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[Bull Moose Base]

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[pbrower2a]

Chances of GOP pickups, 2012

1. Indiana             60%
2. NE-02                60%
3. North Carolina  40%
4. Florida              35%
5. Ohio                 35%
6. Virginia             25%
7. Colorado          25%
8. Nevada            20%
9. Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania -- tied at 10%

Chances of Obama pickups in 2012:

1. Missouri             60%
2. Arizona              40%
3. Montana            35%
4. Georgia              30%
5. both Dakotas     20%
7. NE-01                 15%
8. Texas                 15%
9. Kentucky, South  Carolina          10%           

         

[You kip if you want to...]

From most likely, to least likely. I'll leave the ones which won't flip no matter what out:

Indiana
NE-02
Missouri
North Carolina
Florida
Ohio
Arizona
Georgia
Montana
Virginia
Nevada
Colorado
North Dakota
South Dakota (Obama's ceiling state)
South Carolina
Iowa (GOP Nominee's ceiling)
NE-01
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Texas
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
Maine
New Jersey
Nebraska At-Large (Only if NE-01 and 02 are won convincingly, already signaling a landslide of massive proportions)