Italian-like party system scenario

[Hash]

You know that I like doing these scenarios with parties in random countries. And I also like Italian politics. Here is a country with a Italian Second Republic system, kind of. The Republic of Kalingrad (yeah, excuse the name. My imagination for that isn't took great. Whatever), which is around 80% English-speaking and 20% French. However, most English speakers are of Irish Catholic descent, so the religious breakdown is approximately 60% Catholic, 35% Protestant, 5% other.

Kalingrad has a largely ceremonial President, elected by Parliament to a five-year term. The President has the power to sign laws, dissolve the legislature, name the Prime Minister, and commands the armed forces. His other powers are significantly controlled by Parliament. The Parliament of Kalingrad is bicameral with a 195-member Chamber of Deputies and a 50-member non-elected Senate.

The 195-member lower house is elected by a rather complex electoral system (it's based on Italy, remember). Coalitions of two or more parties need 4% of the votes to enter Parliament. The component parties of the coalitions need 1% to be eligible for seats themselves. Do note that seats are allocated by coalition party based on the votes for individual coalition parties. Parties outside of coalitions need 5% of the votes. Independent lists need 4%, like coalitions. The current system was adopted in 1995. From 1972 to 1995, there was a universal 1% threshold for parties, coalition or not. From 1944 to 1972, the threshold for all parties was 5%, coalition or not. From 1900 to 1944, FPTP was used. The 50-member Senate is composed of the 8 provincial Presidents, 14 nominated by the President, and 28 elected by the provincial legislatures.

The parties now, by coalition.

Union for Kalingrad (or, the Alliance)

Conservative Party of Kalingrad (CP, Con) The Conservative Party is the oldest party in Kalingrad, and has weathered through crises, electoral low points, and scandals. Founded at independence in 1900 to protect rural landowners and the wealthy upper-class, it quickly became a primarily English party with a declining Catholic vote. The Catholic Conservatives, formed the Christian democrats in 1916. Since then, the CP has been largely Protestant. A strong nationalist and protectionist wing left in the '60's and '70's and the modern CP is a moderate economically and socially right-wing party. (Approx PM: +4, +3)

Kalingrad National Alliance (KNA) The KNA was founded in 1958 by the CP's far-right, which blamed the CP's moderate positions on its electoral failure vis-a-vis of the Catholics. It was joined by the nationalist and protectionist wing of the CP starting in 1964 and by 1976, it was the second strongest party in the Alliance. The KNA remains very socially conservative, economically protectionist, and internationally isolationist. (Approx PM: -4, +7)

Popular Alliance (PA) The Popular Alliance was founded in 1982 by the remnants of the CP's Catholic wing, which was very close to the Church and socially conservative. The PA remains a small fringe party in the UFK, hovering around the 1% threshold every election. Politically, it is still close to the Church and socially conservative. It is also moderately protectionist. (Approx PM: -2, +6)

National Conservative Party (NCP) The NCP was founded in 1988 by Harry Kennedy, a CP Senator for the Central Province. Kennedy represented what remained of the protectionist wing of the CP after the birth of the KNA. It remains a purely one-man fringe regional party that is strongly protectionist but neutral on social issues. (Approx PM: -5, +2)

The Union

Democrats of the Left-Social Democratic Federation of Kalingrad (DL-SDFK) The DL-SDFK is the party issued out of the merger of the Democratic Left and the SDFK in 2008. The Democrats of the Left, formerly known as the Democratic Left, was officially founded in 1951 on the ruins of the scandal-ridden Labour Party (Labour-led coalition won a pitiful 10% in the 1944 elections). In the late '50's and '60's it experienced rapid growth on the back of the Communists. Indeed, many reformist communists left the Communist Party in the late '60's to join the DL. In 1972, the DL-led Union formed the first left-wing government in Kalingrad. The DL became the Democrats of the Left in 1981, following the left's thumping in 1980. The current-day DL is socially neutral and moderately left-wing economically. The Social Democratic Federation (SDFK) was founded by social liberals and pro-free trade Left Democrats in 1987. (Approx PM: -3, -2)

