template 2012 electoral map with new electoral vote totals?

[RIP Robert H Bork]

How does one make a new template map?

[Psychic Octopus]

How does one make a new template map?

First, see the wording you copy,

Second, Scroll over to the States.

Third, Change the Number. Example:

VA=2;13;5

Change to

VA=2;14;5

The copy and paste.

voila.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

My prediction is this.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

How does one make a new template map?

First, see the wording you copy,

Second, Scroll over to the States.

Third, Change the Number. Example:

VA=2;13;5

Change to

VA=2;14;5

The copy and paste.

voila.

Thank you! Step 1 was a bit confusing, but I was able to understand on my own that it meant the text in the Show Map Link window.

[pbrower2a]

I like how The South is gaining more EVs, while bigger Northern and Western states lose theirs. Why is that?

Northern states are hemorrhaging industrial jobs that tend to be moving toward the Sunbelt, where "Right-to-Work (for much less -- snide commentary)" prevail, where states rely heavily upon regressive sales taxes instead of income taxes, and state and local governments give huge subsidies to industrial entities moving in. Add to this, the Northern states are also losing lots of people who don't like the sunless winters with heavy snows.

The northern states become increasingly left-wing in politics as their populations shrink, but economic and solar migrants (industrial workers and retirees) bring their political culture with them.   

[ComeAndTakeIt53]

K, thank you.

[Derek]

I say encourage as many as you can to move from blue states to red states. This would add to states like Texas and Arizona and take from states like New York and California.

[pbrower2a]

[/quote]

"Blue" Firewall                        242 

Gore + NH, Kerry + IA+ NM     257

With these and one of

CO + NV (14)                          271
FL                                           286
GA                                          273
MO + MT (13)                          270
OH                                          277
NC                                          273
VA                                           271

Obama wins.

I say encourage as many as you can to move from blue states to red states. This would add to states like Texas and Arizona and take from states like New York and California.

Too late! The Census is based on population as of April 1, 2010. It is over.

[Mjh]

"Blue" Firewall                        242 

Gore + NH, Kerry + IA+ NM     257

With these and one of

CO + NV (14)                          271
FL                                           286
GA                                          273
MO + MT (13)                          270
OH                                          277
NC                                          273
VA                                           271

Obama wins.

I say encourage as many as you can to move from blue states to red states. This would add to states like Texas and Arizona and take from states like New York and California.

Too late! The Census is based on population as of April 1, 2010. It is over.
[/quote]

Nothing lasts forever in politics. Not even the "Blue Firewall".

[pbrower2a]

Nothing lasts forever in politics. Not even the "Blue Firewall".

But it will take time for the GOP to quit offending the "secular-socialist" (as Gingrich calls them) affinities in the Blue Firewall.  It remains largely an urban-rural split, and with the arguable exception of Vermont, the states that the Democrats have won reliably since 1992 are very urban. Government is as a rule more expensive in urban areas than in rural areas. Highway construction and improvement, education, law enforcement, and sanitation are all more expensive in Dallas, Texas than in Rosebud, Texas.

Suburbia, once a reliable source of GOP voters, is no longer so reliable for the GOP. Suburbia is legitimately urban. Think of salaries for teachers and cops; cops must be paid well so that they don't gravitate to the unofficial payroll of gangsters. Teachers who might have no viable alternatives of employment in rural Nebraska can be paid less there than they can in Omaha, where there are clerical and sales jobs. New four-lane freeway through the woods of northern Michigan is less costly than adding four lanes the same length in Detroit -- or even Lansing. 





 

[sentinel]

Didn't read the entire thread, but isn't it 539 for 2012? Utah gains an extra one.

[nhmagic]

Nothing lasts forever in politics. Not even the "Blue Firewall".

But it will take time for the GOP to quit offending the "secular-socialist" (as Gingrich calls them) affinities in the Blue Firewall.  It remains largely an urban-rural split, and with the arguable exception of Vermont, the states that the Democrats have won reliably since 1992 are very urban. Government is as a rule more expensive in urban areas than in rural areas. Highway construction and improvement, education, law enforcement, and sanitation are all more expensive in Dallas, Texas than in Rosebud, Texas.

Suburbia, once a reliable source of GOP voters, is no longer so reliable for the GOP. Suburbia is legitimately urban. Think of salaries for teachers and cops; cops must be paid well so that they don't gravitate to the unofficial payroll of gangsters. Teachers who might have no viable alternatives of employment in rural Nebraska can be paid less there than they can in Omaha, where there are clerical and sales jobs. New four-lane freeway through the woods of northern Michigan is less costly than adding four lanes the same length in Detroit -- or even Lansing. 





