2012-NC-PPP: President Obama (D) leads Palin (R) by 7

[Tender Branson]

Obama: 49%
Palin: 42%

Palin Favorables:

44% Favorable
46% Unfavorable

PPP surveyed 767 North Carolina voters from July 10th to 12th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_715.pdf

[WalterMitty]

this means a lot, obviously.

[Lief 🗽]

Palin has my support in the 2012 Republican primaries.

[Farage]

palin may be irrelevant even if i like her a lot and i think she has an important role.
I would be excited to look the polls vs Romney and huckabee ...

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama vs Palin

Northeast: Obama 54%; Palin 38%
Northwest: Obama 46%; Palin 39%
Charlotte: Obama 52%; Palin 39%
West: Obama 43%; Palin 47%
Southeast: Obama 51%; Palin 39%
Raleigh-Durham: Obama 49%; Palin 49%

Obama crushes Palin in urban (62-32) and suburban (55-37) NC; Palin crushes Obama in rural (38-51) NC; while small town NC is competitive (47-43)

23% of conservatives support Obama against Palin; 12% of liberals favor Palin against Obama. Needless to say moderates break overwhelmingly for Obama (60-31). He's competitive among Independents (45-42), who heavily favored (60-39) McCain in 2008

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Obama vs Palin

Northeast: Obama 54%; Palin 38%
Northwest: Obama 46%; Palin 39%
Charlotte: Obama 52%; Palin 39%
West: Obama 43%; Palin 47%
Southeast: Obama 51%; Palin 39%
Raleigh-Durham: Obama 49%; Palin 49%

Obama crushes Palin in urban (62-32) and suburban (55-37) NC; Palin crushes Obama in rural (38-51) NC; while small town NC is competitive (47-43)

23% of conservatives support Obama against Palin; 12% of liberals favor Palin against Obama. Needless to say moderates break overwhelmingly for Obama (60-31). He's competitive among Independents (45-42), who heavily favored (60-39) McCain in 2008

There is no way that Raleigh-Durham is tied. Obama should be leading by double digits there. This poll is too generous to Palin.

Keep in mind that Northwest NC includes the old GOP bastion in the state stretching back to the Civil War, for her to be trailing that badly there in area the Repubs general win to win the state, she would have to be trailing by at least 10 or more statewide IMHO.

[Devilman88]

Obama vs Palin

Northeast: Obama 54%; Palin 38%
Northwest: Obama 46%; Palin 39%
Charlotte: Obama 52%; Palin 39%
West: Obama 43%; Palin 47%
Southeast: Obama 51%; Palin 39%
Raleigh-Durham: Obama 49%; Palin 49%

Obama crushes Palin in urban (62-32) and suburban (55-37) NC; Palin crushes Obama in rural (38-51) NC; while small town NC is competitive (47-43)

23% of conservatives support Obama against Palin; 12% of liberals favor Palin against Obama. Needless to say moderates break overwhelmingly for Obama (60-31). He's competitive among Independents (45-42), who heavily favored (60-39) McCain in 2008

There is no way that Raleigh-Durham is tied. Obama should be leading by double digits there. This poll is too generous to Palin.

Keep in mind that Northwest NC includes the old GOP bastion in the state stretching back to the Civil War, for her to be trailing that badly there in area the Repubs general win to win the state, she would have to be trailing by at least 10 or more statewide IMHO.

Polling out this far is just plain crazy, I would have to say Palin would win NC.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Obama vs Palin

Northeast: Obama 54%; Palin 38%
Northwest: Obama 46%; Palin 39%
Charlotte: Obama 52%; Palin 39%
West: Obama 43%; Palin 47%
Southeast: Obama 51%; Palin 39%
Raleigh-Durham: Obama 49%; Palin 49%

Obama crushes Palin in urban (62-32) and suburban (55-37) NC; Palin crushes Obama in rural (38-51) NC; while small town NC is competitive (47-43)

23% of conservatives support Obama against Palin; 12% of liberals favor Palin against Obama. Needless to say moderates break overwhelmingly for Obama (60-31). He's competitive among Independents (45-42), who heavily favored (60-39) McCain in 2008

There is no way that Raleigh-Durham is tied. Obama should be leading by double digits there. This poll is too generous to Palin.

