http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/4201I don't normally post stuff like this because Nym usually is all over it or someone else posts the obvious. But it's been around for a while and gone ignored...
Big Movers
Thanks to a new mountain of data from the 2008 election, there are many districts where the PVI score shifted significantly between the 110th Congress and the 111th Congress. The replacement of 2000 election data with 2008 election data accounts for these big swings, although it should be noted that the national averages we used to calculate PVI changed as well, from a Democratic value of 48.8 percent (Kerry’s share of the two-party vote) to 51.3 percent (Kerry and Obama’s average share of the two-party vote).
Getting More Republican
Here is a list of the 50 districts where Republicans have made the greatest strides in presidential-level performance, as measured by comparing pre-2008 PVI scores to post-2008 scores:
District Member Party Old PVI New PVI Difference
AL-04 Aderholt, Robert B. R R+16 R+26 10 pts
TN-04 Davis, Lincoln D R+3 R+13 10 pts
NY-09 Weiner, Anthony D. D D+14 D+5 9 pts
TN-06 Gordon, Bart D R+4 R+13 9 pts
OK-02 Boren, Dan D R+5 R+14 9 pts
AR-01 Berry, Marion D D+1 R+8 8 pts
KY-05 Rogers, Harold R R+8 R+16 8 pts
AR-04 Ross, Mike D EVEN R+7 8 pts
TN-01 Roe, Phil R R+14 R+21 7 pts
LA-03 Melancon, Charlie D R+5 R+12 7 pts
WV-03 Rahall, Nick J., II D EVEN R+6 7 pts
TN-08 Tanner, John S. D EVEN R+6 7 pts
LA-07 Boustany, Charles W. R R+7 R+14 6 pts
OK-03 Lucas, Frank D. R R+18 R+24 6 pts
FL-19 Wexler, Robert D D+21 D+15 6 pts
TN-07 Blackburn, Marsha R R+12 R+18 6 pts
AL-05 Griffith, Parker D R+6 R+12 6 pts
NY-03 King, Peter T. R D+2 R+4 6 pts
NY-08 Nadler, Jerrold D D+28 D+22 6 pts
NY-05 Ackerman, Gary L. D D+18 D+12 5 pts
PA-12 Murtha, John P. D D+5 R+1 5 pts
LA-01 Scalise, Steve R R+18 R+24 5 pts
GA-09 Deal, Nathan R R+23 R+28 5 pts
FL-20 Wasserman Schultz, Debbie D D+18 D+13 5 pts
NY-13 McMahon, Mike D D+1 R+4 5 pts
OK-04 Cole, Tom R R+13 R+18 5 pts
TN-02 Duncan, John J. R R+11 R+16 5 pts
TX-08 Brady, Kevin R R+20 R+25 5 pts
NJ-04 Smith, Christopher H. R R+1 R+6 5 pts
TN-03 Wamp, Zach R R+8 R+13 5 pts
MA-04 Frank, Barney D D+19 R+14 5 pts
AR-02 Snyder, Vic D EVEN R+5 5 pts
AR-03 Boozman, John R R+11 R+16 5 pts
LA-04 Fleming, John R R+7 R+11 4 pts
AL-03 Rogers, Mike R R+4 R+9 4 pts
LA-05 Alexander, Rodney R R+10 R+14 4 pts
KY-01 Whitfield, Ed R R+10 R+15 4 pts
NJ-09 Rothman, Steven R. D D+13 D+9 4 pts
VA-09 Boucher, Rick D R+7 R+11 4 pts
AZ-02 Franks, Trent R R+9 R+13 4 pts
TX-04 Hall, Ralph M. R R+17 R+21 4 pts
TX-13 Thornberry, Mac R R+25 R+29 4 pts
MA-09 Lynch, Stephen F. D D+15 D+11 4 pts
MA-06 Tierney, John F. D D+11 D+7 4 pts
MA-03 McGovern, James P. D D+13 D+9 4 pts
PA-18 Murphy, Tim R R+2 R+6 4 pts
NY-04 McCarthy, Carolyn D D+9 D+6 4 pts
AL-06 Bachus, Spencer R R+25 R+29 4 pts
NJ-06 Pallone, Frank D D+12 D+8 4 pts
NY-02 Israel, Steve D D+8 D+4 4 pts
Leading the pack is GOP Rep. Robert Aderholt’s seat in northern Alabama, which gave Al Gore 37 percent of the vote in 2000 but gave Obama just 22 percent in 2008. Deep South districts like Aderholt’s were heavily contested as recently as the 1990s, but would be out of reach for most Democratic hopefuls today.
Somewhat surprisingly, Democrats currently occupy a majority of the seats on this list, including seven of the top ten. Plenty of these Democrats look safe today thanks to their conservatism and their strong personal appeal. For example, Rep. Dan Boren’s district in eastern Oklahoma gave McCain 66 percent of the vote but simultaneously reelected Boren with 70 percent.
But in a bad year for Democrats, or when seats open up, “ticking time bomb” districts such as these could be worrisome for congressional Democrats. Districts on this list accounted for only one of House Democrats’ 54 pickups between 2006 and 2008; in some places, competing here would have amounted to going seriously against the grain.
