Lockerbie release could topple SNP government

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article6807289.ece

Getting serious.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sunday Paper story. Not actually implausible for once, but the sort of thing that it's best only to believe when it actually happens.

[Verily]

Dubious. The Scottish Greens are backing up the SNP, which the article doesn't mention. And, though Tavish Scott sounds aggressive there, the LDs have not signed on to the Labour-Tory attempt to force out the Justice Secretary. Plus, I doubt the whole Tory caucus would be willing to topple the government; at least a few have strong SNP sympathies and would not want to see a new Labour government.

The SNP just needs the Greens and either the Tories or LDs (or a mix of some of each) to survive.

[Dan the Roman]

Dubious. The Scottish Greens are backing up the SNP, which the article doesn't mention. And, though Tavish Scott sounds aggressive there, the LDs have not signed on to the Labour-Tory attempt to force out the Justice Secretary. Plus, I doubt the whole Tory caucus would be willing to topple the government; at least a few have strong SNP sympathies and would not want to see a new Labour government.

The SNP just needs the Greens and either the Tories or LDs (or a mix of some of each) to survive.

At least from living in Scotland, my impression is that the Tories are the most militantly anti-SNP group around. At the local level they are willing to support any coalition that keeps the SNP out and would likely support a Lab-LD government as they do in Dundee and Edinburgh. They would also stand to make gains(albeit) minor in the event of an election. Labour is more bizarre. They would get killed at an election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Tories have IIRC been co-operating with the SNP on certain votes every so often, with the other big opposition parties being more hostile. Mind you, there's also a certain logic in them wanting an election before the next Westminster one, for reasons too obvious to bother spelling out.

Still, it makes no sense for either Labour or the LibDems to try this for real, unless they've an alternative government lined up. They'd both do better in a 2011 election than a 2009 one (though for different reasons).

[Verily]

Dubious. The Scottish Greens are backing up the SNP, which the article doesn't mention. And, though Tavish Scott sounds aggressive there, the LDs have not signed on to the Labour-Tory attempt to force out the Justice Secretary. Plus, I doubt the whole Tory caucus would be willing to topple the government; at least a few have strong SNP sympathies and would not want to see a new Labour government.

The SNP just needs the Greens and either the Tories or LDs (or a mix of some of each) to survive.

At least from living in Scotland, my impression is that the Tories are the most militantly anti-SNP group around. At the local level they are willing to support any coalition that keeps the SNP out and would likely support a Lab-LD government as they do in Dundee and Edinburgh. They would also stand to make gains(albeit) minor in the event of an election. Labour is more bizarre. They would get killed at an election.

As Al said, things are weird with the Scottish Tories. Things have probably also changed a lot since you've been there; the Tories have settled on the idea that the SNP is a good thing because it's in opposition to Labour, and they have been cooperating more with the SNP than either the LDs or Labour have. Obviously there are some hardcore unionist Tories out there as well, and they do form anti-Nat coalitions in some areas as you mentioned. But the anti-SNP feelings are more among the Scottish Tory voters than the politicians, and more among the councillors than among the MSPs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone think about how sheer boneheaded of a decision this was by the SNP? There is NOTHING whatsoever that can benefit them from it. Even if the UK government wanted some sort of deal for freeing him for oil contracts it wouldn't look good for the SNP to bow to them. Really, it defies comprehension even more than Labour trying to force a new election.

[k-onmmunist]

Well, it would be nice if that could happen, but unfortunately, it probably won't.