Are we looking at a double dip recession?

[Mr.Phips]

I assume that growth should persist in 2010 as the rest of the stimulus is paid out and interest rates remain very low.  However, by the end of the year, the stimulus will have run out and the fed will likely raise rates.  Wouldnt this cause a double dip recession next year?

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I don't see two quarters of negative growth in the foreseeable future, but I'm not Kreskin, that's for sure.

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

I assume that growth should persist in 2010 as the rest of the stimulus is paid out and interest rates remain very low.  However, by the end of the year, the stimulus will have run out and the fed will likely raise rates.  Wouldnt this cause a double dip recession next year?

maybe, but the stimulus has already had its biggest impact and that came in the third qaurter. Obviously the reserve may decide to raise interest rates,but current monetary policy has probably had its maximum impact as well. A double-dip recession is possible,but it probably has more to do with the fact that because our economy is weak, it is more vurnalbe.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Probably.

Jobless Claims, Inflation Jump as Economy Wobbles

Published: Thursday, 18 Feb 2010 |  Reuters

The number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance unexpectedly surged last week, while producer prices increased sharply in January, raising potential hurdles for the economic recovery.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 31,000 to 473,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. That compared to market expectations for 430,000.

Another report from the department showed prices paid at the farm and factory gate rose a faster than expected 1.4 percent from December after a 0.4 percent gain in December, as higher gasoline prices and unusually cold temperatures helped boost energy costs.

"When you have PPI moving up and still no progress in the jobs situation, that doesn't bode well for continued improvement in equity prices," said Alan Lancz, president at Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio.

Last week was the survey week for the employment report for February, which is scheduled for release in early March.

[Bo]

If you define a recession as two or more straight months of job losses after two or more straight months of job gains, then possibly.

[Mr.Phips]

If you define a recession as two or more straight months of job losses after two or more straight months of job gains, then possibly.

I would define it as a decline in GDP after three, four, or five months of growth. 

[Mr.Phips]

If you define a recession as two or more straight months of job losses after two or more straight months of job gains, then possibly.

I would define at as a couple of quarters of declining GDP after around four quarters of growing GDP. 

[Bo]

If you define a recession as two or more straight months of job losses after two or more straight months of job gains, then possibly.

I would define at as a couple of quarters of declining GDP after around four quarters of growing GDP. 

I think GDP is overrated as a unit of measure of an economy's well-being. I think that the job creation rate and the unemployment rate are much better indicators.