Strategic Vision Returns (ugh)
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Lunar
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« on: March 15, 2010, 08:05:14 PM »

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/34433.html

The polling firm Strategic Vision is out with its first public poll since facing a barrage of allegations last September that it had extensively falsified data in its political surveys.

In a just-released poll of the Georgia governor's race, the firm shows former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes and Republican state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine leading for their respective parties' nominations. It also shows Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue with a solid, 50-percent approval rating – a finding at odds with a recent Public Policy Polling survey that had Perdue's approval number at just 29 percent.

Despite Strategic Vision's reputation, Perdue spokesman Chris Schrimpf emailed the poll to POLITICO in order to push back on the grim numbers in PPP's survey. A local Fox affiliate in Georgia also picked up the results.

The polling company drew a sharp rebuke last year from the American Association for Public Opinion Research, a trade group for pollsters, which rebuked Strategic Vision for refusing to provide methodological information about its polling on the 2008 presidential election. The firm later took a beating from 538.com publisher Nate Silver, who wrote on his popular website that there was a "substantial possibility" that the pollster's data were forged.

It was also reported that the addresses listed at the time for Strategic Vision's offices matched the locations of UPS stores, rather than genuine offices, raising further questions about the pollster's authenticity.

Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson told POLITICO that the lull in his firm's work had represented a deliberate choice to take some time off in the light of the allegations and let the scrutiny subside. He also said a family illness prevented him from polling the Georgia gubernatorial race earlier in the year.

"Some of the stuff was getting to me. I felt it was best to take some time off," Johnson said. "You know the old adage – lawyers should never defend themselves. I should never try to be my own PR person."

After facing questions about his methodology, Johnson threatened to sue both the trade association and Silver, but never followed through on the charges.

Contacted Monday, Silver said he was unimpressed by Strategic Vision's steps back into the open.

"Until Strategic Vision is willing to reveal even the most basic facts about their polling operation — including information as fundamental as where their calling center is — the presumption should be overwhelmingly that their polling is fraudulent and any newspaper or website editor who lists one of their polls should be fired for gross incompetence," Silver told POLITICO.

Johnson said that for its most recent poll, the firm interviewed 800 likely voters in Georgia by phone between March 5-8 by telephone, with a 3.5-percent margin of error.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0310/34433.html#ixzz0iIUHjwUD
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2010, 08:47:31 PM »

Anyone can put out a poll and there will be news agencies that take it seriously. There are seemingly really no background checks from most news organizations when it comes to polling. It's truly mind boggling.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2010, 08:50:59 PM »

Anyone can put out a poll and there will be news agencies that take it seriously. There are seemingly really no background checks from most news organizations when it comes to polling. It's truly mind boggling.

It's only a matter of time before an intrepid journalist runs a Google search for Obama approval polls and finds a thread from this forum from like six months ago, asking the community if Obama is a FF or HP.

I guess that would still be more credible than Strategic Vision.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2010, 11:47:34 PM »

Alcon needs to get that fake polling company together.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2010, 12:20:10 AM »

Alcon needs to get that fake polling company together.

Nate Silver would catch him, even if no one else did.

Tongue

It's nice to hear that SV fired up the old random number generator again, though.  I missed them.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2010, 12:50:20 AM »

I didn't hear about that.  Was that before or after their site got hacked by the porn people?  (Does anybody else remember that?)
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2010, 11:23:26 AM »
« Edited: March 17, 2010, 01:38:08 PM by The Vorlon »

The great tragedy of polling done for media outlets is that the media outlet is, essentially, buying a story and they often WANT bad polling because it is better "news" - so "cheap and erratic" often trumps "consistent and accurate"

Showing a race the lurches wildly back and forth with candidate X leading today, and Candidate Y leading tomorrow is exciting.... (a.k.a "planet Zogby").... who needs reality when fiction sells so many more newspapers?

Back in the 90s I remember doing some polling for a local newspaper on a very hotly contested mayors race.  There were 3 main candidates, I did a tracking poll for the final month.  My results showed a slow steady decline of the 3rd place candidate as support gradually consolidated for the main challenger to the incumbent. - My final poll had the correct winner, by the exact same margin as the actual result, and I got all three candidates within 2%....  In short, I did my job pretty well....

Next election cycle they hired another firm because my polling was "dull" according to the newspaper's publisher....

I had mistakenly assumed they wanted accurate results in their polling as opposed to information that was, well, not "dull"....
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2010, 11:38:24 AM »

Even when reputable firms are used, the actual polls are often reported in seriously dubious ways; changes well within the margin of error have been used as headline stories in broadsheet newspapers in Britain for at least thirty years.
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