It’s also worth noting that these GOP-trending seats aren’t exclusive to the South. The Northeast and South Florida are home to 19 of these districts where Obama seriously underperformed Gore, and in some cases Kerry. New York Rep. Anthony Weiner’s heavily Jewish district was actually a close call for Obama in 2008, even though it is reliably Democratic at the congressional level.
Finally, seven of these districts are in Tennessee, where Gore’s performance in non-major metro areas was significantly higher than Kerry’s and Obama’s. This home-state effect factored into the old PVI, but was not taken into account in the new scores.
Getting More Democratic
Here is a list of the 50 districts where Democrats have made the greatest strides in presidential-level performance, as measured by comparing pre-2008 PVI scores to post-2008 scores:
District Member Party Old PVI New PVI Difference
GA-13 Scott, David D D+10 D+15 5 pts
IN-07 Carson, Andre D D+9 D+14 5 pts
TN-09 Cohen, Steve D D+18 D+23 5 pts
NC-12 Watt, Melvin L. D D+11 D+16 4 pts
IL-08 Bean, Melissa L. D R+5 R+1 4 pts
VT-AL Welch, Peter D D+9 D+13 4 pts
HI-02 Hirono, Mazie K. D D+10 D+14 4 pts
TX-25 Doggett, Lloyd D D+1 D+6 4 pts
TX-24 Marchant, Kenny R R R+15 R+11 4 pts
HI-01 Abercrombie, Neil D D+7 D+11 4 pts
MT-AL Rehberg, Dennis R. R R+11 R+7 4 pts
TX-03 Johnson, Sam R R+17 R+14 3 pts
PA-16 Pitts, Joseph R. R R+11 R+8 3 pts
IL-06 Roskam, Peter J. R R+3 EVEN 3 pts
IL-13 Biggert, Judy R R+5 R+1 3 pts
IL-14 Foster, Bill D R+5 R+1 3 pts
IN-04 Buyer, Steve R R+17 R+14 3 pts
TX-10 McCaul, Michael T. R R+13 R+10 3 pts
VA-10 Wolf, Frank R. R R+5 R+2 3 pts
VA-11 Connolly, Gerry D R+1 D+2 3 pts
TX-32 Sessions, Pete R R+11 R+8 3 pts
CO-04 Markey, Betsy D R+8 R+6 3 pts
TX-07 Culberson, John Abney R R+16 R+13 3 pts
NV-02 Heller, Dean R R+8 R+5 3 pts
MI-03 Ehlers, Vernon J. R R+9 R+6 3 pts
TX-31 Carter, John R. R R+16 R+14 3 pts
IN-05 Burton, Dan R R+20 R+17 3 pts
CO-01 DeGette, Diana D D+18 D+21 3 pts
ND-AL Pomeroy, Earl D R+13 R+10 3 pts
CA-06 Woolsey, Lynn C. D D+21 D+23 3 pts
CA-01 Thompson, Mike D D+10 D+13 3 pts
CO-02 Polis, Jared D D+8 D+11 3 pts
TX-21 Smith, Lamar S. R R+16 R+14 3 pts
NC-13 Miller, Brad D D+2 D+5 3 pts
NE-02 Terry, Lee R R+9 R+6 3 pts
VA-08 Moran, James P. D D+14 D+16 2 pts
CA-23 Capps, Lois D D+9 D+12 2 pts
CA-14 Eshoo, Anna G. D D+18 D+21 2 pts
IN-03 Souder, Mark E. R R+16 R+14 2 pts
CA-48 Campbell, John R R+8 R+6 2 pts
GA-04 Johnson, Henry C. 'Hank' D D+22 D+24 2 pts
NM-01 Heinrich, Martin D D+2 D+5 2 pts
IL-10 Kirk, Mark Steven R D+4 D+6 2 pts
OR-01 Wu, David D D+6 D+8 2 pts
IN-02 Donnelly, Joe D R+4 R+2 2 pts
IL-16 Manzullo, Donald A. R R+4 R+2 2 pts
CO-07 Perlmutter, Ed D D+2 D+4 2 pts
UT-02 Matheson, Jim D R+17 R+15 2 pts
CA-17 Farr, Sam D D+17 D+19 2 pts
OH-15 Kilroy, Mary Jo D R+1 D+1 2 pts
Compared to the rest of the country, the districts where Obama made the greatest advances versus past Democratic performance were disproportionately western and suburban. New Mexico’s 1st CD, for example, was a classic swing district for over a decade but now tilts Democratic. It strongly supported Obama and new Rep. Martin Heinrich in 2008.
Demographic changes are responsible for new electoral dynamics in many districts on this list. The rapidly increasing African-American percentage in Georgia Rep. David Scott’s south suburban Atlanta district has made it much more Democratic and has shielded Scott from political threats. And a rapidly rising Hispanic population in Dallas-area Rep. Kenny Marchant’s district has boosted Democratic numbers there, although it is still quite safe for the GOP.
If current lines stay more or less the same after 2012 redistricting – and that is a big if – then a handful of these districts could be promising long-term projects for Democrats. Districts currently held by GOP Reps. Joe Pitts of Pennsylvania, Michael McCaul of Texas, and Frank Wolf of Virginia seem to be getting friendlier to Democrats every cycle.
Of course, it should be noted that an Obama home-state effect is a major reason why both Hawaii districts and six suburban Chicago districts appear on this list.
