Rutherford county, Tennessee

[iceman]

Seems to be trending left at a modest rate? How long do you think until it flips?
Is it some way similar in demographics as Hamilton, IN or Cobb, GA?

[Roll Roons]

Given Nashville's rapid growth from young people, it's certainly possible. It's still considerably whiter than Cobb or Gwinnett, but that may change this decade. In that sense, perhaps Williamson is the equivalent of Forsyth.

Honestly, Tennessee really could be worth investing in for Democrats. Not just the Nashville metro, but they probably have some room to grow in the Knoxville and Chattanooga areas. It's very possible that Republicans are maxed out in most rural counties. Obviously the state is Safe R in 2024, but who knows what'll happen further down the road.

[Skill and Chance]

Given Nashville's rapid growth from young people, it's certainly possible. It's still considerably whiter than Cobb or Gwinnett, but that may change this decade. In that sense, perhaps Williamson is the equivalent of Forsyth.

Honestly, Tennessee really could be worth investing in for Democrats. Not just the Nashville metro, but they probably have some room to grow in the Knoxville and Chattanooga areas. It's very possible that Republicans are maxed out in most rural counties. Obviously the state is Safe R in 2024, but who knows what'll happen further down the road.

I think it needs another decade or so, but yes, if the can get off the ground in the East TN cities and Nashville's growth continues (and the entertainment industry continues to be safe Dem post-COVID), Dems could contest the state in the 2030's. 

[iceman]

Given Nashville's rapid growth from young people, it's certainly possible. It's still considerably whiter than Cobb or Gwinnett, but that may change this decade. In that sense, perhaps Williamson is the equivalent of Forsyth.

Honestly, Tennessee really could be worth investing in for Democrats. Not just the Nashville metro, but they probably have some room to grow in the Knoxville and Chattanooga areas. It's very possible that Republicans are maxed out in most rural counties. Obviously the state is Safe R in 2024, but who knows what'll happen further down the road.

I think it needs another decade or so, but yes, if the can get off the ground in the East TN cities and Nashville's growth continues (and the entertainment industry continues to be safe Dem post-COVID), Dems could contest the state in the 2030's. 

Assuming the current trends with the AAs continue, I could see the GOP making up for the possible losses in the Nashville metro in Shelby county.

[Skill and Chance]

Given Nashville's rapid growth from young people, it's certainly possible. It's still considerably whiter than Cobb or Gwinnett, but that may change this decade. In that sense, perhaps Williamson is the equivalent of Forsyth.

Honestly, Tennessee really could be worth investing in for Democrats. Not just the Nashville metro, but they probably have some room to grow in the Knoxville and Chattanooga areas. It's very possible that Republicans are maxed out in most rural counties. Obviously the state is Safe R in 2024, but who knows what'll happen further down the road.

I think it needs another decade or so, but yes, if the can get off the ground in the East TN cities and Nashville's growth continues (and the entertainment industry continues to be safe Dem post-COVID), Dems could contest the state in the 2030's. 

Assuming the current trends with the AAs continue, I could see the GOP making up for the possible losses in the Nashville metro in Shelby county.

Maybe, but Shelby actually trended slightly Dem this year.  Southern, urban AA communities didn't really shift right.  It was more apparent in Northern cities and especially in rural areas. 

[iceman]

Given Nashville's rapid growth from young people, it's certainly possible. It's still considerably whiter than Cobb or Gwinnett, but that may change this decade. In that sense, perhaps Williamson is the equivalent of Forsyth.

Honestly, Tennessee really could be worth investing in for Democrats. Not just the Nashville metro, but they probably have some room to grow in the Knoxville and Chattanooga areas. It's very possible that Republicans are maxed out in most rural counties. Obviously the state is Safe R in 2024, but who knows what'll happen further down the road.

