A bunch of new state polls...

[Sam Spade]

From SurveyUSA:

Oregon:
Kerry 53, Bush 44

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OR041012president.pdf

Rhode Island:
Kerry 56, Bush 36

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/RI041012president.pdf

Texas:
Bush 60, Kerry 37

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/TX041012president.pdf

New York:
Kerry 58, Bush 35

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/TX041012president.pdf

Kansas:

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/KS041012president.pdf

From the Chicago Tribune: (I didn't know they did polls, I just hope they're not as bad as the Minneapolis Star-Tribune ones)

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/specials/elections/chi-041012poll-story,1,7513939.story?coll=chi-news-hed

Minnesota:
Kerry 45, Bush 43, Nader 2

Wisconsin:
Kerry 47, Bush 43, Nader 2

Iowa:
Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 1

Ohio:
Kerry 49, Bush 45

And now for the infamous Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll:

http://www.startribune.com/stories/784/5029409.html

Topline numbers:
Kerry 48, Bush 43

[Alcon]

Man, if I was a partisan hack, I'd consider the Chicago Tribune my new best friend.

In any case, Oregon is the only interesting poll here (I'm not sure I trust the Chicago Tribune polls), and it's a good one for Kerry.

[agcatter]

Just saw these.  Kerry up +4 in Ohio and Wisconsin?

I guess that means Kerry is up 4 or 5 nationally then.

[Rococo4]

Bush up in Iowa but down in Ohio and Wisconsin?  I dont think so.  Everyone else is showing the opposite.

[The Vorlon]

FWIW - The SUSA Oregon sample looks ok to me.

I have 2946 polls in my database from previous elections - None from the Chicago Tribune.

I have no idea about these guys one way or another.  Not enough data or detail to even guess ;(

[Alcon]

Bush up in Iowa but down in Ohio and Wisconsin?  I dont think so.  Everyone else is showing the opposite.

Untrue. In the last 15 days, we have seen polls out of Ohio with Kerry ahead and with ties. I consider it a total toss-up, with slight benefit to Bush.

[Sam Spade]

Actually the Minnesota Red-Star Tribune is a good sign for Bush.  This poll has a sampling method for Minnesota that was created in the 1970s and hasn't been changed since.

Typically, you can push this poll about 6-7 points towards the Republican and its the result for Minnesota.

[Alcon]

Actually the Minnesota Red-Star Tribune is a good sign for Bush.  This poll has a sampling method for Minnesota that was created in the 1970s and hasn't been changed since.

Typically, you can push this poll about 6-7 points towards the Republican and its the result for Minnesota.

Although this is true, I don't feel that it is right to make predictions based on this. I'd rather wait for a confirmation poll that isn't the Minnesota Red-Star Tribune poll instead.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

If the polls are good...w00t. 

If they're BS polls.....m00t. 

[The Vorlon]

Actually the Minnesota Red-Star Tribune is a good sign for Bush.  This poll has a sampling method for Minnesota that was created in the 1970s and hasn't been changed since.

Typically, you can push this poll about 6-7 points towards the Republican and its the result for Minnesota.

Although this is true, I don't feel that it is right to make predictions based on this. I'd rather wait for a confirmation poll that isn't the Minnesota Red-Star Tribune poll instead.

You know a poll is just total trash (as this one is) when NOBODY thinks the poll is right, and the debate is over if you should adjust the result by it's typical 10% Dem bias, or utterly ignore it.

LOL !

[Alcon]

Actually the Minnesota Red-Star Tribune is a good sign for Bush.  This poll has a sampling method for Minnesota that was created in the 1970s and hasn't been changed since.

Typically, you can push this poll about 6-7 points towards the Republican and its the result for Minnesota.

Although this is true, I don't feel that it is right to make predictions based on this. I'd rather wait for a confirmation poll that isn't the Minnesota Red-Star Tribune poll instead.

You know a poll is just total trash (as this one is) when NOBODY thinks the poll is right, and the debate is over if you should adjust the result by it's typical 10% Dem bias, or utterly ignore it.

LOL !

Makes you wonder why they waste money on it.

[Horus]

Ohio poll could be right on target, living here I think it really really could be.

The Wisconsin poll is just wishful thinking, I doubt we will win that state again. Iowa surprises me. I think it is truly a dead heat in Iowa, Bush is up about 3 in Wisconsin and Kerry is up about 2 here in Ohio.

[MODU]

Makes you wonder why they waste money on it.

