What percentage of the Latino vote will Obama win in 2012?

[Bo]

70-74%

[pbrower2a]

Unless the GOP nominee does something remarkable, like suggesting that Spanish be made an official language of the United States, I can't see how the GOP wins over more than about 25% of the Hispanic votes.   

[Ebowed]

75-79, though that's assuming he can accomplish something meaningful in the way of immigration reform to the Latino community.

The Republican candidates will probably fall over themselves racing to denounce any sort of pro-human rights legislation regarding the subject, so that always helps.

[California8429]

If Amnesty passes, over 85%

If we get a minority/Hispanic on the ticket....Obama drops below 50%

[The Mikado]

If Amnesty passes, over 85%

If we get a minority/Hispanic on the ticket....Obama drops below 50%

Hah either way.  Even with Rubio in the VP slot on the GOP, Obama would still get 55-60% of the Hispanic vote.  The Hispanics of America know who their friends are, and it isn't the party of Tom Tancredo.

[Eraserhead]

If Amnesty passes, over 85%

If we get a minority/Hispanic on the ticket....Obama drops below 50%

Hah either way.  Even with Rubio in the VP slot on the GOP, Obama would still get 55-60% of the Hispanic vote.  The Hispanics of America know who their friends are, and it isn't the party of Tom Tancredo.

Although, hilariously, even Tom Tancredo thinks that this new racist Arizona law goes too far:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/04/26/tancredo_says_arizona_law_goes_too_far.html

As for the question at hand, 70-74% sounds about right. It would be pretty tough for Obama to get much higher than that, no matter what.

[Frodo]

Nearly 80% if not more -I think Latinos (as well as other minorities) nationwide are keenly aware by now how unwelcome they are in the GOP which has pretty much made a conscious decision to be a white man's party albeit with a few token minority congressmen tossed into the mix.  

[RIP Robert H Bork]

75%.

Although, hilariously, even Tom Tancredo thinks that this new racist Arizona law goes too far:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/04/26/tancredo_says_arizona_law_goes_too_far.html

Wow.

[Zarn]

65%? *shrugs*

[Bo]

65%? *shrugs*

Obama won 68% of the Latino vote in 2008, I believe. I can't see him getting less than that (unless the economy massively deteriorates again before the election).

[justW353]

If amnesty passes, around 85%.

[redcommander]

I don't think that over 80% of Hispanics will blindly vote for Obama just because he gave amnesty to illegal immigrants who happen to be of the same race. For Republicans, Rubio would be disastrous a vp, almost as bad as Palin. If Republicans want a hispanic on the national ticket in 2012, they need someone with experience who won't end up similar to Palin like Rubio would. Brian Sandoval in Nevada would be an excellent choice. Perhaps Susanna Martinez of New Mexico and Mario Diaz-Balart. A more moderate Hispanic would be much better in 2012, but considering how rightwing the national party has gotten, it may be more unlikely that a moderate will be on the 2012 ticket at all. I don't see any ticket pulling above 45% in the Hispanic community though currently, and that is probably being generous.

[Zarn]

65%? *shrugs*

Obama won 68% of the Latino vote in 2008, I believe. I can't see him getting less than that (unless the economy massively deteriorates again before the election).

That's a strange assumption. I guess you 'know' Obama will win in a landslide?

[The Mikado]

I don't see any ticket pulling above 45% in the Hispanic community though currently, and that is probably being generous.

That's about the right level.  I posted earlier in the thread that even with a Hispanic on the GOP ticket, Obama's floor is around 55-60%. I think that without that element, he could probably match or slightly underperform his 2008 performance and get around 2/3rds of the Hispanic vote.

[Bo]

BUMP, for the newbies

[nclib]

If Amnesty passes, over 85%

If we get a minority/Hispanic on the ticket....Obama drops below 50%

Hah either way.  Even with Rubio in the VP slot on the GOP, Obama would still get 55-60% of the Hispanic vote.  The Hispanics of America know who their friends are, and it isn't the party of Tom Tancredo.

Although, hilariously, even Tom Tancredo thinks that this new racist Arizona law goes too far:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/04/26/tancredo_says_arizona_law_goes_too_far.html

Actually he didn't. Read the update.

[5280]

Option 5