Limited resources. Gore very likely couldn't attempt FL and stay in OH and PA. The point is, when the dust settled, Gore lost FL.
You hit FL for two reasons:
1. Win it.
2. Draw resources from other states.
Number 2 isn't possible because of Bush's lead in the mid-west.
Approximately 7.1 million are going to vote in FL this time. 5.6 million of them are veteran voters and 1.5 are new or new-in-Florida. It is safe to say that the 5.6 veterans will vote like in 2000 i.e. evenly splitted between Kerry and Bush. The 1.5 M new voters are 1.5 M enigmas. Who are they? Are they properly and proportionally being polled? My feeling ( I admit…) is that the demographics and the sociological makeup of these new voters make them more Kerry-leaning.
As pointed out, those new voters show up in the polling. The lists are public.
I'm far from convinced that Gore could have won OH, but he didn't win FL. The current numbers in FL are not going Kerry's way. There are two resources that are not money, time and staff. Those are both limited. It becomes a question of where to put those.
The question comes down to where is it more likely for Kerry's resources to be spent that will move EV's, and will give him enough to brake 269. The answer is
not FL.