I think it needs another decade or so, but yes, if the can get off the ground in the East TN cities and Nashville's growth continues (and the entertainment industry continues to be safe Dem post-COVID), Dems could contest the state in the 2030's. 

Assuming the current trends with the AAs continue, I could see the GOP making up for the possible losses in the Nashville metro in Shelby county.

Maybe, but Shelby actually trended slightly Dem this year.  Southern, urban AA communities didn't really shift right.  It was more apparent in Northern cities and especially in rural areas. 

Yeah, you're right on point on that. But in the future elections, I could see Davidson county voting 10% points or more to the left of Shelby county.

[Sol]

The thing about Tennessee is that even if suburban Nashville, Knoxville, and Chattanooga move left, it doesn't really matter. The Tennessee Republican base is massive--those tendencies probably wouldn't even flip one of the current districts. Plus there isn't much of a reason to think that Knox and Hamilton counties would become steadily Dem--they may be becoming less rock-ribbed Republican, but it isn't like they'll be voting like Atlanta or even Nashville.

That said, I do think Rutherford is a strong potential Democratic pickup in the medium term--I just don't really think it matters too much statewide.

[Skill and Chance]

The thing about Tennessee is that even if suburban Nashville, Knoxville, and Chattanooga move left, it doesn't really matter. The Tennessee Republican base is massive--those tendencies probably wouldn't even flip one of the current districts. Plus there isn't much of a reason to think that Knox and Hamilton counties would become steadily Dem--they may be becoming less rock-ribbed Republican, but it isn't like they'll be voting like Atlanta or even Nashville.

That said, I do think Rutherford is a strong potential Democratic pickup in the medium term--I just don't really think it matters too much statewide.

It's true that rural TN is very powerful.  Dems would need their current Nashville numbers in Knoxville and Chattanooga combined with Nashville and its suburbs voting like Austin to make it work.  That having been said, artsy areas and mountain resort areas are flying left in this environment so I wouldn't be so quick to rule it out.  IMO it's more plausible than Mississippi flipping.  For the near term, the fundamental problem for Dems in the South is that there's only one Atlanta. 

[Tartarus Sauce]

Given Nashville's rapid growth from young people, it's certainly possible. It's still considerably whiter than Cobb or Gwinnett, but that may change this decade. In that sense, perhaps Williamson is the equivalent of Forsyth.

Honestly, Tennessee really could be worth investing in for Democrats. Not just the Nashville metro, but they probably have some room to grow in the Knoxville and Chattanooga areas. It's very possible that Republicans are maxed out in most rural counties. Obviously the state is Safe R in 2024, but who knows what'll happen further down the road.

Tennessee has, proportionally, the largest white Evangelical population of any state in the country. These are hardcore Republican base voters ubiquitously scattered throughout the rural areas like cosmic background radiation, preventing Democrats from breaking over 30% in vast swaths of the state in the Trump era. In around half of the rural counties, Biden couldn't even break 20%. Also, unlike a lot of other states, most rural counties grew in population as well. It's not flipping in this political alignment.

That being said, Democrats should obviously work on expanding their appeal to new groups of voters in places like Chattanooga, Knoxville, and especially the Nashville suburbs. It's always in the best interest of state parties to cultivate their brand even while locked into a minority, but the potential for making inroads into the suburban ring counties around Nashville also serves a more direct utility. Republicans are guaranteed to go in for a gerrymandered carving of Davidson county for the first time in the state's history this round of redistricting. It's in the Democrats vested interest to turn places like Rutherford and Williamsonn as blue as they can in order to make such shenanigans as risky as possible for the GOP post 2030.

[Chips]

2040 or so.

[freepcrusher]

if the democrats can win Rutherford and hold republicans below 60% in Williamson - that should spook them into leaving Nashville alone. As for if they crack Nashville this time, it's hard to know. They didn't do it last time but Haslam was the one thing keeping the state from going into cuckoo territory. Otoh, Nashville is bluer than it was ten years ago.