2012 Republican Rundown: The Sweet Sixteen

[Erc]

Since we had exactly 16 candidates picked by our fair voters, I couldn't resist the temptation to do a bracket.

Candidates are seeded by their likelihood to run, as chosen by the 17-poll series over the past few months---not necessarily a direct indicator of their likelihood of winning, so expect a few 'upsets' here and there.

There are 8 head-to-head matchups this week: please vote for one candidate in each lettered matchup.  Polls close on Thursday, May 14.

A:
Gov. Sarah Palin (AK), #1, 97%
vs.
Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (ID), #16, 50%

B:
Gov. Mitt Romney (MA), #2, 93%
vs.
Gov. Mitch Daniels (IN), #15, 52%

C:
Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR), #3, 91%
vs.
Gov. Tom Ridge (PA), #14, 58%

D:
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (MN), #4, 91%
vs.
Rep. Eric Cantor (VA), #13, 60%

E:
Gov. Charlie Crist (FL), #5, 89%
vs.
Rep. Mike Pence (IN), #12, 62%

F:
Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr. (UT), #6, 84%
vs.
Gov. Haley Barbour (MS), #11, 67%

G:
Sen. John Thune (SD), #7, 83%
vs.
Gov. Mark Sanford (SC), #10, 67%

H:
Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA), #8, 76%
vs.
Sen. John Ensign (NV), #9, 75%

[MasterJedi]

It's either going to be Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin. And Palin is on the way back end of this too.

[tmthforu94]

A: Sarah Palin
B: Mitt Romney
C: Tom Ridge
D: Eric Cantor
E: Charlie Crist
F: Jon Huntsman Jr.
G: John Thune
H: Bobby Jindal

[RIP Robert H Bork]

A: Sarah Palin
B: Mitt Romney
C: Tom Ridge
D: Eric Cantor
E: Charlie Crist
F: Jon Huntsman Jr.
G: John Thune
H: Bobby Jindal

LOL.

My answers for the record:

Palin
Romney
Huckabee
Pawlenty
Crist
Barbour
Thune
Jindal

[tmthforu94]

A: Sarah Palin
B: Mitt Romney
C: Tom Ridge
D: Eric Cantor
E: Charlie Crist
F: Jon Huntsman Jr.
G: John Thune
H: Bobby Jindal

LOL.

My answers for the record:

Palin
Romney
Huckabee
Pawlenty
Crist
Barbour
Thune
Jindal

Not a great selection on that matchup, but...
I can't stand Huckabee. I'd rather have an Obama/Wright ticket (not possible, I know) than Huckabee.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

A: Sarah Palin
B: Mitt Romney
C: Tom Ridge
D: Eric Cantor
E: Charlie Crist
F: Jon Huntsman Jr.
G: John Thune
H: Bobby Jindal

LOL.

My answers for the record:

Palin
Romney
Huckabee
Pawlenty
Crist
Barbour
Thune
Jindal

Not a great selection on that matchup, but...
I can't stand Huckabee. I'd rather have an Obama/Wright ticket (not possible, I know) than Huckabee.

You are just being a hack. I already know that you a negative opinion of Huckabee (a very irrational opinion as well). But Ridge, more likely to win than Huckabee?? LOL. You do realize that this poll is about who is more likely to win, and not who you prefer. Even though I despise Romney, I still voted for him over Daniels, because I realize that he is more likely to win.

[paul718]

Jindal has more votes than Ensign?  Really?

[big bad fab]

Please do not forget the question: it's not about our wishes.

I picked:
Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Crist, Huntsman, Thune (yep, an ambitious one and Sanford seems to hesitate too much) and... Ensign ! (Jindal will wait a bit... let's say 4 more years).

[tmthforu94]

A: Sarah Palin
B: Mitt Romney
C: Tom Ridge
D: Eric Cantor
E: Charlie Crist
F: Jon Huntsman Jr.
G: John Thune
H: Bobby Jindal

LOL.

