee and Palin, I think it's just as likely both run as neither do.  But I think one of the two running is the most likely scenario.  I'd rank Palin a little more likely to run than Huckabee.  I even think Palin could do something crazy like run for president for 2 months then quit.  Both have the luxury of getting in late.
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Gingrich's Iowa visits suggest more serious intention if he hadn't cried wolf before/encouraged Daniels to run (according to Daniels).

I'd rank the odds of a Santorum run below Romney and Pawlenty because there's a reasonable chance he's just bluffing for press too.

If Daniels passes, Pence becomes more likely.

Johnson would be definite but for the slight chance Paul decides to run.

[The Mikado]

Frankly, I didn't use to think that Palin would run, but I think that, at this point, she could just get dragged into the race by her crazy partisans.

[J. J.]

I honestly don't believe Daniels, Palin, or Huckabee are seriously running for President. If any of those three are, it's most likely Huckabee.

On the other hand...Romney, Pawlenty, and Santorum are definitely running.

The questions still out on Barbour, Gingrich, and Thune.

Over all, I think Santorum and Pawlenty are the most aggressive for the Presidency at this point. (Even more-so than the actual President, Barack Obama)

Daniels, probably, though not definitely.

[Mint]

I think Paul Ryan, Rick Perry and David Petraeus are all real possibilities at this point yet no one talks about the first two. At least not anywhere near as much as nobodies like Thune.

[The Mikado]

Rick Perry

Considering that even the Texas Republican Party tolerates, not loves him, I don't see that at all.

[Mr. Morden]

I think Paul Ryan, Rick Perry and David Petraeus are all real possibilities at this point yet no one talks about the first two. At least not anywhere near as much as nobodies like Thune.

Presidential buzz doesn't just bubble out of a vacuum though.  (Well, except maybe in the case of Daniels.)  It comes up because the guy does things that clearly hint at a run, or when asked about a run he refuses to rule it out.  Thune is mentioned as a potential candidate because when asked about it, he gives answers like this:

http://www.gop12.com/2010/08/thune-no-2012-timetable.html

[exopolitician]

I think Paul Ryan, Rick Perry and David Petraeus are all real possibilities at this point yet no one talks about the first two. At least not anywhere near as much as nobodies like Thune.

Good lord he just needs to go away. Maybe by some miracle we can kick him out of the Governor's chair this year.

[pbrower2a]

I think Paul Ryan, Rick Perry and David Petraeus are all real possibilities at this point yet no one talks about the first two. At least not anywhere near as much as nobodies like Thune.

Rick Perry? He is the sort who would inspire secessionist talk in a bunch of states in which secessionist talk is now rare.

Paul Ryan is at least two steps away (House of Representatives) from the Presidency.

David Petraeus? He is the sort who wins a re-election in a landslide for a sitting President (yes, I think that (a) graceful exits from Iraq and Afghanistan would be good enough for an Obama landslide) before running for the Presidency should he so choose.

[You kip if you want to...]

If Huckabee and Palin don't run, then Romney may as well just declare himself the nominee now.

[??????????]

Rick Perry? He is the sort who would inspire secessionist talk in a bunch of states in which secessionist talk is now rare.

I wish! However, I'm liking how Christie works.

[Mint]

I think Paul Ryan, Rick Perry and David Petraeus are all real possibilities at this point yet no one talks about the first two. At least not anywhere near as much as nobodies like Thune.

Good lord he just needs to go away. Maybe by some miracle we can kick him out of the Governor's chair this year.

Oh don't get me wrong, I despise all of them but Perry has sort of a faux-'outsider'/Tea Bagger thing going on in addition to occupying a fairly weak executive position. Republicans eat that stuff up, and it's non-threatening to the people at the top donating. Notice how the Republicans haven't nominated anyone with serious business experience or executive experience in decades...

[pbrower2a]

Rick Perry? He is the sort who would inspire secessionist talk in a bunch of states in which secessionist talk is now rare.

I wish! However, I'm liking how Christie works.

Do you really mean it? Do you want to see postage stamps and coins marked "Republic of Michigan"? Elect Rick Perry as President and you might end up with a more interesting stamp and coin collections...

[Bull Moose Base]

If Huckabee and Palin don't run, then Romney may as well just declare himself the nominee now.

I've argued for a long time Romney's worst case scenario is actually that Huckabee and Palin both pass, leaving space for someone who was a more serious threat to him.  But I'm not sure anymore.  I think Huckabee can beat Romney with the new rules.  And in Palin's case, on one hand, all the media attention on her makes it harder for Thune or Pawlenty to win Iowa, get momentum and top tier status.  On the other, all the media attention on her would amplify her attacks against Romney if she were running much more than if they were coming from anyone else.  I mean, I could see her landing a fatal blow on Romney's candidacy even if she herself doesn't end up the beneficiary.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Why wouldn't Daniels run? He have nothing to lose, as he's term-limited anyway in 2012?

[You kip if you want to...]

Why wouldn't Daniels run? He have nothing to lose, as he's term-limited anyway in 2012?

He might not want to be president.

[pbrower2a]

Why wouldn't Daniels run? He have nothing to lose, as he's term-limited anyway in 2012?

Senator Richard Lugar will be about 80, and his health could fail at any time. There could be an open senate seat, and who knows? Evan Bayh might be running. US Senate, Indiana is a better chance for Mitch Daniels in 2012 (even if it depends upon the health of Richard Lugar) than is the Presidency.

[Bull Moose Base]

Any interview with Daniels's wife, she seems to genuinely despise the idea of him running.  I assume that's the biggest reason for his not running.

[DS0816]

Let's be serious

Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney: definitely
Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune: exploratory committee
Mike Huckabee: declined stock (for now)
Mitch Daniels, Gary Johnson: outsiders
Rick Santorum: irrelevant

[milhouse24]

Some are running just to position themselves for the VP because they are not deemed "ready yet or not yet in line"  Thune, Gingrich, and Santorum are experienced guys but don't have the national exposure yet or likeability to be president.  The VP is more of a "policy wonk" who can get things done in the legislature.  The President is usually someone with a Big, Likeable personality.  If Romney were Christian, he would get the nod, but Christian Conservatives will never let a Mormon win the nomination in Iowa or SC.  Romney's best chance is VP.  So for serious Christian Conservative leaders, it leaves Haley Barbour, Huckabee, Palin (maybe), Pawlenty.  Daniels is not a religious firebrand and that would cost him votes in Iowa and SC, and he's too quiet with midwestern blandness.