Dukakis/Gephardt vs. Dole/Deukmejian vs. Perot/Kemp (1992)

[Historico]

Ok let's say that the Duke wins in 1988

The Duke Wins

Michael S. Dukakis/Lloyd M. Bentsen:  272 Electoral Votes
George H.W. Bush/Dan Quayle: 266 Electoral Votes

1988: Mike Dukakis wins the 1988 General Election against Vice President George H.W. Bush. There is no "snoopy" Tank disaster, and no Kitty Dukakis rape debate question. However, Dukakis being Dukakis only wins an ridcuously narrow victory. Dukakis actually has a fairly successful first term, as he was able to get a majority of his Domestic Legislation passed with a Democratic Congress, A Swift end to the Persian Gulf Conflict, and he provided a major economic stimulus package to help lift the nation out of the 1991-1992 Recession.

What does an electoral map look like, if the GOP nominate Senator Bob Dole of Kansas and George Deukmejian of California for the 1992 Ticket? Does the Duke win reelection? Might Perot win a handful of electoral votes?

[Lincoln Republican]

You have loaded this scenario heavily in fovor of Dukakis.

Domestic legislation passed = Success on the homefront
Swift end to Persian Gulf conflict = Success in foreign affairs
Major economic stimulus package that lifts the nation out of recession = Successful action to revive the struggling economy

Why would the nation defeat a successful first term President with this record?  I doubt they would.

Perot absolutely does not receive any electoral votes. 

[rebeltarian]

Let's make this a little more interesting:

-Dukakis' liberal fiscal policies worsen the economy.  Dukakis' work packages control unemployement, but inflation skyrockets nearly back to Carter-era levels while profits and production stagnate.  Combined with Reagan's heavy defense spending in the 80s, the Dukakis stimulus raises the national debt to catastrophic levels. 

-Dukakis responds to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait the same way Bush did.  America approves of his policies, no change here.

-Bob Dole runs a negative campaign attacking Dukakis on everything from the deficit to his support for gun-control.  Disenchanted with the negative Dole campaign and a tepid President Dukakis, many Americans stay home or defect to the independent Ross Perot.  Perot does not drop out of the race.


And the outcome...

In a wild, three-way race, Ross Perot manages to squeeze out ahead of the pack winning in the rural new england, midwestern and western states and adding key victories in Florida and California.  The President holds the industrial northeast, splits the midwest and manages to hold NM, WA and HI.  Bob Dole dominates the south, picks up CT, holds UT and manages to take a share of the midwest including a bitter fight to hold off Perot in his home KS.
Perot 194
Dole 187
Dukakis 157