My answers for the record:

Palin
Romney
Huckabee
Pawlenty
Crist
Barbour
Thune
Jindal

Not a great selection on that matchup, but...
I can't stand Huckabee. I'd rather have an Obama/Wright ticket (not possible, I know) than Huckabee.

You are just being a hack. I already know that you a negative opinion of Huckabee (a very irrational opinion as well). But Ridge, more likely to win than Huckabee?? LOL. You do realize that this poll is about who is more likely to win, and not who you prefer. Even though I despise Romney, I still voted for him over Daniels, because I realize that he is more likely to win.

No, I'm not being a hack.
I would feel much more comfortable with Ridge on top of the ticket than Huckabee. Ridge is much more appealing to moderates than Huckabee will ever be.

[JSojourner]

1.  Romney
2.  Huntsman
3.  Ensign
4.  Pawlenty
5.  Thune
6.  Huckabee
7.  Palin
8.  Pence


Here's my thinking:

Cash is king in either party and Romney has it.  We don't know for sure that the economy will be THE issue in 2011-12 but if it is, his stock may rise among the GOP.

Huntsman as #2 does not reveal a pro-Mormon bias on my part, having picked Romney as the most likely.  Rather, I think he (so far) strikes me as someone whose intelligence will arm the GOP with a candidate who will not embarass himself against President Obama.  There's also the western state message -- the GOP saying, "We're not giving up the west w/o a fight.  And the fact that, though Mormon and conservative, Huntsman is not necessarily in lock step with the religious right.  

John Ensign is good looking and he'll have had four years to use his position in the Senate to hammer and yammer at everything Obama does.  He is probably closer to the ultra conservative camp on social issues than either Romney or Huntsman.  But as we have seen in the past, every Republican is an ultra conservative when the Iowa Caucuses roll around.  How much will that mean and will that help or hurt has yet to be divined.

Tim Pawlenty automatically brings Minn, Wisc, Iowa and the Dakotas with him.  <<<pause>>>
LOL Ok -- I know that's not true and I never said it was.  But what he does offer the GOP is a do-no-harm candidate who likely won't embarass himself or the party...and seems like a nice person. I can't see him winning against an even somewhat successful Obama and we may be entering into Bob Dole-Sacrificial Lamb territory here.

Thune is a more hardcore, right wing version of Pawlenty of Huntsman.  And he's not a very intelligent man.  If you want an extreme conservative with brains, go with Ensign or Kyl.  Thune does have a certainly style and swagger, however.  But don't forget the last South Dakota Senator who ran for President.  I wouldn't get too excited.

Everyone seems to discount Huckabee.  And admittedly, I have him pretty low on my list.  But religious conservatives from the South -- who do not come off as arrogant or hateful -- can be hard to come by.  I suppose you could include Isakson or Cochrane in that category -- both devout fellas, from what I understand, and not moonbat crazy.   Huckabee isn't either.  And he can speak his mind, with a warm smile, and not scare the average voter.  One thing naysayers need to remember:  Huck will have had almost four years of free advertising with his Faux news show. He's making lots of very kind public gestures, too -- like getting inauguration tickets for kids at an inner city school.  Call it a stunt if you want, but it made me like him more.  The thing GOP voters will have to decide is -- "can we risk it"? If Huck's rallies start to resemble salvation crusades and altar calls, Primary voters outside the Bible Belt might just be a bit squeamish.

I would never rule out Sarah Palin.  She's dumb as a box of hair and, so far, shows little evidence of attempting to remedy that image.  But goshdarnit, she's just so cute and sassy. The GOP could be the first major party ever to nominee a woman for President, and not Vice-President.  One of the few wise things Palin did early in the campaign as VP nominee was tip her cap to Geraldine Ferraro for breaking the ground.  Later, at times, she sounded as though her own nomination were historic in some way (beyond being the first Republican woman nominee).  But if she were at the top of the ticket, there would be some bragging rights for the party. It wouldn't translate into anywhere near enough votes to defeat Obama.  But if she can start to make sense when she speaks...and gain control of two or three major issues...the party could do worse.