 

Uh, Maine and New Hampshire arent really urban, trust me-got lost for an hour two weeks ago in a place that felt and looked like backwoods Kentucky (im moving there saturday from az), and I think the Manchester area, the most urban in area in NH, is usually won by republicans.  Portland ME is definitely urban and really crunchy.  I think Portland is so uber-liberal that it makes it hard for a more right wing conservative republican to win the state. 

[°Leprechaun]

There is a map at wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

[pbrower2a]

Nothing lasts forever in politics. Not even the "Blue Firewall".

But it will take time for the GOP to quit offending the "secular-socialist" (as Gingrich calls them) affinities in the Blue Firewall.  It remains largely an urban-rural split, and with the arguable exception of Vermont, the states that the Democrats have won reliably since 1992 are very urban. Government is as a rule more expensive in urban areas than in rural areas. Highway construction and improvement, education, law enforcement, and sanitation are all more expensive in Dallas, Texas than in Rosebud, Texas.

Suburbia, once a reliable source of GOP voters, is no longer so reliable for the GOP. Suburbia is legitimately urban. Think of salaries for teachers and cops; cops must be paid well so that they don't gravitate to the unofficial payroll of gangsters. Teachers who might have no viable alternatives of employment in rural Nebraska can be paid less there than they can in Omaha, where there are clerical and sales jobs. New four-lane freeway through the woods of northern Michigan is less costly than adding four lanes the same length in Detroit -- or even Lansing. 

Uh, Maine and New Hampshire arent really urban, trust me-got lost for an hour two weeks ago in a place that felt and looked like backwoods Kentucky (im moving there saturday from az), and I think the Manchester area, the most urban in area in NH, is usually won by republicans.  Portland ME is definitely urban and really crunchy.  I think Portland is so uber-liberal that it makes it hard for a more right wing conservative republican to win the state. 

The urban-rural divide is obvious in some states -- Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Virginia in or near the Blue Firewall. Even outside, Greater Atlanta, Memphis, and New Orleans are very liberal bastions in conservative states.   Texas has a bunch of big cities (and except for Lubbock, Amarillo, and perhaps Fort Worth they are much more liberal than the state as a whole). Anyone who can't distinguish rural and urban Texas as very different ways of life hasn't been in Texas.


So the D-R divide isn't entirely a rural-urban split. Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine were very Republican and rather conservative for a long time. Maybe those three states in upper New England have been very homogeneous for a long time.

The Blue Firewall seems to reflect political culture. Maybe it is that people in northern New England act urban even if they are in rural areas.  Christian fundamentalism is extremely weak in all of New England. If Christian fundamentalism is weak, then either secularism, liberal Christianity, Roman Catholicism, Mormonism, or Buddhism (Hawaii) is strong. Of those, only Mormonism is clearly anti-liberal in its politics today.

 

[Derek]

I like any map where the south gains and the rust belt loses.

[pbrower2a]

I like any map where the south gains and the rust belt loses.

The Blue Firewall practically assures 258 electoral votes for President Obama so long as he isn't a disaster.

Any one of the states in yellow would be enough as a add-on singly to win it all for Obama.

Any one of those in green and one in white or green would be enough as add-ons to win it all for Obama.

[muon2]

There is a map at wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

That's the one from the Polidata firm. My projections are similar, but I have TX gaining 3 and AZ gaining 2 instead of 4 and 1 as they project. My alternate projection on the thread here (third post down), matches Polidata. It uses greater weight on population trends during the recession.

[Derek]

I've been seeing ones where:

FL and AZ +2
Texas +4
GA +1
SC +1
NC +1
NV +1
UT +1
OR +1
VA +1
MO -1
CA -1
WA -1
PA -1
IL -1
MN -1
IA -1
NY -2
OH -2
NJ -1
MA -1
LA -1
MI -1

I know that's wishful thinking on my part, but you never know. That would be for 2012.

[muon2]

I've been seeing ones where:

FL and AZ +2
Texas +4
GA +1
SC +1
NC +1
NV +1
UT +1
OR +1
VA +1
MO -1
CA -1
WA -1
PA -1
IL -1
MN -1
IA -1
NY -2
OH -2
NJ -1
MA -1
LA -1
MI -1

I know that's wishful thinking on my part, but you never know. That would be for 2012.

I haven't seen any projections that increase VA. Many of the others in this list are consistent with projections made a couple of years ago. The recession has changed those projections, so that NY is less likely to lose 2, and FL is less likely to gain 2, for example.