Montana

[HAnnA MArin County]

So, what's going on in Montana lately? It used to be a GOP bastion but Democrats have been doing increasingly well in this state in recent election cycles - Brian Schweitzer as Governor, Jon Tester as U.S. Senator, and Obama only lost the state to McCain by less than 2.5 points. All statewide executive offices are held by Democrats (with the exception of Lt. Governor Brian Bohlinger) and the state legislature even seems pretty close.

What makes Montana so different from many of its more staunchly GOP neighbors like Idaho and Wyoming and lesser but still strongly Republican states like the Dakotas? It obviously isn't a regional thing because of these reasons, so what else can account for the recent Democratic upsurge in the state? It's a predominantly rural state with less than 1 million people statewide and doesn't really have many major urban areas save for perhaps Billings or any real college towns except for maybe Missoula, and I don't think there are that many latte liberals in Montana to account for the state's recent transition from red to purple state.

[pogo stick]

I think Bill Clinton crushed the "GOP Stronghold" label off Montana.

Montana will become democratic

[Hash]

What makes Montana so different from many of its more staunchly GOP neighbors like Idaho and Wyoming and lesser but still strongly Republican states like the Dakotas? It obviously isn't a regional thing because of these reasons, so what else can account for the recent Democratic upsurge in the state? It's a predominantly rural state with less than 1 million people statewide and doesn't really have many major urban areas save for perhaps Billings or any real college towns except for maybe Missoula, and I don't think there are that many latte liberals in Montana to account for the state's recent transition from red to purple state.

Old people and liberals moving to ski resorts/areas in western Montana. Plus you still have a solid Native American vote for the Democrats adding on to that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, that's strange... I think it's just a state that used to be less ridiculously republican than the rest of the Nothwest during the 80-90's, and when the west began to trend more and more democratic it rapidly became a close state...

[Rob]

* Many more Native Americans and many fewer Mormons than in Idaho
* It has a healthy union tradition which hasn't totally vanished (it's pretty striking to see Butte-Anaconda vote McGovern, Carter, Mondale, and all other Dems)
* Montana's cities are relatively small, but southern-tinged conservatism seems to be unpopular there

Old people and liberals moving to ski resorts/areas in western Montana.

This may be a bit of it, but touristy towns like Kalispell actually vote solidly GOP.

[Verily]

Old people and liberals moving to ski resorts/areas in western Montana.

This may be a bit of it, but touristy towns like Kalispell actually vote solidly GOP.

There's no skiing at Glacier Nat'l. Park

He's referring to Missoula and environs in particular. That's where most of the recent transplants live. Helena and Great Falls are increasingly settled by transplants, too, and Bozeman (home of Montana State) gets a lot of students. (Also, without the Mormon and evangelical traditions of a lot of neighboring states, youth are quite Democratic even locally).

Anyway, Montana has the Native population of the Dakotas but the West Coast transplant population of Idaho or Utah, plus no Mormons, which combines to make it considerably less GOP than the surrounding states. An accident of geography, really. The survival of mining union traditions around Butte helps, too; the tradition of miners voting Democratic died out elsewhere in the West but survived in that little pocket.

[Alcon]

A resort town in Montana would be more like Whitefish, which is Democratic -- but the resort population in MT is actually not at all that big.  It's Western influx.  Your same basic pattern as Teton County, Idaho, although much less extreme.  It's not that there's a huge service industry (resort towns), but rather that the population is increasingly transplanted.

Obama was also a very strong candidate for native urban Montanans (native as in non-transplant, not Indians).  This was also an area where Obama was a much better working-class candidate than Kerry (and McCain was worse than Bush.)  Montana has a cultural attitude that does not perfectly fit its demographics.  Look at Silver Bow County (Butte), which is an ethnic Catholic former mining town, swung 22% to Obama(!).  He managed to get both the old Democratic demographics and the new ones.

Obama just did very well among nearly every demographic, except for conservative rural Democrats, a group he lagged with universally.  But his swings among urban voters, rural working-class voters, small-towners, Indians, college town students, etc., were all very impressive.  It may have been his best around-the-board performance outside of Indiana and Hawai'i.

I think the description "accident of geography" is also very fitting.  In part, it's a total coincidence of outline.  Except the easternmost part, MT is pretty much a perfect Democratic gerrymander for the area.

[Rob]

Obama just did very well among nearly every demographic, except for conservative rural Democrats, a group he lagged with universally.  But his swings among urban voters, rural working-class voters, small-towners, Indians, college town students, etc., were all very impressive.

He even made big improvements in most of the core Republican rural areas, taking 15 percent in Carter and Garfield Counties (which, respectively, gave 8 percent to Gore and 8 percent to Kerry). It would have been difficult to run worse, but still.

As an aside, I'm "worried" that we'll see yet another anti-environmental backlash sweep the rural West come 2012. Just when we were getting back to non-joke levels of support there.

Look at Silver Bow County (Butte), which is an ethnic Catholic former mining town, swung 22% to Obama(!).

Even more impressive considering he lost Butte-Anaconda to Hillary in the primary. The depressed mining area of Mineral County also recorded a massive Obama swing, second only to Big Horn's as you know. (The last few decades there have not been pretty for national Democrats- McGovern won 46% there, Gore got 23%)

[Person Man]

An even more interesting question is if there is a state that is similiar to Montana. New Hampshire and Colorado come to mind...but Montana is less advanced or urbanized than even those states. I am guessing its the most sophisticated hick state in the country, like Reno is the biggest little city in the world.

