When did the Great Recession (in the United States) End?
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Question: When did the Great Recession (in the United States) end?
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June 2009		  
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July 2009		  
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August 2009		  
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Author Topic: When did the Great Recession (in the United States) End?  (Read 3773 times)
Frodo
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« on: September 24, 2009, 10:09:08 PM »
« edited: September 24, 2009, 10:11:09 PM by Nine-Fingered Frodo »
It seems the CW here is that the recession which began in December 2007 has (technically) ended -at least here in the United States, and that the economy is once again growing (anemically).  The National Bureau of Economic Research will ultimately make an announcement sometime within the next few months on when it actually ended.  Based on what you know, what month do you think they will pick as the ending point of this recession?
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2009, 10:12:59 PM »
The CW can easily be wrong yet again.
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dead0man
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2009, 11:56:45 PM »
History won't look good on us calling this the "Great Recession".  Hell, history is going to sh**t all over the several generations that are alive right now for a thousand other things, they might not even notice the hyperbole.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2009, 01:00:26 AM »

Shouldn't the correct question be:  Will the CW ever be right?
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phk
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2009, 04:03:21 AM »
NOTA
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opebo
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2009, 04:33:09 AM »

Still sliding, eh?  Well I guess a lot of people are thinking that right now after the bad numbers on Friday...
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Frodo
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2009, 06:15:37 PM »
Does no one else want to take a stab at this? 
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pogo stick
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2009, 07:41:25 PM »
It's not over yet.


If it was, then Obama wouldn't be trying to distract us with cookies and rainbows.
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jfern
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2009, 01:48:22 PM »
Answer: None of the above. You can't claim it ended when we lost another 263k jobs last month.
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opebo
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2009, 02:36:09 PM »
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 03, 2009, 01:48:22 PM
Answer: None of the above. You can't claim it ended when we lost another 263k jobs last month.

Well technically recessions are often declared over while jobs are still being lost.
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Frodo
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2009, 02:43:48 PM »
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 03, 2009, 01:48:22 PM
Answer: None of the above. You can't claim it ended when we lost another 263k jobs last month.

For an economics expert, you surprise me with your ignorance.  Don't you know that job growth is often a lagging indicator of an economic recovery?  This is basic stuff that I assumed you already knew... 
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phk
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2009, 02:48:04 PM »
Quote from: Nine-Fingered Frodo on October 03, 2009, 02:43:48 PM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 03, 2009, 01:48:22 PM
Answer: None of the above. You can't claim it ended when we lost another 263k jobs last month.

For an economics expert, you surprise me with your ignorance.  Don't you know that job growth is often a lagging indicator of an economic recovery?  This is basic stuff that I assumed you already knew... 

Jfern has mad math skills (which is the stuff that makes economics work), but when was he considered an economics expert?
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Frodo
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2009, 02:53:23 PM »
Quote from: phknrocket1k on October 03, 2009, 02:48:04 PM
Quote from: Nine-Fingered Frodo on October 03, 2009, 02:43:48 PM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 03, 2009, 01:48:22 PM
Answer: None of the above. You can't claim it ended when we lost another 263k jobs last month.

For an economics expert, you surprise me with your ignorance.  Don't you know that job growth is often a lagging indicator of an economic recovery?  This is basic stuff that I assumed you already knew... 

Jfern has mad math skills (which is the stuff that makes economics work), but when was he considered an economics expert?

Good point -I may have given him too much credit for knowledge he probably doesn't have... 
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jfern
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2009, 02:59:52 PM »
Quote from: Nine-Fingered Frodo on October 03, 2009, 02:43:48 PM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 03, 2009, 01:48:22 PM
Answer: None of the above. You can't claim it ended when we lost another 263k jobs last month.

For an economics expert, you surprise me with your ignorance.  Don't you know that job growth is often a lagging indicator of an economic recovery?  This is basic stuff that I assumed you already knew... 

The job numbers have to be better to have any sort of reasonable talk of a recovery. The job numbers for this decade in general, and this recession in particular have been terrible. 263k a month in losses are nowhere near the 150k in gains that would be needed to keep up with normal growth in the labor pool (if people weren't so discouraged).

I mean, sure a "recovery" would be nice for those fat cats on Wall Street, but what is really important are to have the number of jobs to increase (and have those be decent jobs).

Sadly the time to have the job numbers recover to what they were at the beginning of a recession (without the increases necessary to take into account population growth) has been lengthening.



and one with the this recession a month ago
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