United Liberal Party (ULP) The ULP was born independently in the late '30's as the representative of social reforms and secularism. It won around 4-5% of the votes independent of any coalition between 1932 and 1940. In 1944, it joined the Union of the Left. It remains a reluctant member of the left-wing coalition, though ULP MPs propped up UFK governments in 1984, 1998, and 2008. Those dissident MPs often ran with the CP in the next election. Today, the ULP remains very socially liberal, being one of the only parties actively in favour of gay marriage, and very secular. It supports the current welfare system, and is economically in favour of so-called "fair trade". (Approx PM: +1, -5)

New Movement-United Kalingrad (NM-UK) The New Movement is the newest of Kalingradian political parties, having been formed in 2001 by ULP dissident. The NM-UK claims to be economically libertarian (or classical liberal) and socially liberal. Its electroral base is limited to wealthy urbanites. (Approx PM: +5, -4)

Green Party (GPK) The Green Party was founded in 1990 as your typical left-wing green party. It remains electorally very marginal. (Approx PM: -3, -6)

Left Front

Communist Party of Kalingrad (CPK) The CPK was founded in 1911, but emerged as a relevant force only in the late '20's. With the decline of the Labour Party due to scandals in the '30's, the CPK captured Labour's hold on workers and miners. The CPK surpassed the Labour-led Union in 1932, in the midst of the Depression. The CPK remained the second party in elections until the re-emergence of the moderate centre-left in 1964. In 1965, the CPK's more moderate leadership was defeated by a hard-line Marxist faction which led the CPK through a period of gradual decline. In 1972, after the Union won 77 seats (UFK 57, CPK 23, Catholics 18), the CPK finally agreed to support the centre-left government, in power until 1980. In 1984, the hard-line lost to the moderates, which actively supported a Union-Left Front coalition. Despite the failures of talks to form a such coalition, the CPK entered into a close alliance with the Union (and participated in government between 1988 and 1994). This alliance ended in 2001, with the Union's shift to the centre. Despite that, the CPK supported the Union's short-lived 2006-2008 government, but the CPK's departure from the coalition in 2006 led to snap elections. The current CPK leadership is more hard-line, but the CPK has nonetheless seen pleasing electoral results, mostly due to the Union's gradual shift to the centre. The CPK is strongly economically left-wing and socially neutral. (Approx PM: -7, +1)

Socialist Workers Party (SWP) The SWP was founded by CPK hard-liners who disapproved of the close relationship between the CPK's leadership and the Union. Running independently in 1990, the SWP won 4 seats (2.3% of the vote). However, it collapsed in 1994 (0.1%). It joined the CPK's new Left Front in 1998, and won one seat in the 1998 elections. Today, the SWP remains close to the CPK and is ideologically similar to the CPK's current leadership. They are often said to be a "redundant party", and its support remains very weak. (Approx PM: -7, +2)

The old Trotskyst Revolutionary Communist League (RCL) participates in the Left Front at a national level (not at a municipal level, where the CPK is part of the Union)

The Centre Coalition (member of the UFK until 2009)

Union of the Centre and Christian Democrats (UCCD) The UCCD, or the Catholic Party was founded by the Catholic wing of the CP in 1916 and was joined in 1918 by the Christian socialist wing of the Labour Party. From 1920 to 1928, the UCCD was a reluctant junior partner in Conservative governments. Stil, the UCCD grew rapidly, while the Labour Party fell into corruption and the Conservative Party into radical sectarian politics. The UCCD became the largest party in Parliament in 1928 and remained so until 1960. In coalition with the Alliance, it dominated the government from 1928 until 1956 as the senior party in the coalition. The decline of the Church's influence and numerous scandals destroyed the UCCD from the '50's to the '70's. After only 10% and 18 seats in 1972, the UCCD joined the UFK coalition before the 1976 elections. Feeling more and more at odds with an increasingly conservative and isolationist coalition, it left the UFK in 2009 and precipitated early elections. Today's UCCD remains quite strongly socially conservative (it remains close to the Church) and economically moderate. (Approx PM: +2, +4)

League for the South (LfS) The League for the South, a former UFK member like the UCCD was founded in 1991 by a businessman from the wealthy south who was close to the UCCD and the CP. The LfS, very marginal, supports increased devolution (the 8 provinces have limited legislative power), federalism. It takes no position on social issues, though its membership is socially conservative. (Approx PM: +2, +3)



Please respond and vote. If there is interest, I could go into more details. If there is interest.