[bgwah]

Missoula has been a liberal town for a while. The University of Montana is pretty left-wing considering the location. (Nader won all four university precincts there in 2000).

You have some uniony-working class white areas like Butte/Anaconda. In a way they used to vote like those uber-Democratic counties in Appalachia, but McCain actually fell in the 20s last year while the Appalachian counterparts trended Republican big time. Perhaps the gigantic pit of waste has left people in the areas a bit more... environmentally-conscious then they would be otherwise. They of course would also lack the historic black-white tension that would be present in the Outer South. Still, Obama's improvements in this Irish Catholic mining enclave over Kerry are perplexing.

And of course, as stated, larger Native American population and smaller Mormon population helps. But personally I think some here are overstating the "latte liberal/ski resort invasion" aspect... Montana doesn't really have anything like Blaine, ID or Teton, WY. While there isn't one giant city there, Montana seems to have a fair number of mid-sized cities that have remained friendly to Democrats and can tip the scale in their favor.

[pbrower2a]

So, what's going on in Montana lately? It used to be a GOP bastion but Democrats have been doing increasingly well in this state in recent election cycles - Brian Schweitzer as Governor, Jon Tester as U.S. Senator, and Obama only lost the state to McCain by less than 2.5 points. All statewide executive offices are held by Democrats (with the exception of Lt. Governor Brian Bohlinger) and the state legislature even seems pretty close.

What makes Montana so different from many of its more staunchly GOP neighbors like Idaho and Wyoming and lesser but still strongly Republican states like the Dakotas? It obviously isn't a regional thing because of these reasons, so what else can account for the recent Democratic upsurge in the state? It's a predominantly rural state with less than 1 million people statewide and doesn't really have many major urban areas save for perhaps Billings or any real college towns except for maybe Missoula, and I don't think there are that many latte liberals in Montana to account for the state's recent transition from red to purple state.

Maybe the small cities are more cosmopolitan than cities of similar size in neighboring states. What passes for cities in Montana are mining towns and college towns. Montana is probably less decidedly rural than North Dakota or South Dakota, and much less dependent on the energy industry than Wyoming.

[Person Man]

So, what's going on in Montana lately? It used to be a GOP bastion but Democrats have been doing increasingly well in this state in recent election cycles - Brian Schweitzer as Governor, Jon Tester as U.S. Senator, and Obama only lost the state to McCain by less than 2.5 points. All statewide executive offices are held by Democrats (with the exception of Lt. Governor Brian Bohlinger) and the state legislature even seems pretty close.

What makes Montana so different from many of its more staunchly GOP neighbors like Idaho and Wyoming and lesser but still strongly Republican states like the Dakotas? It obviously isn't a regional thing because of these reasons, so what else can account for the recent Democratic upsurge in the state? It's a predominantly rural state with less than 1 million people statewide and doesn't really have many major urban areas save for perhaps Billings or any real college towns except for maybe Missoula, and I don't think there are that many latte liberals in Montana to account for the state's recent transition from red to purple state.

Maybe the small cities are more cosmopolitan than cities of similar size in neighboring states. What passes for cities in Montana are mining towns and college towns. Montana is probably less decidedly rural than North Dakota or South Dakota, and much less dependent on the energy industry than Wyoming.

Pretty much, the West is a lot like the Midwest, except that Wyoming has its energy cartel and its retainers and Utah and Idaho has their Mormon sepratists. That's probably too simplified though... come to think of it...Montana and the Dakotas are kinda between the Northwest and the Great Lakes...that probably doesn't mean that much, though....however, I think if a city like Fargo, Billings or Rapid City were much bigger, these states would probably vote a lot like Minnesota or Oregon. Then again, population density has only a limited correlation (or at least not limitless) with a desire for progressive politics. I mean, it seems that places like Jackson,
Sun Valley, Missoula and Helena are really like tiny cities and places like Colorado Springs, Boise and Provo are really just really, really big towns. To make a long story short, there are plenty of reasons why Montana is what it is, but it is a pretty unique place. It's like Wyoming was thrown up on by Washington or Oregon...or the inbred step-child of New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada.

[minionofmidas]

Higher Native turnout than in the Dakotas, too. I'm not sure why, but it goes a while back.

[DS0816]

State closest to Montana in voting pattern in presidential elections is Colorado. Since the first post-World War II election. So essentially, it's whatever is going in one state is doing likewise in another. I don't mean with every respect—but, rather, in making decisions as to which direction to go when choosing between the parties: a little more Republican, a little less Republican, a little more Democratic, a little less Democratic, et al.

[President Mitt]

Here's my theory:
I think there is a small voting bloc, who really, really hates authority, basically hating the establishment, whatever the establishment is. But since youve probably already tossed out my idea, lets provide some facts:
1980: Dems in Control, Montana trends Rep.
1984: Reps in Control, Montana trends Dem.
1988: Reps still in Control, Montana trends Dem.
1992: Reps STILL in Control, Montana trends Dem.
1996: Dems in Control, Montana trends Rep.
2000: Dems in Control, Montana trends Rep.
2004: Reps in Control, Montana trends Dem.
2008: Reps in Control, Montana trends Dem.
2012: Dems in Control, Montana will trend Rep.

Barring some unforseen change, Montana will trend Republican, and keep switching.