Pew: Millennials and Gen Xers outvoted Boomers and older generations in 2016

[Beet]

You can dismiss me all you want, but you aren't entitled to your own facts.

Fact is that millennials will only have their voice represented in politics if they choose to get active in the Party apparatus and electoral process. Yelling about how unfair the Democratic Party is to young people all is over the Internet doesn't change that fact.

Plenty of millennials have gotten involved. They get no support from the party geriatrics. A young lady in NJ even switched parties to run solely for that reason.

Have they though? I remember Biden's speech at his Harvard commencement address pointed out that after Trump was elected that the number of Harvard students interested in going into public service declined significantly.

It seems like the only enthusiasm thus far from millennials getting active have been from the conservative front these last 8 years (Democratic President) as a result of midterms lashing out against the Party in the White House.

Bull sh**t. There have been plenty of millennials around to be campus SJW. Some of that energy could have been channeled into politics by a more competent party.

[Technocracy Timmy]

You can dismiss me all you want, but you aren't entitled to your own facts.

Fact is that millennials will only have their voice represented in politics if they choose to get active in the Party apparatus and electoral process. Yelling about how unfair the Democratic Party is to young people all is over the Internet doesn't change that fact.

Plenty of millennials have gotten involved. They get no support from the party geriatrics. A young lady in NJ even switched parties to run solely for that reason.

Have they though? I remember Biden's speech at his Harvard commencement address pointed out that after Trump was elected that the number of Harvard students interested in going into public service declined significantly.

It seems like the only enthusiasm thus far from millennials getting active have been from the conservative front these last 8 years (Democratic President) as a result of midterms lashing out against the Party in the White House.

Bull sh**t. There have been plenty of millennials around to be campus SJW. Some of that energy could have been channeled into politics by a more competent party.

SJWism manifests itself most in online slaktivism and shutting down speakers who come to their colleges.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Has there been any studies on if millennials are more eager to vote in 2018 and 2020 compared to past elections? (Namely 2016, 2014, and 2010).

If we don't show up then the GOP will retain their House majority (since we need to win the PV by 7 points or so to flip it) and the Midwest + Florida will keep the WH in the hands of Trump or Pence.

[AN63093]

I think Beet's tone does have a little bit of a "Chicken Little" aspect to it, but there is still a point there to be made that I do not think should be so nonchalantly waved off as well.

It is true his sample size is small, so one should be hesitant to draw any definitive conclusions from it.  Additionally, it is possible that one large "wave" election could completely correct for this.  It is also possible, as Timmy mentioned, that conservatives just "get involved" earlier in their lives.  All plausible explanations.

On the other hand, while maybe it's not something to be alarmist about (yet), I absolutely think it's worth keeping an eye on.  If this trend continues over the next decade, then I think we can start drawing some conclusions about differences in voter enthusiasm, levels of political apathy, willingness to participate/get involved, and so on.  All these factors could have the combined effect of essentially "neutralizing" the fact that a majority of millennials are Democrats, and such a statistic could become just a factoid with limited relevance.

[AN63093]

Anyways, going back to the original post- the statistic that would be most worrisome for the GOP would be the advantage the Dems have with millennials in party identification.  However, there are a couple of reasons why I think Dems should be cautious to place all their bets on "demographics is destiny."

First, note the high number of independents, which are also significantly higher than in previous generations, especially Boomers and earlier.  What would be interesting is to examine how those independents actually break down- I think we can all probably agree that only a portion of those independents are actual centrists or moderates, and rather, a significant number (maybe even a majority), are either right or left leaning independents that don't identify with their party establishment (e.g., Sanders supporters, the Alt-Right, etc.).  How those independents break down may be just as important, if not more so, than the fact that 55% of millennials are Dems.

Second, and this is a big problem I have with "demographics is destiny" theories that I've never been able to get a great counter-argument to, is that such theories rarely take into account geographical dispersion.  As long as the US is a federalist system with states and an electoral college, national statistics like these are always going to need an asterisk by them.  

One trend that I'd like to see studied more in-depth (I've seen some articles here and there on this, but nothing as academically rigorous as I'd prefer), are migration patterns of millennials- is there a re-suburbanization trend?  Is there a trend of moving out of coastal states, and towards say, the mid-west or interior west or non-coastal South?

Because if the answer is "no," and most millennials live in large urban areas in half a dozen states, then it may become somewhat irrelevant how much of a edge Dems have in party identification among millennials.  Now, of course, the census and redistricting should correct for this over time, but it will still lag behind population trends and there will still be enough Boomers across the nation, at least for the next decade or two.  By the time that generation is finally all "gone," the post-millennial generation will have started voting as well, such that it's possible that the electoral college never really reflects the millennials' voting power.  In that case, I would imagine more elections like 2016 will happen, with a PV/EV disparity.

However, I have to imagine that the answer is "yes," and that eventually, a millennial that moved to San Francisco from.. I dunno, Omaha or something, and is paying thousands of dollars to live in what was once a utility closet, on the second floor of a warehouse with 20 other people that is in violation of building code and isn't zoned for residential use, finally decides that they aren't actually getting that much fulfillment from the local hipster brunch place, and that their parents at this point in their life had a 4 bedroom house, a yard, kids, two vehicles and no student debt.  Maybe that millennial then says "screw this" and moves back.