At one point, I had Mike Pence pegged to be the most likely nominee.  Here's what's in his favor in that regard --  He is young looking, though greying.  That conveys vigor, energy and youth...coupled with experience and seasoning.  Don't overlook the importance of image.  Before becoming one of the two most conservative members of Indiana's congressional delegation, Pence was known statewide as "Indiana's Rush Limbaugh"...hosting a talk radio show in which he wailed and whined about Governor Bayh, Governor O'Bannon, President Clinton and Democrats everywhere.  On the stump, during the Republican Primary, this is liable to be an asset for Pence.  Too, he was the very first critic out of the gate when President Bush and Hank Paulsen (sp?) announced the first bailout.  I thought, for sure, that was his way of setting himself up for a 2012 bid.  Pence is powerful in the House.  But there's something else to consider.  He could have (and many of you would argue, should have) sought to replace Boehner as Minority Leader. Why he didn't is a mystery to me.  But the fact that he didn't would seem to indicate a desire for another office (Governor, Senator, Vice-President) or a general contentedness with life in the HOR.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Palin
Romney
Huckabee
Pawlenty
Pence
Barbour
Thune
Ensign

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Republicans like runners-up, so I went with Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas. He would hold onto his state with no problem. Mitt Romney, ex-governor of Massachusetts and born in Detroit, Michigan, would fail to carry the states in which he has political and family roots. And as for 2008 vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin: the governor of Alaska is the wrong kind of candidate for the times.

My prediction is that 44th and current President of the United States Barack Obama, former U.S. Senator of Illinois and the Democrat, will win re-election in 2012.

Just for the record Romney was runner up not Huck.



A. Sarah Palin
B. Mitt Romney
C. Mike Huckabee
D. Tim Pawlenty
E. Charlie Crist
F. Jon Huntsmen Jr.
G. John Thune
H. Bobby Jindal

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I concur. The civilized libertarian, the tax-cutter without a mean streak, was the human face of the GOP as the moderates left. That face is gone.

[7,052,770]

Huntsman signed that western states global warming pact.  He may be a dark horse.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

1. Kempthorne
2. Romney
3. Ridge
4. Pawlenty
5. Crist
6. Huntsman
7. Sanford
8. Ensign

[Zarn]

(A) Gov. Sarah Palin (AK)
(B) Gov. Mitt Romney (MA)
(C) Gov. Tom Ridge (PA)
(D) Rep. Eric Cantor (VA)
(E) Gov. Charlie Crist (FL)
(F) Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr. (UT)
(G) Gov. Mark Sanford (SC) [10]
(H) Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA) [8]

LOL at the idea that Thune would be nominated.

[big bad fab]

At the moment, it's hot between Thune and Sanford and even between Jindal and Ensign...

Hold your breath !

[paul718]

(A) Gov. Sarah Palin (AK)
(B) Gov. Mitt Romney (MA)
(C) Gov. Tom Ridge (PA)
(D) Rep. Eric Cantor (VA)
(E) Gov. Charlie Crist (FL)
(F) Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr. (UT)
(G) Gov. Mark Sanford (SC) [10]
(H) Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA) [8]

LOL at the idea that Thune would be nominated.

lol at the idea that Jindal will even run 

[Zarn]

(A) Gov. Sarah Palin (AK)
(B) Gov. Mitt Romney (MA)
(C) Gov. Tom Ridge (PA)
(D) Rep. Eric Cantor (VA)
(E) Gov. Charlie Crist (FL)
(F) Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr. (UT)
(G) Gov. Mark Sanford (SC) [10]
(H) Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA) [8]

LOL at the idea that Thune would be nominated.

lol at the idea that Jindal will even run 

I wish he did. It would help split up the crazy vote.

[Erc]

<24 hours left on this poll, and Thune and Sanford are still tied...