Keep in mind that Northwest NC includes the old GOP bastion in the state stretching back to the Civil War, for her to be trailing that badly there in area the Repubs general win to win the state, she would have to be trailing by at least 10 or more statewide IMHO.

Polling out this far is just plain crazy, I would have to say Palin would win NC.

How?

[Devilman88]

Obama vs Palin

Northeast: Obama 54%; Palin 38%
Northwest: Obama 46%; Palin 39%
Charlotte: Obama 52%; Palin 39%
West: Obama 43%; Palin 47%
Southeast: Obama 51%; Palin 39%
Raleigh-Durham: Obama 49%; Palin 49%

Obama crushes Palin in urban (62-32) and suburban (55-37) NC; Palin crushes Obama in rural (38-51) NC; while small town NC is competitive (47-43)

23% of conservatives support Obama against Palin; 12% of liberals favor Palin against Obama. Needless to say moderates break overwhelmingly for Obama (60-31). He's competitive among Independents (45-42), who heavily favored (60-39) McCain in 2008

There is no way that Raleigh-Durham is tied. Obama should be leading by double digits there. This poll is too generous to Palin.

Keep in mind that Northwest NC includes the old GOP bastion in the state stretching back to the Civil War, for her to be trailing that badly there in area the Repubs general win to win the state, she would have to be trailing by at least 10 or more statewide IMHO.

Polling out this far is just plain crazy, I would have to say Palin would win NC.

How?

If she runs and wins the nom and starts campagining in NC her numbers will go up. Its kinda like them polls that showed Obama killing Romney in NC and we all know Romney would have won NC.

[Holmes]

Any campaigning would change the numbers... that's why a poll 3 years early is stupid.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Obama vs Palin

Northeast: Obama 54%; Palin 38%
Northwest: Obama 46%; Palin 39%
Charlotte: Obama 52%; Palin 39%
West: Obama 43%; Palin 47%
Southeast: Obama 51%; Palin 39%
Raleigh-Durham: Obama 49%; Palin 49%

Obama crushes Palin in urban (62-32) and suburban (55-37) NC; Palin crushes Obama in rural (38-51) NC; while small town NC is competitive (47-43)

23% of conservatives support Obama against Palin; 12% of liberals favor Palin against Obama. Needless to say moderates break overwhelmingly for Obama (60-31). He's competitive among Independents (45-42), who heavily favored (60-39) McCain in 2008

There is no way that Raleigh-Durham is tied. Obama should be leading by double digits there. This poll is too generous to Palin.

Keep in mind that Northwest NC includes the old GOP bastion in the state stretching back to the Civil War, for her to be trailing that badly there in area the Repubs general win to win the state, she would have to be trailing by at least 10 or more statewide IMHO.

Polling out this far is just plain crazy, I would have to say Palin would win NC.

How?

If she runs and wins the nom and starts campagining in NC her numbers will go up. Its kinda like them polls that showed Obama killing Romney in NC and we all know Romney would have won NC.

Of course, its just I don't see her winning NC primarily cause I think her nationwide ceiling is 45% which means NC will go to Obama.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

LOL @ this poll..

First of all, I love how PPP decides to poll Palin after she basically ruined her political career by retiring from the governors office. It is basically an attempt to show Obama stronger than he really is. He isn't going to win NC by 7 if an election was held today, especially with a 49% approval rating in the state.

Second, it is laughable that Palin is tied in the Triangle area, an area McCain lost by double digits, while Obama leads in Northwest North Carolina (unless NW means the Triad area in this case). Unless Raleigh has a lot of really partisan right wing Republicans that respond better to the Palin type than to the McCain (could be possible, I was called a RINO at the state convention there), this seems so unlikely.

The point is that this is a useless poll conducted by PPP to boost Obama's strength in the state in the public's eyes. Palin will not win the nomination anymore so it's useless. Poll Obama against someone else like Romney, Huckabee or Gingrich and see how well he is doing then.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Palin has my support in the 2012 Republican primaries.

