Adelbert Ames vs. Al Smith 1932

[Bo]

In this scenario, the stock market crash occurs in 1927 (rather than 1929), enabling Smith to narrowly defeat Hoover. The economy becomes much worse between 1929 and 1932, and unemployment is 15% in 1932 since Smith refused to implement large govt. spending (however, Smith did not raise tariffs). Due to an Act of God, the Republicans nominate 97-year old Adelbert Ames (who was a Civil War general, Governor of MS, and Senator from MS during Reconstruction). You pick the VPs. How would this election turn out? Discuss, with maps.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

[Bo]

So Smith would win in that kind of a landslide when the economy deteriorated under his watch?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

So Smith would win in that kind of a landslide when the economy deteriorated under his watch?

The economy wouldn't deteriorate. Since Smith wouldn't pursue massive interventionist policies like Hoover and FDR did, the economy would be back on track in time for 1932, just like the 1920 depression.

[Bo]

So Smith would win in that kind of a landslide when the economy deteriorated under his watch?

The economy wouldn't deteriorate. Since Smith wouldn't pursue massive interventionist policies like Hoover and FDR did, the economy would be back on track in time for 1932, just like the 1920 depression.

I explicitly siad unemployment is 15% in this scenario and that it deteriorates between 1929 and 1932. Please follow my instructions. No way Smith would win in that kind of landslide.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

So Smith would win in that kind of a landslide when the economy deteriorated under his watch?

The economy wouldn't deteriorate. Since Smith wouldn't pursue massive interventionist policies like Hoover and FDR did, the economy would be back on track in time for 1932, just like the 1920 depression.

I explicitly siad unemployment is 15% in this scenario and that it deteriorates between 1929 and 1932. Please follow my instructions. No way Smith would win in that kind of landslide, even though I admit that he probably will win against a 97-year old.

You explicitly said "Smith refused to implement large govt. spending".  So that's what I went with. The economy would be sound by 1932. Obviously the government statistics must have a high margin of error.

[Bo]

Anyone else want to give this a shot?

[Electric Feel]

[Bo]

No. Just no. What is your reasoning for this map, other than Ames's age (which he can compensate for by picking a good experienced VP)?

[Lincoln Republican]

It is difficult to imagine that the voters would elect a 97 year old as President, however, with unemployment at 15% and the economy becoming much worse in 1932, here's how it could have happened.

Ames picks rising Republican star Senator Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan for Vice President.  Presumably the voters, knowing Ames would not live too much longer, would believe that Vandenberg would make a capable President.

Smith of course goes again with Vice President Joseph Robinson.  

Ames/Vandenberg                  339
Smith/Robinson                      192

Another possibility for running mate for Ames would be the more experienced Senator Hiram Johnson of California, a Progressive Republican, 66 years old, who had been a U.S. Senator since 1915, whereas Vandenberg, age 48, had been a U.S. Senator only since 1928.

I believe that either Johnson or Vandenberg would be seen by the voters as capable of assuming the Presidency.

Something to keep in mind, however, voters do not normally vote thinking of who the Vice Presidential candidate is, but of who the Presidential candidate is.

In these circumstances though, with a very old Presidential nominee, with a capable Vice Presidential running mate who the voters believe would make a capable president, running against a President and Vice President under whom unemployment is very high and under whom the economy is deteriorting by the day, this may be the first Presidential election in history where the voters look at the running mate with this in mind.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Seems reasonable.

[Bo]

It is difficult to imagine that the voters would elect a 97 year old as President, however, with unemployment at 15% and the economy becoming much worse in 1932, here's how it could have happened.

Ames picks rising Republican star Senator Arthur Vandenberg of Michigan for Vice President.  Presumably the voters, knowing Ames would not live too much longer, would believe that Vandenberg would make a capable President.

Smith of course goes again with Vice President Joseph Robinson.  

Ames/Vandenberg                  339
Smith/Robinson                      192

Another possibility for running mate for Ames would be the more experienced Senator Hiram Johnson of California, a Progressive Republican, 66 years old, who had been a U.S. Senator since 1915, whereas Vandenberg, age 48, had been a U.S. Senator only since 1928.

I believe that either Johnson or Vandenberg would be seen by the voters as capable of assuming the Presidency.

I agree with this VP. If Ames picks a competent VP, he wins. If not, he loses.