We are seeing some "interior" areas growing, and quickly... the Nashville MSA has one of the hottest growth rates in the country.  The Denver MSA obviously has been one of the fastest growing areas in the last 20 years, which is a big reason why CO has moved farther into the D category.  But even outside the usual suspects: OKC, surprisingly, is hitting almost 10% growth.  Des Moines is over 10%, and who would've guessed that?  Places like Indianapolis and Columbus are actually outpacing MSAs like NY, LA, and Boston.

Even IF (this is still a big "if" in my mind) there is a re-suburbanization trend and/or re-migration trend away from the coasts, then that begs the question of whether these millennials will bring their politics with them, or whether they will change/shift in political views as they age and life priorities change.  

And still, none of this could happen as well.  Birth rates are falling- slowly, but still quite noticeably since the early 2000s.  I think it's also plausible that millennials simply aren't as interested in family formation, which would tend to negate any of the trends I discuss above.  In which case, the millennials may stay geographically concentrated for years to come, and in my opinion, the EC would then tend to neutralize the advantage Dems would have in party identification.

[Nyvin]

The GOP will soon be finished !

Omg, that cartoon is hilarious for some reason, lol!

Thanks for putting a smile on my face right before work starts

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

You can dismiss me all you want, but you aren't entitled to your own facts.

Fact is that millennials will only have their voice represented in politics if they choose to get active in the Party apparatus and electoral process. Yelling about how unfair the Democratic Party is to young people all is over the Internet doesn't change that fact.

Plenty of millennials have gotten involved. They get no support from the party geriatrics. A young lady in NJ even switched parties to run solely for that reason.

Have they though? I remember Biden's speech at his Harvard commencement address pointed out that after Trump was elected that the number of Harvard students interested in going into public service declined significantly.

It seems like the only enthusiasm thus far from millennials getting active have been from the conservative front these last 8 years (Democratic President) as a result of midterms lashing out against the Party in the White House.

Bull sh**t. There have been plenty of millennials around to be campus SJW. Some of that energy could have been channeled into politics by a more competent party.

SJWism manifests itself most in online slaktivism and shutting down speakers who come to their colleges.

That's the perception of SJWs, but is that the reality? Because at my university, you actually have students who fight for "real" issues like contract worker + grad student unionization, divestment of fossil fuels, etc. It's not just slactivism. For them, at least.

But these students are a minority. The majority of students aren't active in politics simply because they have school + work on their plates. Which is interesting to think about - could the worse economic situation of millenials depress voter turnout and political activism, neutering the Dem advantage?

[Virginiá]

Because if the answer is "no," and most millennials live in large urban areas in half a dozen states, then it may become somewhat irrelevant how much of a edge Dems have in party identification among millennials.  Now, of course, the census and redistricting should correct for this over time, but it will still lag behind population trends and there will still be enough Boomers across the nation, at least for the next decade or two.  By the time that generation is finally all "gone," the post-millennial generation will have started voting as well, such that it's possible that the electoral college never really reflects the millennials' voting power.  In that case, I would imagine more elections like 2016 will happen, with a PV/EV disparity.

Well obviously their distribution issue is not that bad. You can look at any exit poll of any state and see the percentage of voters ages 18 - 29 and 30 - 39, which accounts for mostly Millennials and a small sliver of genx at the end. I don't think the problem is nearly as bad as people say, and that it's mostly Millennials being the youngest adult-aged generation right now, which means they simply do not vote as much and 99% likely won't until a substantial amount are coming up on middle age or past it. This is part of the reason why a number of us believe America is destined for a big political shift in 2024 or so. At that point, based on current voting patterns and assuming genz is still leaning Democratic, the entire 18 - 50 age groups will be substantially Democratic leaning and Republicans will have lost a large chunk of their most reliable voters due to old age.

However, this is why I wish we could have exit polls by Congressional district. Of course it would be a big undertaking but it would provide so much useful data. Unfortunately we'll probably never see anything like that.

Even IF (this is still a big "if" in my mind) there is a re-suburbanization trend and/or re-migration trend away from the coasts, then that begs the question of whether these millennials will bring their politics with them, or whether they will change/shift in political views as they age and life priorities change.  

Once more and more Millennials begin to settle down, have families and grow older, they will spread out more. I believe there are already signs of this happening, and I think in one of these threads TT linked back to a thread I posted on it. I would wager that this is fairly typical of generations as they mature. Right now, most Millennials are still either in college or enjoying their youth, and marriage/kids aren't happening as fast as they did with, say, Boomers, but it'll all fall into place eventually.

[All Along The Watchtower]

This is part of the reason why a number of us believe America is destined for a big political shift in 2024 or so.

Very dangerous word to use in politics (and in general).

And one could just as easily argue that, since so many working-age Millennials are poor, deeply in debt (yay college loans), and/or not white, and that their coming-of-age in American politics has left them a lot of reason to be jaded, cynical, apathetic, with an eye-rolling attitude toward civic life (that is, what's left of civic life) and a commonly held belief that their voices aren't heard and will likely never be heard...then it's quite plausible that voting rates and civic participation will not significantly improve among this generation (to say nothing of those growing up after the Millennials).

I'm not saying you're wrong by any means, but the trends in regard to political and broader civic participation for this generation (my generation, for what it's worth) do not look encouraging. Though of course, they are only continuing a trend that started well before them.

[Sumner 1868]

Democrats need to stop assuming that they can lose every generation but Millennials and still win anyway because Projected Demographics Change Everything will save them. The Silents are ridiculously Republican and will still be of tremendous help to the GOP for another decade at least. Boomers and Xers, however, are more swingy, so I don't see why Democrats don't even pretend to care about their votes. I guess they think milking the generational card is worth it because it distracts from the lack of agenda.