[tmthforu94]

Hmm...
None of these parties are socially conservative enough for me.
I voted for the Conservative Party...The first one

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting topic. I would vote for DL-SDFK.

[Hash]

Hmm...
None of these parties are socially conservative enough for me.
I voted for the Conservative Party...The first one

The Conservative Party is moving rightwards socially, while the KNA is moderating its protectionism and left-wing economics in favour of strong social conservatism and isolationism.

Very interesting topic. I would vote for DL-SDFK.

SDFK faction or Democrats of the Left faction?

[Devilman88]

New Movement-United Kalingrad

[paul718]

I voted UFK-Conservative (one of the few Catholic holdovers ).

Though I'd consider going NM-UK or UCCD once in a while.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hmm...
None of these parties are socially conservative enough for me.
I voted for the Conservative Party...The first one

The Conservative Party is moving rightwards socially, while the KNA is moderating its protectionism and left-wing economics in favour of strong social conservatism and isolationism.

Very interesting topic. I would vote for DL-SDFK.

SDFK faction or Democrats of the Left faction?

SDFK faction, because I think left faction will not pass the threshold. I don't want to "lose" my vote, even if I'm ideologically nearer the left faction.

[Hash]

2008 General Election

Conservative 24.52% (+1.53%) winning 51 seats (+4)
KNA 12.11% (+3.02%) winning 25 seats (+7)
UCCD 8.53% (-2.50%) winning 17 seats (+5)¹
UfK-Independent List 1.11% (-1.28%) winning 2 seats (-2)²
Popular Alliance 1.01% (-0.01%) winning 2 seats (nc)
NCP 0.97% (+0.09%)
League for the South 0.89% (+0.45%)¹
UNDP (Francophone far-right) 0.44% (+0.12%)
Union for Kalingrad 49.58% (+6.42%) winning 97 seats (+14)
Democrats of the Left 14.89% (-3.56%) winning 30 seats (-8)³
United Liberal Party 9.54% (-0.61%) winning 19 seats (-1)
SDFK 4.33% (-1.69%) winning 9 seats (-3)³
NM-UK 4.02% (+0.13%) winning 8 seats (nc)
Green 2.11% (+0.92%) winning 4 seats (+2)
Union-Independent List 0.24% (-1.16%) winning 0 seats (-2)⁴
Union 35.13% (-5.97%) winning 70 seats (-12)
Communist Party 13.74% (+0.32%) winning 28 seats (+1)
Socialist Workers' 0.87% (-0.91%) winning 0 seats (-3)
RCL 0.42% (+0.10%)
Left Front 15.03% (-0.49%) winning 28 seats (-2)
All others 0.26% (+0.04%)

¹ The UCCD and the League for the South have since left the UfK to form the Centre
² The UfK-Independent List is a list of UfK supporters not part of any UfK component party, similar to Romano Prodi's relation with L'Ulivo in 1995-1996
³ The DL and SDFK have since merged into one common party (19.22% and 39 seats)
⁴ See 2

[k-onmmunist]

NM-UK

[Hash]

