VA-11 Question
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« on: January 31, 2010, 05:52:03 PM »
Could Tom Davis (the previous Republican Representative of this district) defeat Gerry Connolly if he decided to run for his old seat back in 2010? I think Davis is still fairly popular in his old CD and has a moderate reputation, and he could give Connolly a real race on his hands.

Thus, I'd say Yes.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2010, 06:01:07 PM »
Davis would probably run, but he has no interest in retaking the seat.  He resigned in 2008, and didn't wait to serve out his term; I doubt he'd want to come back now.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2010, 06:52:41 PM »
Quote from: Mideast Assemblyman Ben on January 31, 2010, 06:01:07 PM
Davis would probably run, but he has no interest in retaking the seat.  He resigned in 2008, and didn't wait to serve out his term; I doubt he'd want to come back now.

Yeah, this is right. Davis was pretty candid in 2008 about the GOP's problems, I don't think he's interested in coming back to politics.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2010, 02:18:42 PM »
Quote from: Mideast Assemblyman Ben on January 31, 2010, 06:01:07 PM
Davis would probably run, but he has no interest in retaking the seat.  He resigned in 2008, and didn't wait to serve out his term; I doubt he'd want to come back now.

You mean win, right?
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2010, 02:20:32 PM »
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on January 31, 2010, 06:52:41 PM
Quote from: Mideast Assemblyman Ben on January 31, 2010, 06:01:07 PM
Davis would probably run, but he has no interest in retaking the seat.  He resigned in 2008, and didn't wait to serve out his term; I doubt he'd want to come back now.

Yeah, this is right. Davis was pretty candid in 2008 about the GOP's problems, I don't think he's interested in coming back to politics.

How come he left Congress? He initially wanted to run for John Warner's Senate seat, but when the GOP didn't nominate him, he just suddenly left politics altogether.
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Meeker
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« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2010, 02:22:25 PM »
Quote from: Рошамбо on February 01, 2010, 02:20:32 PM
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on January 31, 2010, 06:52:41 PM
Quote from: Mideast Assemblyman Ben on January 31, 2010, 06:01:07 PM
Davis would probably run, but he has no interest in retaking the seat.  He resigned in 2008, and didn't wait to serve out his term; I doubt he'd want to come back now.

Yeah, this is right. Davis was pretty candid in 2008 about the GOP's problems, I don't think he's interested in coming back to politics.

How come he left Congress? He initially wanted to run for John Warner's Senate seat, but when the GOP didn't nominate him, he just suddenly left politics altogether.

Moderates stuck in a crazy, conservative and powerless minority have a tendency to find something better to do.
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Verily
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« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2010, 02:31:40 PM »
Quote from: Meeker on February 01, 2010, 02:22:25 PM
Quote from: Рошамбо on February 01, 2010, 02:20:32 PM
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on January 31, 2010, 06:52:41 PM
Quote from: Mideast Assemblyman Ben on January 31, 2010, 06:01:07 PM
Davis would probably run, but he has no interest in retaking the seat.  He resigned in 2008, and didn't wait to serve out his term; I doubt he'd want to come back now.

Yeah, this is right. Davis was pretty candid in 2008 about the GOP's problems, I don't think he's interested in coming back to politics.

How come he left Congress? He initially wanted to run for John Warner's Senate seat, but when the GOP didn't nominate him, he just suddenly left politics altogether.

Moderates stuck in a crazy, conservative and powerless minority have a tendency to find something better to do.

Also, his wife lost her seat in the Virginia Senate in 2007 (in a landslide, IIRC), which I think he saw as presaging his defeat in 2008 anyway. (Whether he would have been defeated or not is less clear.)
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2010, 02:54:51 PM »
Quote from: Verily on February 01, 2010, 02:31:40 PM
Quote from: Meeker on February 01, 2010, 02:22:25 PM
Quote from: Рошамбо on February 01, 2010, 02:20:32 PM
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on January 31, 2010, 06:52:41 PM
Quote from: Mideast Assemblyman Ben on January 31, 2010, 06:01:07 PM
Davis would probably run, but he has no interest in retaking the seat.  He resigned in 2008, and didn't wait to serve out his term; I doubt he'd want to come back now.

Yeah, this is right. Davis was pretty candid in 2008 about the GOP's problems, I don't think he's interested in coming back to politics.

How come he left Congress? He initially wanted to run for John Warner's Senate seat, but when the GOP didn't nominate him, he just suddenly left politics altogether.

Moderates stuck in a crazy, conservative and powerless minority have a tendency to find something better to do.

Also, his wife lost her seat in the Virginia Senate in 2007 (in a landslide, IIRC), which I think he saw as presaging his defeat in 2008 anyway. (Whether he would have been defeated or not is less clear.)

Oh, all right. I think that it was foolish of him to just retire/resign, though, as I think he was fairly popular in his district and probably had about a 50-50 chance (in my opinion) against Connolly or a greater chance against a weaker opponent.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2010, 09:13:20 PM »
Quote from: Verily on February 01, 2010, 02:31:40 PM
Also, his wife lost her seat in the Virginia Senate in 2007 (in a landslide, IIRC), which I think he saw as presaging his defeat in 2008 anyway. (Whether he would have been defeated or not is less clear.)

I think he probably would have survived, because I'm not sure he would have drawn a top tier challenger.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2010, 09:18:42 PM »
Quote from: Mideast Assemblyman Ben on February 01, 2010, 09:13:20 PM
Quote from: Verily on February 01, 2010, 02:31:40 PM
Also, his wife lost her seat in the Virginia Senate in 2007 (in a landslide, IIRC), which I think he saw as presaging his defeat in 2008 anyway. (Whether he would have been defeated or not is less clear.)

I think he probably would have survived, because I'm not sure he would have drawn a top tier challenger.

So you don't think Connolly would have run?
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2010, 09:27:58 PM »
Quote from: Рошамбо on February 01, 2010, 09:18:42 PM
So you don't think Connolly would have run?

I personally don't think so, but I'm not an authority on VA-11.
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