I would vote for her in primary just to help her win a nomination and thus help Obama to beat her mercilessly

[minionofmidas]

Obama vs Palin

Northeast: Obama 54%; Palin 38%
Northwest: Obama 46%; Palin 39%
Charlotte: Obama 52%; Palin 39%
West: Obama 43%; Palin 47%
Southeast: Obama 51%; Palin 39%
Raleigh-Durham: Obama 49%; Palin 49%

Obama crushes Palin in urban (62-32) and suburban (55-37) NC; Palin crushes Obama in rural (38-51) NC; while small town NC is competitive (47-43)

23% of conservatives support Obama against Palin; 12% of liberals favor Palin against Obama. Needless to say moderates break overwhelmingly for Obama (60-31). He's competitive among Independents (45-42), who heavily favored (60-39) McCain in 2008

There is no way that Raleigh-Durham is tied. Obama should be leading by double digits there. This poll is too generous to Palin.

And the subsamples on 767 people are how large, exactly?

[Lunar]

LOL @ this poll..

First of all, I love how PPP decides to poll Palin after she basically ruined her political career by retiring from the governors office. It is basically an attempt to show Obama stronger than he really is. He isn't going to win NC by 7 if an election was held today, especially with a 49% approval rating in the state.

Second, it is laughable that Palin is tied in the Triangle area, an area McCain lost by double digits, while Obama leads in Northwest North Carolina (unless NW means the Triad area in this case). Unless Raleigh has a lot of really partisan right wing Republicans that respond better to the Palin type than to the McCain (could be possible, I was called a RINO at the state convention there), this seems so unlikely.

The point is that this is a useless poll conducted by PPP to boost Obama's strength in the state in the public's eyes. Palin will not win the nomination anymore so it's useless. Poll Obama against someone else like Romney, Huckabee or Gingrich and see how well he is doing then.

here was what I was going to write:

Code:

It's also possible that they polled it for something else, figured they may as well ask presidential-related questions in a state Obama won with less than <1% (reasonable), and are releasing the information in stages, as PPP is wont to do in order to increase website traffic, a fair strategy.

On the other hand, after clicking the link, I see that it's only Obama/Palin, Obama approval, Hagan approval, and "gays in the military" approval.  An odd collection that, in the context of the entire release document, I think is worthy of criticism, although not perhaps in the language you used considering that yesterday they released information on Perdue's approval.  Let's see what other information gets released.  The fact that they chose the most headline-grabbing opponent for Obama might not be the most crazy thing ever, considering PPP's business philosophy...

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs Palin

Northeast: Obama 54%; Palin 38%
Northwest: Obama 46%; Palin 39%
Charlotte: Obama 52%; Palin 39%
West: Obama 43%; Palin 47%
Southeast: Obama 51%; Palin 39%
Raleigh-Durham: Obama 49%; Palin 49%

Obama crushes Palin in urban (62-32) and suburban (55-37) NC; Palin crushes Obama in rural (38-51) NC; while small town NC is competitive (47-43)

23% of conservatives support Obama against Palin; 12% of liberals favor Palin against Obama. Needless to say moderates break overwhelmingly for Obama (60-31). He's competitive among Independents (45-42), who heavily favored (60-39) McCain in 2008

There is no way that Raleigh-Durham is tied. Obama should be leading by double digits there. This poll is too generous to Palin.

Keep in mind that Northwest NC includes the old GOP bastion in the state stretching back to the Civil War, for her to be trailing that badly there in area the Repubs general win to win the state, she would have to be trailing by at least 10 or more statewide IMHO.

Polling out this far is just plain crazy, I would have to say Palin would win NC.

How?

If she runs and wins the nom and starts campagining in NC her numbers will go up. Its kinda like them polls that showed Obama killing Romney in NC and we all know Romney would have won NC.

Of course, its just I don't see her winning NC primarily cause I think her nationwide ceiling is 45% which means NC will go to Obama.

Forget Sarah Palin. Her ceiling has not simply gone down; it has utterly collapsed. 45% may have been reasonable not so long ago, but she has just attached the "QUITTER" label to herself -- and it's not for giving up smoking.   
 

[Brittain33]

Should Raleigh-Durham be 49%-39%? No other region has only 2% undecided.