In order to sell papers.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I wonder who is paying SurveyUSA to poll these useless states...they don't even have Senate or Gov races.

[ATFFL]

I wonder who is paying SurveyUSA to poll these useless states...they don't even have Senate or Gov races.

Local media.  Survey USA Homepage

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So what is so infamous about the Minneapolis Star-Tribune?

[Sam Spade]

It is always wrong in the Dems favor by a lot.

Their sampling method was created in 1970s, when Minnesota was quite different than it is today, and they haven't changed it since.

They've missed nearly every state race for the last 10 years.

[iosip]

bush is winning texas?

say it isn't so!

[CARLHAYDEN]

As I posted about six weeks ago, SUSA has a long history of overstating the Democrat support in its polls.

To its credit, SUSA provides its demographics on its polls where one can see them.

Of the group of SUSA polls posted on this thread, the most defective one is the Oregon poll.

If you believe SUSA's Oregon poll, you believe:

1.) Kerry wins the White vote by 7%.

2.) A higher percentage of Democrats supports Kerry than Republicans support Bush.

3.) A higher percentage of Republicans support Kerry than Democrats support Bush.

4.) Kerry wins the Military/Vet vote by 7%.

Also, please remember the impact of two key ballot measures on the Oregon ballot. 

Both the Marriage amendment and the Medical Malpractice measures are likely to pass.

Most supporters of both of these measures favor Bush, and most opponents of both of these measures support Kerry.

Post Script - Pat Caddell agrees with me that the marriage measure is critical in this year's election.

[khirkhib]

Carl at this point I really am not that surprised by 7% of whites supporting Kerry.  Remember Oregon is not a very racially diverse state, 86.6% white as of the 2000 survey. (17th whitest state in the nation.    If Oregonians voted solely as a matter of race than the state might be more like Idaho.  Oregon also, I believe, has had the highest mortality rate per Capita in the war in Iraq, that may affect the military vote.

And just because I was checking the top 16 whitest states in the country are
1. Maine
2. Vermont
3. New Hampshire
4. West Virginia
5. Iowa
6. North Dakota
7. Wyoming
8. Idaho
9. Montana
10. Kentucky
11. Nebraska
12. Minnesota
13. Utah
14. Wisconsin
15. South Dakota
16. Indiana

[Gustaf]

People are forgetting MoE...the difference between Bush +2 in one state or Kerry +2 in another is well within MoE. Seems like Kerry is bouncing back a little and is now at least close to tied in the Battlegrounds.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Carl at this point I really am not that surprised by 7% of whites supporting Kerry.  Remember Oregon is not a very racially diverse state, 86.6% white as of the 2000 survey. (17th whitest state in the nation.    If Oregonians voted solely as a matter of race than the state might be more like Idaho.  Oregon also, I believe, has had the highest mortality rate per Capita in the war in Iraq, that may affect the military vote.

And just because I was checking the top 16 whitest states in the country are
1. Maine
2. Vermont
3. New Hampshire
4. West Virginia
5. Iowa
6. North Dakota
7. Wyoming
8. Idaho
9. Montana
10. Kentucky
11. Nebraska
12. Minnesota
13. Utah
14. Wisconsin
15. South Dakota
16. Indiana

But you forget in the few states where liberal democrats have done well, there is a skewing of the ethnicity among whites.

Maine has a "french" ethnicity several times that of the nation as a whole.

Minnesota and Wisconsin have a large scandanavian vote in their component (which has been heavily Democrat for the last seventy plus
years).

These factors do NOT impact Oregon.

[freewayticket]

The Minneapolis Star Tribune which has been nicknamed the "Red Star" by many is in my view a junk poll. It is so biased towards the Democrats it isn't funny. This is the same paper who said four years in 2000 just 2 days before the election that Gore was ahead in Minnesota by 10 points and that it wouldn't be close. Gore only won the race by 2.4 points in Minnesota. Even Democrats on election night called the poll results wrong. This is the same paper who said 2 years ago...again a few days before election (ironic on the timing of the poll) that Coleman was trailing Mondale by something like 6-7 points in the 2002 Senate Race. Ask Senator Mondale how reliable the poll is. This is the same paper that said Jesse Ventura had no chance of winning the governorship. They never saw it coming. Ventura ended up winning while their buddy Skip Humphrey came in a distant third. I sometimes think they put this poll out close to the election to somehow effect the outcome though I have no proof of it. Disregard the Star Tribune's poll because it is nothing more then a junk poll.