Is there a large reshuffling of HOR members after reapportionment?

[Jacobtm]

Once the 2010 census is taken care of, and new house seats are apportioned and carved up, is there usually a particularly large number of House members losing their seats, or does incumbancy translate across county lines?

[CARLHAYDEN]

First, we must distinguish between reapportionment and redistricting.

There will be several states that will gain House seats and several that will lose such seats.

Within states, lines for districts will be changed (except in states with only one Representative) to equalize populations.

Next, it is likely that in several states efforts will be made to gerrymander districts.

Second, what is your definition of "large"?

[HAnnA MArin County]

In terms of population, it doesn't look very good for Democrats going into the 2010 redistricting. According to 2008 population estimates, it looks as though the states that are experiencing the most population gains are red states with the exception of a few swing states. Here's a list of the states ranked by highest percentage of increases in each one along with their populations in 2000 and 2008 estimates. I used the traditional red-blue color scheme with red for states won by McCain and blue for Obama.

1) Nevada - 1,998,257                   2,600,167 (+30.12%)
2) Arizona - 5,130,632                   6,500,180 (+26.69%)
3) Utah - 2,233,169                                           2,736,424 (+22.54%)
4) Georgia - 8,186,453                                   9,685,744 (+18.31%)
5) Idaho - 1,293,953                                   1,523,816 (+17.76%)
6) Texas - 20,851,820                                   24,326,974 (+16.67%)
7) Colorado - 4,301,261           4,939,456 (+14.84%)
8. Florida - 15,982,378                                   18,328,340 (+14.68%)
9) North Carolina - 8,049,313                           9,222,414 (+14.57%)
10) South Carolina - 4,012,012   4,479,800 (+11.66%)
11) Delaware - 783,600           873,092 (+11.42%)
12) Washington - 5,894,121                           6,549,224 (+11.11%)
13) Oregon - 3,421,399                                   3,790,060 (+10.78%)
14) Virginia - 7,078,515                                   7,769,089 (+9.76%)
15) Alaska - 626,932                   686,293 (+9.47%)
16) Tennessee - 5,689,283                           6,214,888 (+9.24%)
17) New Mexico - 1,819,046           1,984,356 (+9.09%)
18) California - 33,871,648                           36,756,666 (+8.52%)
19) Wyoming - 493,782                   532,668 (+7.88%)
20) Montana - 902,195                                   967,440 (+7.23%)
21) Arkansas - 2,673,400                           2,855,390(+6.81%)
22) South Dakota - 754,844                           804,194  (+6.54%)
23) New Hampshire - 1,235,786   1,315,809 (+6.48%)
24) Maryland - 5,296,486                           5,633,597 (+6.36%)
25) Hawaii - 1,211,537                                   1,288,198 (+6.33%)
26) Minnesota - 4,919,479                           5,220,393 (+6.12%)
27) Missouri - 5,595,211           5,911,605 (+5.65%)
28) Kentucky - 4,041,769                           4,269,245 (+5.63%)
29) Oklahoma - 3,450,654                           3,642,361 (+5.56%)
30) Wisconsin - 5,363,675           5,627,967 (+4.93%)
31) Indiana - 6,080,485                                   6,376,792 (+4.87%)
32) Alabama - 4,447,100           4,661,900 (+4.83%)
33) Kansas - 2,688,418                                   2,802,134 (+4.23%)
34) Nebraska - 1,711,263                           1,783,432 (+4.22%)
35) Illinois - 12,419,293           12,901,563 (+3.88%)
36) District of Columbia - 572,059                   591,833 (+3.46%)
37) Mississippi - 2,844,658           2,938,618 (+3.30%)
38) Maine - 1,274,923                   1,316,456 (+3.26%)
39) New Jersey - 8,414,350                           8,682,661 (+3.19%)
40) Connecticut - 3,405,565                           3,501,252 (+2.81%)
41) New York - 18,976,457                           19,490,297 (+2.71%)
42) Iowa - 2,926,324                                   3,002,555 (+2.61%)
43) Massachusetts - 6,349,097                   6,497,967 (+2.34%)
44) Vermont - 608,827                                   621,270 (+2.04%)
45) Pennsylvania - 12,281,054                   12,448,279 (+1.36%)
46) Ohio - 11,353,140                                   11,485,910 (+1.17%)
47) Michigan - 9,938,444                                   10,003,422 (+0.65%)
48) West Virginia - 1,808,344   1,814,468 (+0.34%)
49) Rhode Island - 1,048,319   1,050,788 (+0.24%)
50) North Dakota - 642,200           641,481 (-0.11%)
51) Louisiana - 4,468,976                           4,410,796 (-1.30%)

[Хahar 🤔]

Wrong colors!

