Rasmussen Generic Ballot Tied

[Rowan]

For the week of April 6-12, the Rasmussen Generic Ballot is tied at 38%. Republicans would vote for the Republican candidate 75%-8%, Democrats would vote for the Democrat 75%-11%, and Independents favor the GOP by a margin of 34%-23%.

This information isn't on the site yet(it won't be released until tomorrow), but since I have the premium subscription, I figured I'd share it early with everyone.

[Verily]

Ummm... *yawn*?

The Republicans were, as I recall, two points ahead a few months ago. Then the Democrats were four points ahead. The generic ballot is meaningless, and it becomes even more meaningless when you only post the numbers favorable to your party.

[Brittain33]

Look at the small margin Rasmussen had before and after the election last November, compare it to reality, and then decide if we're going to need a new thread each time Rasmussen's numbers wobble back to parity.

[Rowan]

Look at the small margin Rasmussen had before and after the election last November, compare it to reality, and then decide if we're going to need a new thread each time Rasmussen's numbers wobble back to parity.

The week before the election he had Democrats up by 6.

[Nhoj]

Look at the small margin Rasmussen had before and after the election last November, compare it to reality, and then decide if we're going to need a new thread each time Rasmussen's numbers wobble back to parity.

The week before the election he had Democrats up by 6.

yes the week before the election when we should actually post this crap right now its meaningless.

[Brittain33]

Look at the small margin Rasmussen had before and after the election last November, compare it to reality, and then decide if we're going to need a new thread each time Rasmussen's numbers wobble back to parity.

The week before the election he had Democrats up by 6.

Yes, and how did the Democrats do on election day? Was it a 6 point advantage in the Congressional vote?

I can easily believe that ballot preferences have shifted 6 points in favor of Republicans (or, more accurately, away from Democrats) since November 1, 2008. Whether that puts the two parties at parity is something completely different.

[Keystone Phil]

But this isn't good for us...


The Research 2000 poll shows Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell with a 23% approval rating and House Republican Leader John Boehner with an 18% approval rating. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stands at a 36% approval rating, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is at 34%. Congressional Democrats overall have a 41% approval rating and Congressional Republicans have an 18% approval rating. Americans give the Democratic Party as a whole a 51% approval rating, versus just 26% for the Republicans.

http://politics1.com/

[Rowan]

But this isn't good for us...


The Research 2000 poll shows Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell with a 23% approval rating and House Republican Leader John Boehner with an 18% approval rating. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stands at a 36% approval rating, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is at 34%. Congressional Democrats overall have a 41% approval rating and Congressional Republicans have an 18% approval rating. Americans give the Democratic Party as a whole a 51% approval rating, versus just 26% for the Republicans.

http://politics1.com/

Phil, it's a Kos poll. Go look at the partisan breakdown in the poll, and try to come back without laughing.

[Holmes]

Yeah, when polls show Republicans with 30% approval and Democrats in the 50%'s, I can't take these generic ballot polls seriously.

[Holmes]

Phil, it's a Kos poll. Go look at the partisan breakdown in the poll, and try to come back without laughing.

What about the recent New York Times poll?

http://wizbangblue.com/2009/04/07/new-poll-has-obama-approval-at-66-and-republican-party-approval-at-just-31-the-lowest-in-25-years.php

[Rowan]

Phil, it's a Kos poll. Go look at the partisan breakdown in the poll, and try to come back without laughing.

What about the recent New York Times poll?

http://wizbangblue.com/2009/04/07/new-poll-has-obama-approval-at-66-and-republican-party-approval-at-just-31-the-lowest-in-25-years.php

It's the NEW YORK TIMES and CBSNews. LOL. Check the party breakdown. If you don't poll many Republicans, of course you're going to get the results that you want, err I mean results like that.

[Holmes]

Moral of the story: no one wants to poll Republicans?

[Mr.Phips]

Way too many undecideds to take this seriously. 

[Rowan]

Moral of the story: no one wants to poll Republicans?

They don't if they want to get the results they are looking for to keep a narrative going that this guy is so popular.

[Brittain33]

Check the party breakdown. If you don't poll many Republicans, of course you're going to get the results that you want, err I mean results like that.

The party breakdown looks the way it does because the R brand is toxic and people aren't self-identifying that way.

[Rowan]

Check the party breakdown. If you don't poll many Republicans, of course you're going to get the results that you want, err I mean results like that.

The party breakdown looks the way it does because the R brand is toxic and people aren't self-identifying that way.

Let's see, exit polls say 33% Republican, Rasmussen finds 33% Republican, but yet Newsweek finds 22% and CBSNews/NYT finds 23%? Come on now.

[Brittain33]

Check the party breakdown. If you don't poll many Republicans, of course you're going to get the results that you want, err I mean results like that.

The party breakdown looks the way it does because the R brand is toxic and people aren't self-identifying that way.

Let's see, exit polls say 33% Republican, Rasmussen finds 33% Republican, but yet Newsweek finds 22% and CBSNews/NYT finds 23%? Come on now.

People are much more likely to identify with a party, rather than as an independent, when they've literally just voted for a major party candidate. (You didn't note that the Democratic number from exit polls to NYT stayed static at 39%, instead of increasing.) That makes sense. Now it's several months later, and one party that was reasonably well organized in '08 has gone out into the wilderness and lacks a public face. People who identified as Democratic strongly, still have Obama to cheer on and still largely approve of him. There are a lot of people who voted for McCain/PALIN and called themselves Republican in November, who now are feeling disconnected from the party because there is no figure for them to identify with and they don't like how that party is doing in Congress. So they identify as Independent, and are registering unhappiness for the President they didn't vote for. None of this is new.

[Tender Branson]

Question: Why is RealClearPolitics adding Rasmussen's 1 point advantage for the GOP but not FOX News' 12 point advantage for the Democrats or Democracy Corps' advantage of 10 points, also for the Democrats ?