I'm bumming

[Whacker77]

There's no there way to put it, I'm bumming today.  I didn't mind Zogby so much because I don't trust him.  TIPP caught me by surprise though.  Had it not been for Battleground, there's no telling what kind of mood I might be in at this time.

To be honest, I don't buy this kind of volatility.  I know we're getting towards the end, but this is crazy.  At the same time Bush collapsed in TIPP, he's moved up in ABC/WaPo.  He's also been very consistent in Battleground.

As I've said many times, I put a lot of faith in Battleground.  They let me down in 2000, but so did all of the other polls.  Kerry has made little progress in their poll and with the exception of a four blips in ABC, that poll has been consistent also.

Still, it's a bad day for this Bush fan.  I was on cloud nine after I read Kar Rove's comments in ABC's "The Note".

[Sam Spade]

A good Bush sample left TIPP.  Don't be bummed by every little tracking poll movement that occurs.  It's pointless.

[A18]

What did Rove say?

[Giant Saguaro]

Too much blipping and deblipping to go by these tracking polls completely.

RR sees three possible outcomes, btw: Bush wins comfortably, narrowly, or Kerry wins like Bush did in 2000 with OH being his FL.

Still 50-48 over there or 49-47. Tipp has had too abrupt a change. It hasn't changed that much, although beware that the media will lob everything they have to try and tilt this thing to Kerry between now and Monday.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The TIPP poll is extremely volatile due to its small sample, and probably can't be trust alone.  But there has been modest movement toward Kerry in the past week in all of the tracking polls...it's not just today.