2009 General Election

Democrats of the Left-SDFK 31.61% (+12.39%) winning 66 seats (+27)
United Liberal Party 9.85% (+0.31%) winning 20 seats (+1)
NM-UK 4.09% (+0.07%) winning 8 seats (nc)
Green 3.42% (+1.31%) winning 7 seats (+3)
Union-Independent List 0.86% (+0.73%)
Republican Party 0.32% (+0.21%)
Union 50.15% (+15.02%) winning 101 seats (+31)
Conservative 14.66% (-9.86%) winning 30 seats (-20)
KNA 6.94% (-5.17%) winning 14 seats (-11)
UfK-Independent List 0.96% (-0.15%) winning 0 seats (-2)
Popular Alliance 0.67% (-0.34%) winning 0 seats (-2)
NCP 0.67% (-0.30%)
UNDP (Francophone far-right)-Unionist Party 0.53% (+0.09%)
Union for Kalingrad 24.43% (-15.73%) winning 44 seats (-36)
Communist Party 13.91% (+0.17%) winning 29 seats (+1)
Socialist Workers' 0.64% (-0.23%)
RCL 0.56% (+0.14%)
Left Front 15.11% (+0.08%) winning 29 seats (+1)
UCCD 9.04% (+0.51%) winning 19 seats (+2)
League for the South 1.02% (+0.13%) winning 2 seats (+2)
Alliance for Centrism 0.16% (+0.04%)
The Centre 10.22% (+0.68%) winning 21 seats (+4)
All others 0.09% (-0.05%)

[Antonio the Sixth]

2009 General Election

Democrats of the Left-SDFK 31.61% (+12.39%) winning 66 seats (+27)
United Liberal Party 9.85% (+0.31%) winning 20 seats (+1)
NM-UK 4.09% (+0.07%) winning 8 seats (nc)
Green 3.42% (+1.31%) winning 7 seats (+3)
Union-Independent List 0.86% (+0.73%)
Republican Party 0.32% (+0.21%)
Union 50.15% (+15.02%) winning 101 seats (+31)
Conservative 14.66% (-9.86%) winning 30 seats (-20)
KNA 6.94% (-5.17%) winning 14 seats (-11)
UfK-Independent List 0.96% (-0.15%) winning 0 seats (-2)
Popular Alliance 0.67% (-0.34%) winning 0 seats (-2)
NCP 0.67% (-0.30%)
UNDP (Francophone far-right)-Unionist Party 0.53% (+0.09%)
Union for Kalingrad 24.43% (-15.73%) winning 44 seats (-36)
Communist Party 13.91% (+0.17%) winning 29 seats (+1)
Socialist Workers' 0.64% (-0.23%)
RCL 0.56% (+0.14%)
Left Front 15.11% (+0.08%) winning 29 seats (+1)
UCCD 9.04% (+0.51%) winning 19 seats (+2)
League for the South 1.02% (+0.13%) winning 2 seats (+2)
Alliance for Centrism 0.16% (+0.04%)
The Centre 10.22% (+0.68%) winning 21 seats (+4)
All others 0.09% (-0.05%)

Thanks for making the left win !

[Thomas216]

Thanks for making the left win !

And what a win indeed.
What caused the drastic decline in the UFK vote? and why there were elections 2 years in a row, coalition difficulties?

[Hash]

Thanks for making the left win !

And what a win indeed.
What caused the drastic decline in the UFK vote? and why there were elections 2 years in a row, coalition difficulties?

The UFK in 2008 formed a majority government due to the support of two ULP MPs. That gave the government 99 MPs, with 98 needed for a majority.

The government was hurt by the economic crisis and its perceived inaction (the Conservatives are very neoliberal, the KNA less so). The KNA threatened to leave the UFK a number of times during the government's term, mostly on foreign policy issue but also because of its disagreements with the economic policy. In the end, the centrists (UCCD) left the government and brought it down, sparking an early election.

If the KNA had run alone, like the UCCD did, it would have done much better since it became viewed as hypocritical: its platform opposed neoliberalism but it supported neoliberal policies while in government.

The Union has a majority government and will probably last its full term until 2013. This will be the first time since the 2002 Parliament that the government has a majority on its own. In 2006, the Union depended on Communist support, and the CPK ended up bringing the government down (in 2008).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

National Conservative Party for me.