[Alexander Hamilton]

In terms of population, it doesn't look very good for Democrats going into the 2010 redistricting. According to 2008 population estimates, it looks as though the states that are experiencing the most population gains are red states with the exception of a few swing states. Here's a list of the states ranked by highest percentage of increases in each one along with their populations in 2000 and 2008 estimates.
45) Pennsylvania - 12,281,054                   12,448,279 (+1.36%)
46) Ohio - 11,353,140                                   11,485,910 (+1.17%)
47) Michigan - 9,938,444                                   10,003,422 (+0.65%)
48) West Virginia - 1,808,344   1,814,468 (+0.34%)

Rust belt, no? Yikes.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Wrong colors!

I think he did that on purpose. Why I don't know cause Red hurts my eyes and reminds me of Joseph Stalin and I fine that more beffiting the Dems then our party.

[Padfoot]

In terms of population, it doesn't look very good for Democrats going into the 2010 redistricting. According to 2008 population estimates, it looks as though the states that are experiencing the most population gains are red states with the exception of a few swing states. Here's a list of the states ranked by highest percentage of increases in each one along with their populations in 2000 and 2008 estimates. I used the traditional red-blue color scheme with red for states won by McCain and blue for Obama.

1) Nevada - 1,998,257                   2,600,167 (+30.12%)
2) Arizona - 5,130,632                   6,500,180 (+26.69%)
3) Utah - 2,233,169                                           2,736,424 (+22.54%)
4) Georgia - 8,186,453                                   9,685,744 (+18.31%)
5) Idaho - 1,293,953                                   1,523,816 (+17.76%)
6) Texas - 20,851,820                                   24,326,974 (+16.67%)
7) Colorado - 4,301,261           4,939,456 (+14.84%)
8. Florida - 15,982,378                                   18,328,340 (+14.68%)
9) North Carolina - 8,049,313                           9,222,414 (+14.57%)
10) South Carolina - 4,012,012   4,479,800 (+11.66%)
11) Delaware - 783,600           873,092 (+11.42%)
12) Washington - 5,894,121                           6,549,224 (+11.11%)
13) Oregon - 3,421,399                                   3,790,060 (+10.78%)
14) Virginia - 7,078,515                                   7,769,089 (+9.76%)
15) Alaska - 626,932                   686,293 (+9.47%)
16) Tennessee - 5,689,283                           6,214,888 (+9.24%)
17) New Mexico - 1,819,046           1,984,356 (+9.09%)
18) California - 33,871,648                           36,756,666 (+8.52%)
19) Wyoming - 493,782                   532,668 (+7.88%)
20) Montana - 902,195                                   967,440 (+7.23%)
21) Arkansas - 2,673,400                           2,855,390(+6.81%)
22) South Dakota - 754,844                           804,194  (+6.54%)
23) New Hampshire - 1,235,786   1,315,809 (+6.48%)
24) Maryland - 5,296,486                           5,633,597 (+6.36%)
25) Hawaii - 1,211,537                                   1,288,198 (+6.33%)
26) Minnesota - 4,919,479                           5,220,393 (+6.12%)
27) Missouri - 5,595,211           5,911,605 (+5.65%)
28) Kentucky - 4,041,769                           4,269,245 (+5.63%)
29) Oklahoma - 3,450,654                           3,642,361 (+5.56%)
30) Wisconsin - 5,363,675           5,627,967 (+4.93%)
31) Indiana - 6,080,485                                   6,376,792 (+4.87%)
32) Alabama - 4,447,100           4,661,900 (+4.83%)
33) Kansas - 2,688,418                                   2,802,134 (+4.23%)
34) Nebraska - 1,711,263                           1,783,432 (+4.22%)
35) Illinois - 12,419,293           12,901,563 (+3.88%)
36) District of Columbia - 572,059                   591,833 (+3.46%)
37) Mississippi - 2,844,658           2,938,618 (+3.30%)
38) Maine - 1,274,923                   1,316,456 (+3.26%)
39) New Jersey - 8,414,350                           8,682,661 (+3.19%)
40) Connecticut - 3,405,565                           3,501,252 (+2.81%)
41) New York - 18,976,457                           19,490,297 (+2.71%)
42) Iowa - 2,926,324                                   3,002,555 (+2.61%)
43) Massachusetts - 6,349,097                   6,497,967 (+2.34%)
44) Vermont - 608,827                                   621,270 (+2.04%)
45) Pennsylvania - 12,281,054                   12,448,279 (+1.36%)
46) Ohio - 11,353,140                                   11,485,910 (+1.17%)
47) Michigan - 9,938,444                                   10,003,422 (+0.65%)
48) West Virginia - 1,808,344   1,814,468 (+0.34%)
49) Rhode Island - 1,048,319   1,050,788 (+0.24%)
50) North Dakota - 642,200           641,481 (-0.11%)
51) Louisiana - 4,468,976                           4,410,796 (-1.30%)

Arizona, Georgia, and Texas (and South Carolina to a lesser extent) are all trending towards the Democrats so its not really that bad.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In terms of population, it doesn't look very good for Democrats going into the 2010 redistricting. According to 2008 population estimates, it looks as though the states that are experiencing the most population gains are red states with the exception of a few swing states. Here's a list of the states ranked by highest percentage of increases in each one along with their populations in 2000 and 2008 estimates. I used the traditional red-blue color scheme with red for states won by McCain and blue for Obama.

1) Nevada - 1,998,257                   2,600,167 (+30.12%)
2) Arizona - 5,130,632                   6,500,180 (+26.69%)
3) Utah - 2,233,169                                           2,736,424 (+22.54%)
4) Georgia - 8,186,453                                   9,685,744 (+18.31%)
5) Idaho - 1,293,953                                   1,523,816 (+17.76%)
6) Texas - 20,851,820                                   24,326,974 (+16.67%)
7) Colorado - 4,301,261           4,939,456 (+14.84%)
8. Florida - 15,982,378                                   18,328,340 (+14.68%)
9) North Carolina - 8,049,313                           9,222,414 (+14.57%)
10) South Carolina - 4,012,012   4,479,800 (+11.66%)
11) Delaware - 783,600           873,092 (+11.42%)
12) Washington - 5,894,121                           6,549,224 (+11.11%)
13) Oregon - 3,421,399                                   3,790,060 (+10.78%)
14) Virginia - 7,078,515                                   7,769,089 (+9.76%)
15) Alaska - 626,932                   686,293 (+9.47%)
16) Tennessee - 5,689,283                           6,214,888 (+9.24%)
17) New Mexico - 1,819,046           1,984,356 (+9.09%)
18) California - 33,871,648                           36,756,666 (+8.52%)
19) Wyoming - 493,782                   532,668 (+7.88%)
20) Montana - 902,195                                   967,440 (+7.23%)
21) Arkansas - 2,673,400                           2,855,390(+6.81%)
22) South Dakota - 754,844                           804,194  (+6.54%)
23) New Hampshire - 1,235,786   1,315,809 (+6.48%)
24) Maryland - 5,296,486                           5,633,597 (+6.36%)
25) Hawaii - 1,211,537                                   1,288,198 (+6.33%)
26) Minnesota - 4,919,479                           5,220,393 (+6.12%)
27) Missouri - 5,595,211           5,911,605 (+5.65%)
28) Kentucky - 4,041,769                           4,269,245 (+5.63%)
29) Oklahoma - 3,450,654                           3,642,361 (+5.56%)
30) Wisconsin - 5,363,675           5,627,967 (+4.93%)
31) Indiana - 6,080,485                                   6,376,792 (+4.87%)
32) Alabama - 4,447,100           4,661,900 (+4.83%)
33) Kansas - 2,688,418                                   2,802,134 (+4.23%)
34) Nebraska - 1,711,263                           1,783,432 (+4.22%)
35) Illinois - 12,419,293           12,901,563 (+3.88%)
36) District of Columbia - 572,059                   591,833 (+3.46%)
37) Mississippi - 2,844,658           2,938,618 (+3.30%)
38) Maine - 1,274,923                   1,316,456 (+3.26%)
39) New Jersey - 8,414,350                           8,682,661 (+3.19%)
40) Connecticut - 3,405,565                           3,501,252 (+2.81%)
41) New York - 18,976,457                           19,490,297 (+2.71%)
42) Iowa - 2,926,324                                   3,002,555 (+2.61%)
43) Massachusetts - 6,349,097                   6,497,967 (+2.34%)
44) Vermont - 608,827                                   621,270 (+2.04%)
45) Pennsylvania - 12,281,054                   12,448,279 (+1.36%)
46) Ohio - 11,353,140                                   11,485,910 (+1.17%)
47) Michigan - 9,938,444                                   10,003,422 (+0.65%)
48) West Virginia - 1,808,344   1,814,468 (+0.34%)
49) Rhode Island - 1,048,319   1,050,788 (+0.24%)
50) North Dakota - 642,200           641,481 (-0.11%)
51) Louisiana - 4,468,976                           4,410,796 (-1.30%)

Arizona, Georgia, and Texas (and South Carolina to a lesser extent) are all trending towards the Democrats so its not really that bad.

Yea its not like in previous years when Republicans could boast about it benefiting them most since FL, AZ, NV, and GA are not as GOP as they used to be.